Monday, May 26, 2025

A Time Traveler’s Guide to Save Sears, Phase 5

Sears Tech Surge Plan: Phase 5 (2025–2030)

Mission: Elevate Sears to a $320.35B retail-tech-manufacturing powerhouse by 2030, achieving $250B U.S. and $20B Canadian online sales (~14% U.S., ~14% Canada e-commerce share), $25B logistics (~5% U.S. market), $10B auto services (~20% market), and 15–50% market shares in appliances, tools, batteries, tires, electronics, gaming, bedding, grills, paints, optical, and lawn/garden. Acquire Saks Fifth Avenue and Saks OFF 5TH, expand Saks OFF 5TH and Sears stores in the Texas Triangle, lay groundwork for Sears.com/logistics in Asia-Pacific (Tokyo, Osaka, Singapore, Korea), scale DieHard for hybrid/EV battery production, partner with Serta for Harmony House bedding, expand Coldspot to 15% appliance share, and grow Sears Crypto Fund with SearsCoin cryptocurrency mined at retail locations to capitalize on financial trends, leveraging “Designed in USA/Mexico” and consumer goodwill to rival Amazon and surpass Walmart’s e-commerce share, setting up Phase 6’s $400–410B revenue.

Strategic Context

  • Sears’ Position (2025, from Phase 4):
    • Revenue: $250.15B
    • Sears.com: $215B ($200B U.S.: parts: $15B, Kenmore: $10B, Craftsman: $8B, DieHard: $6B, Silvertone: $6B, Atari Japan: $5B, Serta: $3B, WeatherBeater: $3B, RoadHandler: $3B, Coldspot: $2B, Harmony House: $2B, Char-Broil: $1.5B, social: $20B, vendors: $30B, B2B: $1B, others: $75B [clothing: $25B, furnishings: $25B, kitchenware: $25B]; $15B Canada: parts: $1.5B, vendors: $5B, social: $2B, others: $6.5B)
    • Stores: $12B ($11B U.S., $1B Canada)
    • Auto Centers: $8B ($7.5B U.S., $500M Canada)
    • Allstate: $500M
    • Logistics: $20B ($19B U.S., $1B Canada)
    • HomeForce/PartsDirect: $7B ($6.5B U.S., $500M Canada)
    • Optical: $1B ($700M U.S., $300M Canada)
    • Sears Pay/Card: $600M ($100M crypto fees)
    • Community Fund: $100M
    • Ventures: $500M
    • Cub Cadet: $500M
    • SWF: $150M
    • Sears Crypto Fund: $50M
    • Licensing/Other: $1B
    • EBITDA: $15.009B (6% margin)
    • Valuation: $225.135B (15x EBITDA)
    • Assets: 1,200 U.S./150 Canadian stores, 1,500 Auto Centers, 22 logistics hubs (19 U.S., 3 Canada), 2,000 micro-DCs (1,900 U.S., 100 Canada), 40,000 vehicles (10,000 EVs), 200,000 employees (90,000 retail, 40,000 logistics, 30,000 HomeForce, 15,000 tech incl. 500 crypto specialists, 8,000 factories, 1,500 HQ, 7,000 Auto Centers, 3,500 Optical, 2,500 Atari Japan, 7,500 Canada, 300 Community Fund, 200 Ventures), $2.812B surplus (incl. $590M crypto gains), $0 debt, $1B credit line, $1.5B SWF (incl. $690M Crypto Fund with 10,000 BTC)
    • Brands: Kenmore (45% appliances), Craftsman (30% tools), DieHard (30% batteries), WeatherBeater (15% paint), RoadHandler (20% tires), Coldspot (12% appliances), Harmony House (12% bedding), Silvertone (15% electronics), Char-Broil (15% grills), Atari Japan (15% gaming), Serta (15% bedding), Western Forge (included in Craftsman), Allstate (20% owned)
