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Fed's Waller: Tariff Shock May Prompt Earlier Rate Cuts Despite Temporary Inflation Spike
Fed Governor Waller warns that new tariff policies could significantly impact the US economy, potentially leading to rate cuts. He outlines scenarios where inflation could peak at 3-5%, but believes the effect will be temporary.
Nvidia's $500 Billion Bet on American-Made AI Supercomputers
Nvidia announces plans to manufacture AI supercomputers entirely in the US for the first time. The company aims to produce up to $500 billion worth of AI infrastructure over four years, partnering with TSMC, Foxconn, and Wistron in Arizona and Texas.
Stock Markets Events
Global Stocks Rally, but U.S. Tech Sector Loses Steam in Volatile Trading Session
Global stock markets rallied on Monday, with European indices closing higher across the board. The U.S. market initially saw gains, led by tech giants like Apple, Nvidia, and Palantir, but later pared those gains. The Nasdaq turned negative after being up over 2% earlier in the day. Investors reacted positively to a potential shift in tariff policies, with Apple leading the way higher. However, market sentiment remains cautious, with some analysts drawing parallels to past market behaviors. The day's trading also saw significant movements in options and short positions for various stocks. Despite the volatility, some experts suggest that value-focused ETFs may offer safety in a potential bear market.
S&P 500's 'Death Cross' Emerges: Analysts Urge Caution, Not Panic
The S&P 500 has triggered its first 'death cross' since March 2022, with the 50-day moving average falling below the 200-day. Analysts suggest this may not be as dire as it sounds, noting that historically, only 3 out of 11 such crosses since 2000 preceded major market downturns.
Geopolitics Events
China and Vietnam Forge Closer Ties with 45 Cooperation Agreements During Xi's Visit
China and Vietnam strengthened ties during President Xi Jinping's state visit, signing 45 bilateral cooperation agreements. The deals cover various sectors, including AI and agricultural trade. Xi emphasized China's open market for Vietnam and called for frequent leadership exchanges. This visit marks Xi's first overseas trip of the year, aiming to bolster regional relationships in Southeast Asia.
Trump Administration Faces Legal Challenge Over "Liberation Day" Tariffs
A legal group has filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration in the U.S. Court of International Trade, challenging the recently imposed "Liberation Day" tariffs.
El Salvador's Bukele Meets Trump: Deportations and Prison Plans Top Agenda
President Nayib Bukele of El Salvador is set to meet with President Trump at the White House, focusing on deportation policies and prison plans. The visit comes amid ongoing US deportations of alleged gang members to El Salvador. Bukele has become a key figure in Trump's immigration strategy, raising questions about the treatment of deportees in El Salvador's prison system.
Trump Threatens Military Action Against Iran Over Nuclear Program Delays
President Trump accuses Iran of deliberately delaying nuclear talks and warns of potential military action if Tehran continues pursuing nuclear weapons. He reaffirms willingness to strike Iran's nuclear facilities if necessary, emphasizing that Iran must abandon its nuclear ambitions or face severe consequences. The situation highlights ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran.
South Africa Bolsters US Relations: Ex-Deputy Finance Minister Named Special Envoy
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has appointed Mcebisi Jonas, former Deputy Finance Minister, as special envoy to the United States. This strategic move aims to strengthen diplomatic ties between the two nations.
Trump: Iran Seeks Deal, Nuclear Weapons Off the Table
Trump claims Iran wants to negotiate but is unsure how. He emphasizes Iran cannot have nuclear weapons and mentions an upcoming meeting. The situation remains tense and uncertain.
Xi Jinping Rallies China and Vietnam Against 'Unilateral Bullying'
President Xi urges China and Vietnam to unite against unilateral bullying, emphasizing cooperation between the two nations. This call for solidarity highlights shared concerns in the region.
Macro Events
NY Fed Survey: Short-Term Inflation Expectations Surge, Job Market Concerns Grow
The New York Federal Reserve's latest consumer survey reveals a significant uptick in short-term inflation expectations. One-year ahead inflation expectations jumped to 3.6% in March from 3.1% in February, while three-year expectations remained steady at 3%. Five-year projections slightly decreased to 2.9%. The survey also indicates growing pessimism about the job market, with unemployment rise expectations reaching their highest level since April 2020. Consumers anticipate increases in rent and food prices, while expectations for home price gains have moderated.
Deutsche Bank Shifts Stance: Predicts Fed Rate Cut in December, More to Follow in 2026
Deutsche Bank revises its forecast, now anticipating a 25 basis point Fed rate cut in December 2024, followed by two more cuts in Q1 2026. This adjustment contrasts with their previous prediction of no cuts until 2025, projecting a terminal rate of 3.5-3.75%.
