RIOT announced Corsicana in April 2022:
The Expansion has begun with the development of an initial 400 megawatts (“MW”) of capacity on a 265-acre site, with immersion-cooled mining and hosting operations expected to commence in July 2023.
400MW in July 2023.
Timeline update in the Q3 announcement 3 days ago:
The first phase of the Corsicana Facility will consist of 400 MW, with Bitcoin mining operations expected to commence by the fourth quarter of 2023.
400MW in Q4 2023. OK, already a schedule slip.
The real interesting note is hidden in their letter to the US house in Sep 2022. On page 4, it shows the forecasted electricity usage per year of the corsicana facility:
| Year | GWh |
|---|---|
| 2022 | 0 |
| 2023 | 199 |
| 2024 | 1,727 |
| 2025 | 2,405 |
Using a 400MW capacity, we can turn GWh into days of uptime*:
| Year | Uptime in days |
|---|---|
| 2022 | 0 |
| 2023 | 20 |
| 2024 | 180 |
| 2025 | 250 |
RIOT isn't forecasting 400MW running in Q4 2023. They don't even forecast this by 2025.
It's clear that "operations expected to commence" doesn't mean 400MW of capacity, it means a couple machines. That's technically not a lie, but is very misleading.
By April 2024, we'll have had another BTC halving, reducing revenue by half. At current BTC prices, RIOT would be losing money just on the electricity. And this is before Corsicana really even gets going.
(*)The formula is GWh # / 0.4 / 24.
0.4 = 400MW and there are 24h in a day.
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