    • Tech: Sears.com (300M users, 6M SKUs, AI search, chatbots, AR/VR), Sears Pay/Card (60M users, 80% transactions, blockchain, Bitcoin payments), Sears Prime ($50/year, 60M subscribers), PartsDirect (blockchain-enabled), iFixit, IoT (appliances, tools, diagnostics), 5G mobile apps, crypto wallet
    • Manufacturing: Dallas factories (Coldspot: 1989, 500,000 units; DieHard: 1993, 3.5M batteries; Craftsman: 2000, 1.5M power tools; 70% U.S.-sourced), Western Forge Colorado (2009, 800,000 hand tools/year, 70% U.S.-sourced), Western Forge Texas (2015, 5M hand tools/year, 70% U.S.-sourced), Osaka factory (Atari Mini, 8M units/year), Mexico factory (Harmony House, 2025, 1M bedding units/year, 50% Mexico-sourced)
    • Partnerships: Whirlpool, Stanley Black & Decker, Cooper Tire, Serta, Sony, Nike, Levi’s, Duracell, Cub Cadet, Carhartt, Lenovo, John Deere, Under Armour, Apple, Allstate, Google, FedEx, Taito/Namco, Capcom, Evercade, Sherwin-Williams, Danaher, Ingram, Coinbase (crypto payments)
  • Market (2030):
    • Retail: U.S. e-commerce: $1.8T. Sears.com targets $250B (~14% share), reducing Amazon’s from 28% ($504B) to 25% ($450B), Walmart’s from 4% ($72B) to 3% ($54B). Canada e-commerce: $140B, Sears Canada targets $20B (~14% share).
    • Logistics: $500B U.S. market. Sears targets $25B (~5%), cutting Amazon’s from 20% ($100B) to 18% ($90B). Canada: $50B, Sears Canada ($2B, 4%).
    • Auto Services: $50B U.S. market. Sears Auto Centers ($9B) and Allstate ($1B) target ~20%, cutting AutoZone/Pep Boys by ~4%. Canada: $6B, Sears Canada ($1B, 16.7%).
    • Optical: $55B U.S. market. Sears Optical ($1.2B, 2.2%) cuts LensCrafters from 12% to 10%. Canada: $6B, Sears Canada ($400M, 6.7%).
    • Appliances/Tools/Batteries/Tires/Paints/Electronics/Gaming/Bedding/Grills/Lawn-Garden: Appliances ($70B), tools ($45B), batteries ($20B), tires ($30B), paints ($55B), electronics ($140B), gaming ($70B), bedding ($35B), grills ($18B), lawn/garden ($12B). Sears targets 15–50% shares.
    • Cryptocurrency: $2.5T global market. Sears Crypto Fund, payments, and SearsCoin target $450M (~0.02% share).
    • Skilled Trades: 1.5M unfilled jobs.
    • Gaming: $70B market, cloud and retro gaming surge (Xbox Game Pass: 60M subscribers).
    • Search/Social: Google (3B users), Instagram/TikTok (2B each).
    • Logistics Trends: Autonomous vans, drones, blockchain scale.
  • Consumer Trends: Demand for sustainable, IoT-enabled, modular products grows (10% CAGR in Florida/Texas/Canada). Mobile shopping (70% e-commerce), social commerce (30% sales), hybrid vehicles (20% vs. 12% EVs), crypto payments (3% transactions, incl. SearsCoin).
  • Technology: AI (generative chatbots, predictive logistics), IoT (smart homes, EV diagnostics), AR/VR (immersive retail), blockchain (supply chain, Sears Pay crypto, SearsCoin), 6G (mobile commerce).
  • Financial: $2.812B surplus (incl. $590M crypto gains), $0 debt, $1B credit line, $1.5B SWF (incl. $690M Crypto Fund). Retail-tech valuations soar (Amazon $2.5T, Shopify $250B). Bitcoin: ~$69,000 (2025), ~$100,000 (2030).
  • Key Events: Urban growth (2025–2030), hybrid/EV surge (20% market), TikTok Shop dominance (2027), 6G rollout (2028), Bitcoin halving (2028).

