Wednesday, November 17, 2021

Market Update Week 2021 Week 46

BTC and ETH Market Update:

BTC sold off on great news after making a new record high price on 8th November 2021 which suggests the good news was already priced in at the time of the news release. The great news was high inflation data coming out of the USA last week not seen since 1990, apparently. Other major events were the Taproot upgrade for the BTC network and President Biden signing the Infrastructure Bill which carries many burdensome requirements for those participating in cryptocurrency. These events may have also had significant impacts on the recent price action. Sadly, the new record high prices ended up being fake-outs, rendering my prior analysis over the past few weeks obsolete. To reduce the downside risk I foresaw due to the prior analysis being incorrect, I ended up scaling out of the last of my positions for BTC and ETH around $63,000 USD and $4,500 USD, respectively. I haven't received a sell signal yet for my long term system but I'm ok with exiting for now and observing from the sidelines to see how the market evolves in the short and medium term.

Furthermore, the Bitcoin Futures Open Interest exceeded levels last seen in April. Historically, this level of open interest has led to a dip in price due to market participants being somewhat overly leveraged. This makes sense since traders are probably aware of PlanB and Willy Woo's fundamental BTC models which suggest that "$100k USD" is imminent, inducing a false sense of confidence and over-leveraging into positions that they are unable to hold, arguably one of the factors causing BTC to selloff.

News Roundup:

Big Inflation data: https://www.reuters.com/business/futures-tick-lower-inflation-worries-take-hold-ahead-cpi-data-2021-11-10/?utm_source=engagement_mailer&utm_medium=email&utm_content=2021-11-10&utm_campaign=daily

Here’s What Is Keeping Bitcoin From Rallying to New All-Time Highs, According to On-Chain Analyst Willy Woo: https://dailyhodl.com/2021/11/15/heres-what-is-keeping-bitcoin-from-rallying-to-new-all-time-highs-according-to-on-chain-analyst-willy-woo/

Taproot Update for BTC: https://forkast.news/taproot-bitcoin-upgrade-what-it-means/

Biden Signs Infrastructure Bill: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-15/senators-seek-crypto-reporting-fix-as-biden-signs-infrastructure?sref=323RPL5z

‘Bull market distribution has begun’ — 5 things to watch in Bitcoin this week: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bull-market-distribution-has-begun-5-things-to-watch-in-bitcoin-this-week

SEC have successfully protected investors from +12,700% gains LOL: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-halts-losses-amid-criticism-etf-rejections-have-cost-investors-12-700-gains

Miami will pay residents a 'bitcoin yield' from its city cryptocurrency, Mayor Suarez says: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/miami-bitcoin-yield-miamicoin-crypto-francis-suarez-mayor-digital-wallet-2021-11

NewYorkCityCoin launching this week with Mayor-elect Eric Adams’ blessing: https://cointelegraph.com/news/new-york-coin-launching-this-week-with-mayor-elect-eric-adams-blessing

Here’s Why Bitcoin Is Just Now Entering the Main Phase of the Bull Market, Says On-Chain Analyst Will Clemente: https://dailyhodl.com/2021/11/13/heres-why-bitcoin-is-just-now-entering-the-main-phase-of-the-bull-market-says-on-chain-analyst-will-clemente/

This Week On Crypto Twitter: https://decrypt.co/86057/this-week-on-crypto-twitter-discord-backs-out-of-crypto-while-twitter-wades-in

Futures Open Interest \"spike\" may suggest overly leveraged positions.

Perpetual Futures Open Interest also suggest overly leveraged positions.

Outflow of BTC from exchanges. Will this reverse due to panic from falling prices?

Will large whales continue holding during the selloff?

Warren Buffett approves LEL


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