Wednesday, March 12, 2025

The Daily Market Flux - Your Complete Market Rundown (03/12/2025)

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Market Rallies on Inflation Data; S&P 500 and Nasdaq Surge in Opening Trade; Correction Mid-Day However.

S&P 500 futures rise in premarket trading, with major indices opening higher. Inflation data calms investor nerves, leading to a surge in stock futures across the board. Intel and Tesla are among the top movers, while analysts debate the market's direction amid recent volatility. However, The market's rebound lost momentum mid-day as the Dow sank and the S&P 500 approached correction territory.

US Inflation Cools in February, Boosting Markets Despite Lingering Tariff Concerns

February's US CPI rose 2.8% year-over-year, below the expected 2.9%. The 0.2% monthly increase was lower than anticipated, easing inflation concerns. However, tariff fears may impact future readings. Markets reacted positively to the cooler inflation data.

Trump's Steel and Aluminum Tariffs Trigger EU Retaliation, Escalating Trade War

President Trump's 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports took effect, escalating trade tensions. The EU responded with countermeasures, planning duties on $28 billion worth of US goods, matching the economic scope of US tariffs.

Trump Escalates Trade Tensions, Threatens Tariffs on EU and Canada

President Trump criticizes EU, Canada, and Ireland's trade practices, threatening tariffs on cars and dairy. He accuses the EU of targeting US companies and blocking farm products, vowing to win the "financial battle" and address trade deficits.

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🌍 Geopolitics Events

🔥 Trump’s Tariffs Escalate Trade War with EU

Trump's 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports have triggered EU countermeasures, with plans to impose duties on $28 billion worth of American goods.
The EU's retaliatory tariffs are set to take effect on April 1, intensifying trade tensions.

🚗 Trump Threatens Car Tariffs, Targets Canada & Ireland

Trump criticized the EU, Canada, and Ireland over trade practices, threatening tariffs on European cars and calling out Canada’s dairy tariffs and Ireland’s corporate tax policies.

🏛️ FTC Investigates Microsoft Under Trump’s Administration

The Trump-led FTC is conducting an extensive antitrust probe into Microsoft, continuing scrutiny of big tech from the Biden era.

⛽ Trump Reacts to Oil Prices, Sends Envoys to Russia

Trump welcomed declining oil prices and revealed U.S. envoys are in Russia for ceasefire talks, but said further steps depend on Russia.

💰 US Budget Deficit Hits $307B in February

The U.S. federal budget deficit reached $307 billion in February, surpassing last year’s $296 billion. The fiscal year deficit has ballooned to $1.15 trillion.

🇬🇱 Greenland Elects Pro-Business Party, Rejects Trump Influence

The center-right Demokraatit party won Greenland’s election, rejecting Trump’s interest in the mineral-rich island and advocating a gradual approach to independence.

🛡️ European Defense Ministers Discuss Military Procurement & Ukraine

European defense leaders met in Paris to coordinate military procurement and security strategies for Ukraine, with 15 countries participating.

🇷🇺 Putin Visits Kursk as Russia Claims Ukraine Gains

Putin visited Kursk following reports of Russian forces surrounding Ukrainian troops. Western allies are working to bolster Ukraine’s negotiating power.

🏛️ Schumer Opposes GOP Spending Bill, Pushes Alternative Plan

Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer claims Republicans lack votes for their spending bill and urges an alternative measure to prevent a shutdown.

🏭 Trump Seeks to Overturn Biden’s Coal Emissions Rules

The Trump administration aims to roll back Biden-era soot emission limits for coal plants, potentially aiding the coal industry.

📉 White House Adviser Forecasts Modest 2-2.5% GDP Growth

White House Economic Adviser Hassett expects U.S. GDP to grow between 2-2.5% in Q1, suggesting moderate economic expansion.

🇨🇳 China Threatens Retaliation Over Trump’s Tariffs

China vowed to counter Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs, escalating trade tensions between the two nations.

🇪🇺 Trump Alleges EU Formed to Exploit U.S.

Trump claimed the EU was designed to take advantage of the U.S., questioning its defense spending benefits.

📈 Trump Predicts Market Surge

Trump confidently forecasted a significant stock market upswing.

💰 Trump Ties Tax Cuts to Democratic Cooperation

Trump signaled potential tax cuts, contingent on Democratic collaboration in policymaking.

🏛️ Senator Shaheen’s Retirement Reshapes 2026 Senate Race

New Hampshire’s Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen will not seek reelection, creating a competitive Senate race.