Trump's Hint at Auto Tariff Relief Boosts Major US Car Stocks
Trump suggests potential tariff relief for US automakers, causing stocks of Ford, GM, and Stellantis to surge. The former president's comments about "helping some car companies" sparked investor optimism in the auto industry.
EU Trade Chief in Washington: Seeking Fair Deal on Tariffs Within 90-Day Window
EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič is in Washington for crucial talks, aiming to resolve unjustified tariffs within a 90-day window. The EU remains open to a fair deal, proposing a reciprocal 0-for-0 tariff on industrial goods. Šefčovič's visit underscores the EU's commitment to constructive dialogue and finding a mutual solution with the U.S., emphasizing the importance of seizing this opportunity for trade negotiations.
BlackRock Turns Bullish on U.S. Stocks After Tariff Pause
BlackRock adopts a bullish stance on U.S. stocks following the Trump administration's 90-day tariff pause, reducing financial accident risks and improving market outlook.
Yellen Warns of Recession Risks as Trump's Tariffs Rattle Markets and Fed Policy
Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warns that Trump's tariffs have significantly increased recession risks. The bond market is causing concern, and Fed's Waller supports interest rate cuts if substantial tariffs persist, highlighting economic uncertainties.
Technology Events
NVIDIA's $500 Billion Gambit: US-Made AI Supercomputers to Reshape Tech Landscape
In a groundbreaking move, NVIDIA has announced plans to manufacture American-made AI supercomputers in the United States for the first time. The tech giant aims to produce up to $500 billion worth of AI infrastructure in the US over the next four years, partnering with TSMC and Foxconn. Production of Blackwell chips has already begun at TSMC's Arizona facilities, while new supercomputer manufacturing plants are being set up with Foxconn in Houston and Wistron in Dallas. NVIDIA has commissioned manufacturing space in Arizona for building and testing Blackwell chips, and in Texas for AI supercomputers. Mass production at the Texas facilities is expected to ramp up within 12 to 15 months. This initiative marks a significant shift in domestic tech and AI infrastructure production, positioning the US as a key player in the global AI race.
OpenAI to Unveil Revolutionary AI Models for Creative Problem-Solving
OpenAI is set to release groundbreaking AI models this week, capable of innovative problem-solving and generating new ideas. This development marks a significant advancement in artificial intelligence technology.
Palantir Stock Surges as NATO Adopts AI Battle System
NATO acquires Palantir's Maven AI-powered warfighting software system, boosting the company's stock and expanding its military technology presence.
OpenAI Unveils GPT-4.1 Series, Microsoft Integrates on Azure AI Platform
OpenAI launches GPT-4.1 series, including mini and nano versions, with improved performance and lower costs. Microsoft announces support for these models on Azure AI, focusing on coding capabilities and fine-tuning options for developers.
Meta to Train AI on EU User Data, Addressing Privacy Issues
Meta plans to use public posts and AI interactions from EU users to train its AI models, following a delayed European rollout due to privacy concerns. The company will notify users about this data usage.
Oil And Gas Events
OPEC Slashes Economic and Oil Demand Forecasts Amid Trade War Concerns
OPEC has revised its global economic and oil demand forecasts downward for 2025 and 2026, citing concerns over trade wars and U.S. tariffs. The organization reduced its 2025 global economic growth projection to 3% from 3.1%, and lowered oil demand growth expectations to 1.30 million bpd from 1.45 million bpd. Similar cuts were made for 2026 forecasts. OPEC also reported a slight decrease in crude production for March. These adjustments reflect the potential impact of ongoing trade tensions on global consumption and economic growth.
Oil Prices Rebound on Tariff Exemptions and Chinese Imports, Despite Recent Market Volatility
Oil prices are on the rise due to tariff exemptions and a rebound in Chinese imports, despite recent volatility. Kazakhstan's oil output has decreased in early April but remains above OPEC+ quotas. JPMorgan has cut its 2025 Brent crude forecast, while the EU seeks a new fossil fuel deal with the US. Russia's seaborne oil product exports increased in March, and China's oil imports hit a 20-month high. Experts suggest the recent price slump below $60 may have been an overreaction, as the market adjusts to shifting signals on tariffs and global demand. The Chevron-led Tengiz field in Kazakhstan has seen a 3% production drop in early April.
