First-Time Crypto Investor: Is a $40k BTC Investment for Short-Term Gains (few days after inauguration day) a Good Idea?

Hi everyone,
I’m new to cryptocurrency investments and looking for some objective advice. I recently received a $40k end-of-year bonus from my employer and opted not to have taxes withheld immediately. My plan is to invest the full amount and, ideally, generate enough short-term gains to help offset the tax burden when payment is due.

My Investment Plan:
• I’m considering putting the $40k entirely into Bitcoin (BTC) because I believe the upcoming political events, like Trump’s inauguration, might lead to a price increase.
• I’ll configure an auto-sell order to minimize potential losses if the price drops below a certain threshold.
• My goal is to exit quickly if I see a profit of 10-25% — I don’t intend to stay in the market long-term, at least not on this run.

My Concerns:

1. Market Volatility: How likely is it for BTC prices to increase by at least 10% in the short term, considering the political climate?
2. Feasibility: Is this strategy practical for a first-time investor without extensive experience in crypto markets?
3. Risk Management: Are there additional precautions I should take to protect my investment beyond auto-sell orders?
4. Platform Suggestions: I’ve been verified on Kraken but am open to using River or Strike. Are these platforms suitable for my plan?

Key Considerations:
• I understand cryptocurrency markets can be highly volatile and unpredictable.

• I’m trying to avoid excessive greed—once I reach my profit goal, I’ll cash out.

• My ultimate aim is to use the gains to pay off part of the tax due and have a larger amount of money to put a down payment on a house in the short term.

I’d love to hear from experienced investors:

• Does this approach seem sound?

• Are there better ways to achieve a similar short-term return on investment?

• Any pitfalls I should watch out for as a first-timer?

Thanks in advance for your insights!