Financial Restructuring

  • Debt Management: Maintain $0 debt, draw $500M from $1.5B credit line (2026, $20M fee) for Saks/OFF 5TH ($300M), logistics ($100M), Sears Crypto Fund ($50M), SearsCoin ($50M), leaving $1B.
  • Equity Raise: Raise $5B (2026, $75M fee) for Sears.com ($2B), logistics ($1B), brands ($1B), acquisitions ($400M), tech ($350M), Sears Crypto Fund ($100M), SearsCoin ($50M).
  • SWF, Sears Crypto Fund, and SearsCoin: Grow SWF from $1.5B to $2B (2030, $150M budget), generating $200M revenue (6% return). Scale Sears Crypto Fund from $690M (10,000 BTC) to $1.2B (12,500 BTC at $100,000, plus $200M blockchain investments), generating $150M revenue. Launch SearsCoin (2026, $100M), mining 1M coins/year at Sears stores, generating $100M revenue (fees, loyalty sales).
  • Asset Optimization: Retain 1,200 U.S./150 Canadian stores, acquire 100 Saks/OFF 5TH stores (50 U.S., 50 Canada), add 20 Saks OFF 5TH and 10 Sears stores in Texas Triangle.
  • Workforce Scaling: Grow to 241,500 employees (from 200,000):
    • Retail: 101,000 (+11,000, incl. 1,000 Texas Triangle stores)
    • Logistics: 45,500 (+5,500, incl. 500 APAC prep)
    • HomeForce: 35,000 (+5,000)
    • Tech: 21,000 (+6,000, incl. 1,000 crypto/blockchain/SearsCoin specialists)
    • Factories: 10,000 (+2,000)
    • HQ: 2,000 (+500)
    • Auto Centers: 8,000 (+1,000)
    • Optical: 4,000 (+500)
    • Atari Japan: 3,000 (+500)
    • Canada: 10,000 (+2,500)
    • Saks/OFF 5TH: 2,000 (+2,000)
    • Community Fund: 500 (+200)
    • Ventures: 500 (+300)
    • Retrain 25,000 via Sears Academy ($75M, incl. blockchain/SearsCoin); severance for 2,000 ($20M).
  • Funding: $10.112B
    • $2.812B surplus (2025, incl. $590M crypto gains)
    • $2B cash flow (2025–2030, from $15.009B EBITDA at ~13% retention)
    • $5B equity (2026)
    • $500M credit draw
    • $500M SWF contribution
    • $300M crypto asset gains (2,500 BTC at $100,000 - $69,000 = $77.5M; 10,000 BTC at $100,000 - $69,000 = $310M, less $87.5M realized for operations)
  • Budget: $7.65B
    • Sears.com: $2B
    • Logistics: $1.2B
    • HomeForce/PartsDirect: $400M
    • Auto Centers/Allstate: $500M
    • Atari Japan: $400M
    • Optical: $150M
    • Sears Pay/Card: $450M (incl. $50M crypto expansion)
    • Sears Academy: $200M
    • Acquisitions: $500M
    • Ventures: $200M
    • Stores: $350M (incl. $50M Texas Triangle Sears stores)
    • Sustainability: $300M
    • Canada: $300M
    • Saks/OFF 5TH: $400M (incl. $100M Texas Triangle stores)
    • Cub Cadet: $150M
    • Brands: $800M
    • SWF: $150M
    • Sears Crypto Fund: $150M
    • SearsCoin: $100M
    • APAC Expansion Prep: $150M
    • Balance Sheet: $195M (credit/equity fees: $95M, PR/legal: $5M, severance: $20M, retraining: $75M)
  • Surplus: $2.462B for Phase 6 ($10.112B - $7.65B)
  • Revenue (2030): $320.35B
    • Sears.com: $270B ($250B U.S.: parts: $20B, Kenmore: $12B, Craftsman: $10B, DieHard: $8B, Silvertone: $8B, Atari Japan: $7B, Serta: $4B, WeatherBeater: $4B, RoadHandler: $4B, Coldspot: $3B, Harmony House: $3B, Char-Broil: $2B, Saks/OFF 5TH: $5B, social: $25B, vendors: $35B, B2B: $1.5B, others: $95B [clothing: $30B, furnishings: $30B, kitchenware: $35B]; $20B Canada: parts: $2B, vendors: $7B, social: $3B, others: $8B)
    • Stores: $15.1B ($13B U.S., $2B Canada, $100M Texas Triangle)
    • Auto Centers: $9B ($8B U.S., $1B Canada)
    • Allstate: $1B
    • Logistics: $25B ($23B U.S., $2B Canada)
    • HomeForce/PartsDirect: $9B ($8B U.S., $1B Canada)
    • Optical: $1.2B ($800M U.S., $400M Canada)
    • Sears Pay/Card: $1.1B ($100M crypto fees)
    • Community Fund: $200M
    • Ventures: $1B
    • Saks/OFF 5TH: $5B ($4B U.S., $1B Canada)
    • Cub Cadet: $700M
    • SWF: $200M
    • Sears Crypto Fund: $150M
    • SearsCoin: $100M
    • Licensing/Other: $1.7B
  • EBITDA: $19.221B (6% margin)
    • Sears.com: $10.8B (4%)
    • Stores: $755M (5%)
    • Auto Centers/Allstate: $1B (10%)
    • Logistics: $1.25B (5%)
    • HomeForce/PartsDirect: $900M (10%)
    • Optical: $120M (10%)
    • Sears Pay/Card: $110M (10%)
    • Community Fund: $20M (10%)
    • Ventures: $100M (10%)
    • Saks/OFF 5TH: $500M (10%)
    • Cub Cadet: $70M (10%)
    • SWF: $20M (10%)
    • Sears Crypto Fund: $15M (10%)
    • SearsCoin: $10M (10%)
    • Brands: $2.5B (5%)
    • Licensing/Other: $1.041B (10%)
  • Valuation: $288.315B (15x EBITDA)
  • Debt: $0
  • Comparison: Sears’ $5B equity, $2.462B surplus (incl. crypto gains), and $2B SWF (incl. $1.2B Crypto Fund, $100M SearsCoin) compete with Amazon’s $30B+ rounds, surpassing Walmart’s $54B e-commerce.
  • Implications: $2.462B surplus, $1B credit line, and $2B SWF (incl. crypto) support Phase 6’s $400–410B revenue, with Texas, APAC, and SearsCoin poised for growth.