Kazakhstan's Oil Output Drops in April, Yet Remains Above OPEC+ Quota
Kazakhstan's oil production dipped 3% in early April to 1.82 million bpd, still exceeding its OPEC+ quota. March saw a 37,000 bpd increase to 1.852 million bpd. Meanwhile, Russia's output fell below its quota, and overall OPEC+ production decreased in March.
BP Strikes Oil in Gulf of Mexico, Bolstering US Energy Portfolio
BP has made a significant oil discovery in the deepwater US Gulf of Mexico, strengthening its upstream portfolio and highlighting its focus on US energy production. This find supports BP's plans to boost global production.
JP Morgan Cuts Oil Price Outlook as OPEC+ Boosts Output Amid Weak Demand
JP Morgan slashes oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026, citing increased OPEC+ production and weakening global demand. The bank revises Brent and WTI targets downward, reflecting shifting market dynamics.
Corporate Actions Events
Lowe's Expands Pro Business with $1.33 Billion Acquisition of Artisan Design Group
Lowe's, the home improvement giant, is set to acquire Artisan Design Group for $1.33 billion. This strategic move aims to bolster Lowe's pro business by expanding its product offerings and services in interior finishes for home builders and property managers. The acquisition is expected to enhance Lowe's competitive edge in the home improvement sector.
Onsemi Abandons $6.9B Allegro MicroSystems Takeover, Pivots to Buybacks
Onsemi has withdrawn its $6.9 billion bid to acquire Allegro MicroSystems following rejection. The move caused Onsemi's shares to rise 4%. The company will now shift focus to share buybacks instead.
Fixed Income And Interest Rates Events
Treasury Secretary Bessent Affirms Dollar's Strength, Addresses U.S.-China Economic Relations
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent reassured markets about the stability of U.S. assets and the dollar's status as a global reserve currency. He dismissed concerns about dumping of U.S. Treasuries, stating there's no evidence of sovereign sales. Bessent described recent market fluctuations as "occasional shocks" in the trading community. Regarding U.S.-China relations, he noted that President Trump and President Xi have a good relationship, but emphasized that tariffs on China are significant and not to be taken lightly. While acknowledging that decoupling from China isn't necessary, Bessent didn't rule out the possibility, indicating a nuanced approach to U.S.-China economic ties.
Bond Market Shifts: Yields Tumble, ETF Interest Surges, and Fed Hints at Potential Rate Cuts
The bond market is experiencing significant shifts, with 30-year mortgage spreads surprisingly narrowing despite increased volatility. Treasury yields have tumbled, and investors are showing renewed interest in bond ETFs, particularly those focused on Canadian equities and actively managed funds. The U.S. 10-year yield has dropped to 4.36%, while stocks and bonds are rebounding after a tumultuous week. JPMorgan's cash-hoarding strategy is evolving as the credit market shows signs of stress. Federal Reserve official Christopher Waller suggests interest rate cuts may be necessary if Trump-era tariffs remain in place. These developments are occurring against a backdrop of a weakening dollar and ongoing market uncertainty, as yield spreads indicate persistent risks.
US Treasury Secretary Backs Argentina's Reforms, Aims to Counter Chinese Influence in Latin America
US Treasury Secretary Bessent visited Argentina to show support for President Milei's economic reforms. The Trump Administration is focusing on Latin America, aiming to prevent China's influence as seen in Africa. Bessent affirmed US support for Milei's bold reforms but stated the US is not considering a foreign exchange swap. The visit highlights the administration's commitment to addressing challenges in the region.
Treasury to Begin Search for New Fed Chair This Fall
Treasury Secretary Bessent announces plans to interview candidates for Fed Chair Powell's successor this fall. The search for the next Federal Reserve leader is set to begin, signaling a potential change in US monetary policy leadership.
Crypto Events
MicroStrategy Snaps Up 3,459 Bitcoin for $285.8 Million, Reinforcing Bullish Crypto Strategy
MicroStrategy, led by Michael Saylor, has made another significant Bitcoin purchase. The company acquired 3,459 BTC between April 7 and April 13, spending $285.8 million at an average price of $82,618 per coin. This move demonstrates Saylor's continued commitment to Bitcoin accumulation and bullish stance on cryptocurrency.
SEC Postpones Grayscale Ethereum ETF Staking Decision as Canada Prepares to Launch Solana ETFs
The SEC has delayed its decision on Grayscale's proposal to allow staking for its spot Ethereum ETF, adding uncertainty to the regulatory landscape. Meanwhile, Canada is set to launch Solana ETFs this week, marking a significant step for Solana in traditional markets. These developments highlight the evolving crypto ETF space and regulatory approaches across different jurisdictions.
