According to a recent analysis called Charles Edward from Capriole Investments this what could shape Bitcoin's path in 2024:
Bitcoin as an Inflation Hedge: Despite skepticism, Bitcoin proved its mettle as an inflation hedge during the 2021 surge. It emerged as a strong performer when it mattered.
The Upcoming Halving: The April 2024 Bitcoin halving event is a key focus. It will substantially reduce Bitcoin's supply growth rate to just 0.8% annually, putting it below Gold's 1.6% for the first time. This supply constraint could be a pivotal factor.
The ETF Potential: Regulatory clarity is emerging, with the CFTC classifying Bitcoin as a commodity in 2021. We're also observing Blackrock's Bitcoin ETF application and the SEC revisiting Grayscale's spot ETF rejection. The analyst expects a favorable outcome, possibly in October 2023 or January 2024. Interestingly, the approval of the Gold ETF in 2004 resulted in a massive +350% return and a seven-year bull run.
In summary, while acknowledging short-term market volatility, the analyst maintains an optimistic outlook for Bitcoin in the long term. The analyst points to the typical pattern in Bitcoin's four-year cycles, where the majority of gains occur in a 12-18 month period, followed by 2-3 years of stability or decline. The analyst believes that 2024 could stand out in this cycle, supported by compelling data and these significant catalysts.
What do you expect to happen?
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