Strategic Pillars

Sears.com E-Commerce Platform

  • Objective: Scale Sears.com to $270B by 2030 (8M SKUs, 350M users), capturing ~14% U.S., ~14% Canada e-commerce share, with groundwork for APAC and SearsCoin integration.
  • Function: Online retail platform offering Sears-controlled first-party products, third-party products, Saks/OFF 5TH luxury goods, and crypto payment options (incl. SearsCoin), with same-day/2-day delivery, AI-driven personalization, AR/VR immersive retail, and Sears Prime loyalty.
  • Features:
    • SKUs: 8M (from 6M)
    • First-party (4.8M): Kenmore, Craftsman, DieHard, WeatherBeater, RoadHandler, Coldspot, Harmony House, Silvertone, Char-Broil, Atari Japan, Saks/OFF 5TH apparel/home, clothing, furnishings, kitchenware, electronics, computers, outdoor ($600M).
    • Third-party (3.2M): Nike, Levi’s, Duracell, Sony, Cub Cadet, Carhartt, Lenovo, John Deere, Under Armour, Samsung, Apple, Dell ($500M).
    • 60% domestic, 30% EU/Japan/Korea/Taiwan, 10% Chinese, ISO 9001-vetted.
    • Saks/OFF 5TH SKUs: 50,000 luxury apparel/home ($50M).
    • Parts Catalog: $22B (30% auto parts share)
    • Auto ($13B): DieHard batteries ($4B), RoadHandler tires ($3B), third-party tires (Goodyear, Michelin, Bridgestone, $3B), Bosch filters ($2B), Edelbrock camshafts ($1B), spark plugs ($500M), crate motors ($300M).
    • General ($7B): Kenmore compressors ($2B), Craftsman blades ($1.5B), Silvertone components ($1B), Atari hardware ($700M).
    • Niche ($2B): Marine gaskets ($600M), HVAC filters ($600M), small engines ($400M).
    • B2B Sales: 50,000 clients (25,000 garages, 15,000 dealerships, 10,000 contractors, $150M), $1.5B revenue.
    • Search: AI generative chatbots, voice search, predictive analytics (2027, $400M).
    • Mobile Apps: iPhone/Android for browsing, Sears Pay (incl. crypto wallet with SearsCoin), Atari Streaming, AR/VR immersive try-ons, 6G-enabled (2028, $400M).
    • Social Commerce: Instagram/TikTok shops for apparel, electronics, Atari Japan, Saks/OFF 5TH (2027, $150M), $25B revenue, with crypto/SearsCoin payments.
    • Marketplace: eBay-like platform with 600,000 sellers ($200M).
    • Bookstore: 1M titles via Ingram ($150M).
    • Fulfillment: 25 hubs (22 U.S., 3 Canada), 2,500 micro-DCs (2,400 U.S., 100 Canada), 50,000 vehicles (15,000 EVs, $400M).
    • Sears Prime: $60/year, free shipping, extended warranties, HomeForce bookings, Allstate 15% discounts, Atari Streaming, 20% off core brands, 5% BTC/ETH/SearsCoin cashback ($400M), 70M subscribers.
    • PriceLock: Instant price-match ($100M).
    • Crypto Payments: Expand Bitcoin/Ethereum/USDC payments (2027, $50M). 3% of transactions (~$8.1B) in crypto, holding 1,000 BTC/year (5,000 BTC by 2030 at $100,000 = $500M), generating $100M fees.
    • SearsCoin: Launch 2026 ($100M), mine 1M coins/year at Sears/Saks stores ($100/spend = 1 coin), generating $100M (fees, loyalty sales). Programmable via smart contracts, redeemable on Sears.com, tradable on exchanges.
    • APAC Prep: Market research, partnerships in Tokyo, Osaka, Singapore, Korea ($100M), develop 1M SKUs ($50M) for 2031 launch, incl. SearsCoin rewards.
  • Adoption: 320M users (2028), 350M (2030, vs. Amazon’s 300M).
  • Revenue: $270B (see Financial Restructuring).
  • Marketing: “Sears.com: Your World, Innovated” via Instagram, TikTok, YouTube, HGTV, Popular Mechanics, Indy 500, incl. SearsCoin promotion ($400M).
    • Promotion Partners: Google ($200M), Instagram/TikTok ($100M), YouTube ($50M), HGTV ($30M), Popular Mechanics ($30M), Indy 500 ($20M).
  • Comparison: Sears.com’s $270B captures ~14% U.S. e-commerce share, cutting Amazon’s to 25%.
  • Budget: $2B (SKUs: $600M, search: $400M, apps: $400M, social: $150M, marketplace: $200M, bookstore: $150M, fulfillment: $400M, marketing: $400M).
  • Implications: 8M SKUs, crypto/SearsCoin, APAC prep set Phase 6’s 10M SKUs, 400M users, 80M Prime subscribers.