Kraken Enters Stock Market with Commission-Free Trading Offer
Kraken, a cryptocurrency exchange, is expanding into traditional markets by launching commission-free trading for over 11,000 U.S.-listed stocks and ETFs. The rollout is initially available in select states.
Homeland Security Launches Probe into Crypto Bank Anchorage, Sparking Industry Concerns
The U.S. Department of Homeland Security has initiated an investigation into Anchorage Digital Bank, a Wall Street-backed cryptocurrency company. The probe, conducted by a group focused on combating financial crimes, raises questions about the future of crypto banking in the U.S. and potential compliance issues within the industry.
Environment Events
Egypt Mediates Potential Gaza Ceasefire: Israeli Proposal Awaits Hamas Response
Egypt has received an Israeli proposal for a ceasefire in Gaza and negotiations for a permanent truce. The proposal has been delivered to Hamas, and Egypt is now awaiting their response, according to Al Qahera News TV.
Moderate Earthquake Shakes San Diego County, California; No Major Damage Reported
A 5.1 magnitude earthquake struck San Diego County, California, with a depth of 13.4 km. The U.S. Geological Survey reported the event, initially causing confusion about its exact magnitude. No major damage or casualties have been reported so far.
Healthcare Events
Pfizer Abandons Promising Weight-Loss Pill Amid Safety Concerns
Pfizer halts development of its weight-loss pill danuglipron due to liver injury concerns in clinical trials, marking a significant setback in the competitive obesity drug market.
Biotech Firms Make Strides: FDA Meetings, Clinical Trials, and Market Challenges
IDEAYA Biosciences reports a successful FDA meeting for darovasertib's Phase 3 trial. Third Harmonic announces liquidation plans, while Verve Therapeutics anticipates key milestones in 2025. Summit Therapeutics faces competition in NSCLC treatment. Ananda expands its U.S. presence as its lead drug enters Phase 1 clinical trials.
Currencies Events
Argentine Farmers Prioritize Harvest Amid Currency Shift, Delaying Sales Surge
Argentina's grain industry welcomes eased foreign-exchange controls, but harvest delays limit immediate sales impact. Farmers prioritize completing harvest over rushing to sell, despite currency depreciation. Experts anticipate gradual market response as harvest progresses.
Dollar Slumps as Pound, Euro, and Aussie Rally Amid Shifting Economic Outlook
The US dollar weakens against major currencies, with GBP/USD, EUR/USD, and AUD/USD showing upward momentum. Analysts predict further gains for these pairs, citing overvaluation of the dollar and deteriorating US growth performance.
Legal Events
SEC Postpones Grayscale Ethereum ETF Staking Decision as Canada Prepares to Launch Solana ETFs
The SEC has delayed its decision on Grayscale's proposal to allow staking for its spot Ethereum ETF, adding uncertainty to the regulatory landscape. Meanwhile, Canada is set to launch Solana ETFs this week, marking a significant step for Solana in traditional markets. These developments highlight the evolving crypto ETF space and regulatory approaches across different jurisdictions.
Meta's Fate Hangs in Balance as Crucial Antitrust Trial Commences
Meta's antitrust trial begins, with the FTC seeking a potential breakup of the company. The case, described as "existential" for Meta, challenges its acquisitions of Instagram and WhatsApp, which Meta claims were previously approved by the FTC.
Earnings Events
Goldman Sachs Smashes Q1 Estimates with Record Equities Trading Revenue, Approves $40 Billion Share Buyback
Goldman Sachs has delivered an impressive first-quarter performance, surpassing analyst expectations with robust earnings and revenue figures. The financial giant reported earnings per share of $14.12, beating estimates of $12.35, and revenue of $15.06 billion, exceeding forecasts of $14.81 billion. The standout performer was the equities trading division, which posted record revenue of $4.19 billion, contributing significantly to the overall results. Global Banking & Markets revenue increased by 10% year-over-year to $10.71 billion. The company's success was attributed to market volatility, which boosted both equities and fixed income trading. Goldman Sachs also approved a substantial share buyback program of up to $40 billion. However, the firm noted that it is entering the second quarter with a "markedly different" operating environment, signaling potential challenges ahead.
Luxury Giant LVMH Faces Unexpected Q1 Sales Decline, Signaling Industry Slowdown
LVMH, the world's largest luxury group, reported a 3% drop in Q1 sales, missing expectations and confirming a sector slowdown. U.S. sales declined 3%, contributing to the overall slump in core business performance.
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