Huobi Observation
Huobi Study Club reminds that the market will see the Fed's monetary policy resolution. It is estimated that Fed officials will accelerate contracting bond purchases pace and signal a rate hike in 2022. The price of gold, oil and Bitcoin will fall due to the resolution if the Fed's is hawkish.
The Federal Reserve held a monetary policy meeting on Tuesday(the local time) and the decision will be announced on Wednesday. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will then hold a press conference to announce the resolution to accelerate finishing the bond-buying program and signal 2022 is the year to start raising rates, even though the market FOMC will keep interest rates unchanged at 0-0.25% this week.
Huobi Study Club believes that the impact of the previous hawkish Fed has mostly been absorbed by the market and it will focus more on hawkish comments, dot plot and economic forecasts, with the interest rate dot plot receiving particular attention.
More than half of those surveyed estimated that the median forecast of 18 officials is two rate hikes next year after the Fed's two-day policy meeting on Wednesday (local time), according to Bloomberg. There are some changes compared to September’s forecast. Policymakers were evenly split on the forecast for the first rate hike in 2022 or 2023 during that time.
In addition, America will release retail sales data for November at 21:30 Singapore time on December 15. Monthly rate of U.S. retail sales in November is expected to increase by 0.8%, the media surveys showed. U.S. retail sales rose at a monthly rate of 1.7% in October, reaching the highest level in nearly seven months. Retail sales data is an important guide to the current state of the U.S. economy and outlook, as it directly reflects changes in consumer spending.
Huobi Study Club believes that there are no major events affecting the Fed's interest rate resolution recently, and it basically becomes the market consensus that the Fed will present hawkishness. However, it is still needed to watch out: hawkish news may not become bearish news since market expectations of the Fed's hawkish stance had been much absorbed after the announcement. The vague expectations and inexplicable interpretations may have a reverse impact on the market. Therefore, the risk needs to be controlled.
Regardless the detail changes in the interest rate resolution, from the long-period view, the global capital market may see a decline with the further interest rate hike policy.
No comments:
Post a Comment