⛽ Oil And Gas Events

📉 EIA Report Shows Gasoline Draw, Modest Crude Build

The latest EIA data showed a 1.448M barrel rise in U.S. crude inventories, lower than the expected 2.1M barrels, while gasoline stocks dropped sharply by 5.737M barrels.
Distillate stocks and Cushing crude inventories also declined, while refinery utilization increased slightly.

🇰🇿 Kazakhstan Exceeds OPEC+ Quota, Promises Compliance

Kazakhstan's February oil output surged past its OPEC+ quota due to Tengiz oilfield expansion, though the country pledged future compliance.
OPEC kept its demand forecast steady despite the overproduction, highlighting the ongoing tension between national growth and collective agreements.

📊 OPEC+ Output Increases, Demand Forecast Unchanged

OPEC+ crude output rose by 363,000 bpd in February, mainly due to Kazakhstan, reaching 41.01M bpd.
Despite trade concerns, OPEC held its 2025 oil demand forecast at 1.45M bpd and 2026 at 1.43M bpd, signaling confidence in steady global consumption.

🌍 Global LNG and Energy Market Developments

TotalEnergies awaits a $4.7B U.S. loan for its $20B LNG project in Mozambique, while Egypt is negotiating with Germany to lease an LNG unit for summer supply.
Morgan Stanley sees nuclear energy investments gaining traction, citing Amazon’s market strategy.

🇻🇪 Venezuela Seeks Talks with US Amid Chevron Exit

Venezuela’s business sector is pushing for renewed U.S.-Venezuela negotiations after Chevron’s license cancellation, as the oil giant explores alternative ventures in Mexico and the Middle East.

🏛️ Oil Executives to Meet Trump at White House

U.S. oil industry leaders will meet with President Trump to discuss key industry concerns, including tariffs, trade, and LNG exports.

💻 Technology Events

🚀 Intel Appoints Lip-Bu Tan as CEO, Stock Jumps 12%

Intel named semiconductor veteran Lip-Bu Tan as its new CEO, effective March 18, sparking an 11-12% stock surge.
Investors see the move as a key step in Intel’s turnaround efforts, though challenges remain in reclaiming market leadership.

⚛️ D-Wave Achieves Quantum Computing Milestone

D-Wave Quantum Inc. claims its quantum computer outperformed a top classical supercomputer, marking a major quantum supremacy breakthrough and boosting industry stocks.

🚗 Jaguar Land Rover Scraps India EV Plans

Jaguar Land Rover canceled plans to produce EVs in India at Tata’s factory, citing low demand, affecting Tata’s $1 billion investment in the facility.

📊 Earnings Events

🚀 Adobe Beats Q1 Estimates, But Guidance Disappoints

Adobe reported strong Q1 results, with EPS of $5.08 (vs. $4.97 expected) and revenue of $5.71B (vs. $5.66B forecast), driven by AI-powered tools and digital subscription growth.
However, weaker-than-expected Q2 and full-year guidance dampened investor sentiment.

✈️ Cathay Pacific Posts Modest Profit Growth Amid Travel Rebound

Cathay Pacific’s annual profit grew 1%, surpassing expectations thanks to higher passenger volume and strong cargo demand, but normalizing ticket prices and trade risks pose future challenges.

🔻 SentinelOne Stock Plunges on Weak Revenue Outlook

SentinelOne delivered strong Q4 results but issued a gloomy revenue forecast, citing tough competition and reduced enterprise cybersecurity spending, sending its stock sharply lower.

🪙 Crypto Events

💰 Binance Secures Record $2B Investment from Abu Dhabi’s MGX

Binance received a $2B investment from Abu Dhabi’s MGX, marking the largest institutional investment in crypto history, boosting confidence in Binance’s market dominance.

📈 Bitcoin Surges Past $84K Amid Lower Inflation, Despite ETF Outflows

Bitcoin rallied above $84,000 following softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data, but ETF outflows of $371M on March 11th raised investor caution.
ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood took advantage of the dip, buying Tesla, Robinhood, and Coinbase shares, while Starknet announced a Bitcoin-Ethereum bridge to expand DeFi integration.

🌍 Crypto Adoption Gains Momentum with Institutional and National Developments

Bolivia approved crypto payments for fuel, and Russia’s Central Bank eased crypto investment restrictions, signaling increasing adoption.
Franklin Templeton filed for a Solana ETF, boosting institutional interest, while Deutsche Bank likened Bitcoin to gold, suggesting a U.S. Bitcoin reserve could set global standards.

💎 Rumble Buys $17.1M in Bitcoin for Treasury Reserves

Rumble invested $17.1M in Bitcoin, joining a growing list of companies adding crypto to their balance sheets.