Sears Logistics

  • Objective: Invest $1.2B for 25 hubs (22 U.S., 3 Canada), 2,500 micro-DCs (2,400 U.S., 100 Canada), 50,000 vehicles (15,000 EVs) by 2030, generating $25B, with APAC groundwork.
  • Function: Support Sears.com’s same-day/2-day delivery in 100 cities, PartsDirect, Saks/OFF 5TH, third-party logistics, with blockchain for crypto/SearsCoin tracking, and prep for APAC hubs.
  • Features:
    • Hubs: Add 3 U.S. hubs (2026–2030: Austin, Nashville, San Diego, $300M), handling 150M packages/year (20M parts).
    • Micro-DCs: 2,500 (2,400 U.S., 100 Canada, $300M).
    • Fleet: 50,000 vehicles (35,000 U.S. vans: $500M, 15,000 U.S./Canada EVs: $400M, 3,000 Canada vans: $100M).
    • IoT Tracking: Autonomous vans, drones, blockchain for crypto/SearsCoin and supply chain (2027, $150M).
    • FedEx Partnership: Last-mile efficiency ($50M).
    • Sears Canada: 3 hubs, 100 micro-DCs ($50M).
    • APAC Prep: Feasibility studies for Tokyo, Osaka, Singapore, Korea hubs ($50M).
  • Revenue: $25B ($23B U.S.: $15B Sears.com, $5B PartsDirect, $3B third-party; $2B Canada).
  • Budget: $1.2B (hubs: $300M, micro-DCs: $300M, vehicles: $1B, tech: $150M, FedEx: $50M, Canada: $50M).
  • Comparison: Captures ~5% of $500B U.S. market, cutting Amazon’s from 18% to 16%.
  • Implications: Sets Phase 6’s 30 hubs, $30B revenue, with APAC readiness.

HomeForce and PartsDirect

  • Objective: Scale HomeForce to 35,000 technicians ($6B) and PartsDirect to $3B by 2030, generating $9B.
  • Function: HomeForce repairs Sears and third-party products, PartsDirect supplies parts with blockchain/SearsCoin tracking, both supporting crypto transactions.
  • HomeForce Features:
    • 35,000 technicians (32,000 U.S., 3,000 Canada), trained via Sears Academy ($150M), service Sears brands and third-party products (Sony, Lenovo, Apple, Saks/OFF 5TH) in 250 markets, handling 20M jobs/year ($200/hour, $100M).
    • Repairs: 12M (appliances, tools, computers, 2M auto parts installations, $2.4B).
    • Setups: 8M (TVs, stereos, computers, networking, $1.6B).
    • Prime priority bookings: 70% ($3B).
    • Canada: 3,000 technicians, 1.5M jobs/year ($300M).
    • PartsDirect Features:
    • Stocks parts for Kenmore ($80 compressors), Craftsman ($30 blades), DieHard ($50 connectors), Coldspot ($60 AC coils), Silvertone ($80 components), auto parts ($80 spark plugs, $300 camshafts, $1,500 crate motors, $150M), 5-year first-party support.
    • IoT/Blockchain: Tracks parts availability, supports crypto/SearsCoin payments ($100M).
  • Revenue: $9B ($8B U.S.: $6B HomeForce, $2B PartsDirect; $1B Canada: $300M HomeForce, $700M PartsDirect).
  • Budget: $400M (HomeForce: $150M, PartsDirect: $150M, IoT: $100M, training: $150M).
  • Comparison: Captures 22% repair market, cutting Home Depot’s to 6%.
  • Implications: Sets Phase 6’s $12B revenue.

Supporting Initiatives

Core and Neglected Brands

  • Kenmore (Appliances, $12B, 50% market):
    • Products: IoT washers, refrigerators, EV-compatible ($150M, Dallas R&D).
    • Production: Whirlpool ($80M, 3M units/year, 70% U.S.-sourced), 5-year parts support.
  • Craftsman (Tools, $10B, 35% market):
    • Products: IoT power/hand tools ($150M).
    • Production: Dallas ($80M, 2M power tools/year), Western Forge Colorado ($50M, 1M hand tools/year), Texas ($80M, 6M hand tools/year), Stanley Black & Decker ($50M), Danaher ($30M), 5-year parts support.
  • DieHard (Batteries, $8B, 35% market):
    • Products: Automotive/marine batteries, hybrid/EV-compatible ($150M, Dallas factory).
    • Production: Dallas ($80M, 4M batteries/year, 70% U.S.-sourced), 5-year parts support.
  • WeatherBeater (Paints, $4B, 20% market):
    • Products: Zero-VOC paints ($80M).
    • Production: Sherwin-Williams ($30M).
  • RoadHandler (Tires, $4B, 25% market):
    • Products: Eco-tires, hybrid/EV-compatible ($80M).
    • Production: Cooper Tire ($30M).
  • Coldspot (Appliances, $3B, 15% market):
    • Products: IoT refrigerators, AC for Florida/Texas/Canada ($80M, Dallas factory).
    • Production: Whirlpool ($30M, 600,000 units/year, 65% U.S.-sourced), 5-year parts support.
  • Harmony House (Bedding/Decor, $3B, 15% market):
    • Products: Sustainable bedding, Serta partnership ($50M, Mexico factory).
    • Production: Serta ($30M, 1.5M units/year, 50% Mexico-sourced).
  • Silvertone (Electronics, $8B, 20% market):
    • Products: TVs, stereos, computers, IoT-enabled ($100M).
    • Production: Sony ($50M).
  • Char-Broil (Grills, $2B, 20% market):
    • Products: Smart grills ($50M).
    • Production: Proprietary ($30M).
  • Serta (Bedding, $4B, 20% market, 30% owned):
    • Products: Mattresses ($80M).
    • Production: Serta ($50M).
  • Atari Japan (Gaming, $7B, 20% market, 100% owned):
    • Products: Atari Mini, streaming, mods ($150M, Osaka factory).
    • Production: Osaka ($80M, 10M units/year), 5-year parts support.
  • Western Forge (Tools, $3B, included in Craftsman, 100% owned):
    • Products: Hand tools ($80M).
    • Production: Colorado ($1B, 1M hand tools/year), Texas ($2B, 6M hand tools/year).
  • Allstate (Roadside Assistance, $1B, 20% owned):
    • Products: Towing, tire changes, battery jumps, EV support ($50M).
    • Production: Allstate network ($30M).
  • Saks/OFF 5TH (Apparel/Home, $5B, 5% market, 100% owned):
    • Products: Luxury apparel/home ($100M).
    • Production: In-house ($50M).
  • Cub Cadet (Lawn/Garden, $700M, 10% market):
    • Products: Smart mowers ($30M).
    • Production: Stanley Black & Decker ($20M, 150,000 units/year), 5-year parts support.
  • Revenue: $45B (included in Sears.com/stores).
  • Budget: $800M (Kenmore: $150M, Craftsman: $150M, DieHard: $100M, WeatherBeater: $50M, RoadHandler: $50M, Coldspot: $50M, Harmony House: $50M, Silvertone: $50M, Char-Broil: $30M, Serta: $50M, Atari Japan: $100M, Western Forge: $50M, Allstate: $30M, Saks/OFF 5TH: $100M, Cub Cadet: $30M).
  • Comparison: Kenmore’s 50% and Craftsman’s 35% cut Home Depot’s share to 4%, Walmart’s to 1%.
  • Implications: Scales to Phase 6’s $55B.

Auto Centers and Allstate Roadside Assistance

  • Objective: Scale Auto Centers to 1,600 centers ($9B) and Allstate to $1B, generating $10B.
  • Auto Centers Features:
    • Centers: 1,600 (1,200 showrooms, 400 standalone).
    • Parts: $5B ($3B in-store, $2B Sears.com: DieHard batteries: $2B, RoadHandler tires: $1.8B, filters/pads/oil: $1.2B, performance parts: $500M).
    • Services: 20M jobs/year ($4B U.S., $1B Canada).
    • IoT Diagnostics: Battery/tire health, EV support ($100M).
    • Staffing: 8,000 technicians ($100M).
    • Marketing: Indy 500, Horsepower TV ($100M).
  • Allstate Features:
    • 4M services/year ($1B): towing ($300M), tire changes ($200M), battery jumps ($200M), other ($300M).
  • Revenue: $10B ($9B Auto Centers: $8B U.S., $1B Canada; $1B Allstate).
  • Budget: $500M (centers: $200M, IoT: $100M, training: $100M, marketing: $100M, Allstate: $100M).
  • Comparison: Captures 20% auto services share, cutting AutoZone’s to 5%.
  • Implications: Scales to Phase 6’s $12B.

Atari Japan

  • Objective: Scale Atari Japan to $7B (20% gaming share), leveraging modding and cloud gaming.
  • Features:
    • Osaka Factory: 10M Atari Mini units/year ($1B, $150M).
    • Atari Mini: App store with 1,500 games, PvP multiplayer, 64-bit emulation, dev kits ($150M, 10M units).
    • Atari Streaming: 3M subscribers, $10/month ($2.88B, $150M).
    • Modding: 300 mods/year, mod kits, open APIs ($3B, $100M).
    • Game Development: New 64-bit games from Japanese, Korean, North American, European developers (e.g., Ubisoft, CD Projekt Red, $100M).
    • Partnerships: Taito/Namco ($50M), Capcom ($50M), Evercade ($50M).
  • Revenue: $7B (Mini: $1B, Streaming: $2.88B, mods/games: $3.12B).
  • Marketing: “Atari: Retro Meets Future” via YouTube, Twitch, TikTok ($100M).
    • Promotion Partners: YouTube ($40M), Twitch ($30M), TikTok ($30M).
  • Budget: $400M (factory: $150M, Mini: $150M, Streaming: $150M, mods: $100M, partners: $150M, marketing: $100M).
  • Comparison: Captures 20% of $70B gaming market, cutting Nintendo’s to 10%.
  • Implications: Scales to Phase 6’s $10B.

Sears Optical

  • Objective: Scale to 800 U.S., 100 Canada showrooms ($150M), generating $1.2B.
  • Features:
    • Frames/services ($80M).
    • AR/VR try-ons, telehealth ($50M).
    • Allstate: Vision insurance ($30M).
  • Revenue: $1.2B ($800M U.S., $400M Canada, 2.2% U.S. optical market).
  • Budget: $150M (expansion: $80M, AR/telehealth: $50M, Allstate: $30M).
  • Comparison: Cuts LensCrafters’ share to 10%.
  • Implications: Scales to Phase 6’s $1.5B.

Showrooms and Micro-DCs

  • Objective: Maintain 1,200 U.S., 150 Canada stores, add 20 Saks OFF 5TH and 10 Sears stores in Texas Triangle, scale to 2,500 micro-DCs ($350M), generating $15.1B.
  • Features:
    • Showrooms: AR/VR demos, kiosks, DIY workshops, brand displays, SearsCoin mining ($150M).
    • Micro-DCs: 2,500 (2,400 U.S., 100 Canada, $150M).
    • Texas Triangle Stores: 20 Saks OFF 5TH (5 Dallas, 5 Houston, 5 Austin, 5 San Antonio, $80M), 10 Sears full-line (3 Dallas, 3 Houston, 2 Austin, 2 San Antonio, $20M), all SearsCoin mining hubs.
  • Revenue: $15.1B ($13B U.S., $2B Canada, $100M Texas Triangle).
  • Budget: $350M (showrooms: $150M, micro-DCs: $150M, Texas Saks: $80M, Texas Sears: $20M).
  • Comparison: Cuts Walmart’s retail share to 1%.
  • Implications: Scales to Phase 6’s $20B, Texas presence grows.

Sears Pay/Card and Rewards Ecosystem

  • Objective: Scale Sears Prime to 70M subscribers, Sears Pay/Card to 70M users ($450M, incl. crypto/SearsCoin), generating $1.1B.
  • Features:
    • Sears Prime: $60/year, free shipping, warranties, HomeForce bookings, Atari Streaming, 20% off core brands, 5% BTC/ETH/SearsCoin cashback ($300M).
    • Sears Pay: Mobile apps, biometrics, blockchain, Bitcoin/Ethereum/USDC/SearsCoin payments (2027, $200M, Coinbase partnership).
    • Sears Card: 5% cashback, accepts crypto ($200M).
    • Crypto Processing: 3% of Sears.com transactions (~$8.1B) in crypto, holding 1,000 BTC/year (5,000 BTC by 2030 at $100,000 = $500M), generating $100M fees.
    • SearsCoin: Mine 1M coins/year at Sears/Saks stores ($100/spend = 1 coin), redeemable on Sears.com, tradable, generating $100M (fees, loyalty sales).
  • Revenue: $1.1B ($600M Prime, $400M Pay/Card, $100M crypto/SearsCoin fees).
  • Budget: $450M (Prime: $300M, Pay/Card: $200M, crypto/SearsCoin: $50M).
  • Comparison: 70M users, 3% crypto transactions cut PayPal’s $2T volume by 4%.
  • Implications: Scales to Phase 6’s $1.5B, crypto/SearsCoin adoption grows.

Sustainability and Culture

  • Objective: Expand “Designed in USA/Mexico,” Energy Star, Community Fund for $4B uplift.
  • Features:
    • Designed in USA/Mexico: Dallas/Mexico factories ($150M).
    • Energy Star: 100% of brands ($100M).
    • Community Fund: 2,500 communities ($100M).
  • Revenue Uplift: $4B ($1.5B USA/Mexico, $1.5B Energy Star, $1B Fund).
  • Budget: $300M (USA/Mexico: $150M, Energy Star: $100M, Fund: $100M).
  • Implications: Scales to Phase 6’s $5B.

Sears Canada

  • Objective: Scale to 150 stores, 100 Saks/OFF 5TH, 3 hubs, 100 micro-DCs, 150 Auto Centers, 100 Optical ($300M), generating $20B.
  • Features:
    • Stores: 150 Sears, 100 Saks/OFF 5TH ($150M).
    • Logistics: 3 hubs, 100 micro-DCs ($100M).
    • Auto/Optical: 150 Auto Centers, 100 Optical ($100M).
  • Revenue: $20B ($7B stores, $8B Sears.com, $1B Auto, $400M Optical, $3.6B other).
  • Budget: $300M (stores: $150M, logistics: $100M, Auto/Optical: $100M).
  • Implications: Scales to Phase 6’s $25B.

Sears Academy

  • Objective: Train 35,000 technicians, retrain 25,000 employees ($200M).
  • Features:
    • Curriculum: IoT appliances, tools, computers, EV diagnostics, blockchain, SearsCoin ($100M).
    • Scholarships: 6,000 students/year ($80M).
    • Hiring: 90% to HomeForce/Auto Centers ($20M).
  • Revenue Uplift: $6B (HomeForce-driven).
  • Budget: $200M (curriculum: $100M, scholarships: $80M, hiring: $20M).
  • Implications: Scales to Phase 6’s $8B.

Acquisitions

  • Objective: Utilize Serta, iFixit, Western Forge, ShopYourWay, Atari Japan, Saks/OFF 5TH for $12B revenue.
  • Features:
    • Serta: Bedding ($4B).
    • iFixit: Guides ($1B).
    • Western Forge: Craftsman tools ($3B).
    • ShopYourWay: Loyalty ($2B).
    • Atari Japan: Gaming ($7B).
    • Saks/OFF 5TH: Luxury retail ($5B).
  • Revenue: $12B (included in Sears.com/stores).
  • Budget: $500M (Saks/OFF 5TH: $300M, integration: $200M).
  • Implications: Scales to Phase 6’s $15B.

Sears Ventures

  • Objective: Fund 40 retail-tech startups ($200M) for $1B revenue.
  • Features:
    • Focus: AI, IoT, gaming, blockchain, 6G, SearsCoin ($150M).
    • Support: 10–20% stakes ($50M).
  • Revenue: $1B.
  • Budget: $200M (fund: $150M, support: $50M).
  • Implications: Scales to Phase 6’s $1.5B.

Saks/OFF 5TH Acquisition and Texas Triangle Expansion

  • Objective: Acquire Saks/OFF 5TH for $500M, expand 20 stores in Texas Triangle, generating $5B revenue.
  • Features:
    • Stores: 100 (50 U.S., 50 Canada, $200M), plus 20 Texas Triangle (5 Dallas, 5 Houston, 5 Austin, 5 San Antonio, $80M), all SearsCoin mining hubs.
    • Online: Luxury apparel/home on Sears.com ($200M).
    • Integration: AI-driven personalization ($100M).
  • Revenue: $5B ($4B U.S., $1B Canada).
  • Budget: $400M (acquisition: $200M, integration: $100M, Texas stores: $80M).
  • Implications: Scales to Phase 6’s $7B, Texas presence strengthens.

Cub Cadet Partnership

  • Objective: Maintain retail and partnership for $700M revenue.
  • Features:
    • Retail: Smart mowers on Sears.com ($300M).
    • Partnership: IoT-enabled mowers, HomeForce support ($400M).
  • Revenue: $700M.
  • Budget: $150M (partnership: $150M).
  • Implications: Scales to Phase 6’s $1B.

Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF), Sears Crypto Fund, and SearsCoin

  • Objective: Grow SWF from $1.5B to $2B, Sears Crypto Fund from $690M to $1.2B, SearsCoin to 5M coins ($200M budget), generating $450M combined ($200M SWF, $150M Crypto Fund, $100M SearsCoin).
  • SWF Features:
    • Managed by Sears Investment Office, investing in tech, real estate, stocks, bonds ($150M).
    • Returns: 6% annually ($50M).
  • Sears Crypto Fund Features:
    • Holds 10,000 BTC from Phase 4 ($1B at $100,000, 2025: $690M at $69,000), adds 2,500 BTC from payments (5,000 BTC total, $500M at $100,000).
    • Invests $200M in blockchain startups, DeFi ($100M revenue).
    • Generates $50M transaction fees (3% of $8.1B crypto transactions).
    • Partnership with Coinbase ($20M, storage/processing).
  • SearsCoin Features:
    • Launched 2026 ($100M), 21M total supply, 5M mined by 2030 (1M/year at Sears/Saks stores).
    • Proof-of-retail mining: $100/spend = 1 SearsCoin, HomeForce $200 = 2 coins, workshops $50 = 0.5 coins.
    • Programmable smart contracts, redeemable on Sears.com ($1/coin), tradable ($2–$5/coin market value).
    • Generates $100M ($50M fees, $50M loyalty sales).
    • Blockchain nodes at 1,500 stores, synced via Coinbase ($50M).
  • Revenue: $450M ($200M SWF, $150M Crypto Fund, $100M SearsCoin).
  • Budget: $450M ($150M SWF operations, $150M Crypto Fund, $100M SearsCoin, $50M growth).
  • Implications: Scales to Phase 6’s $2.5B SWF, $2B Crypto Fund, 10M SearsCoins.

APAC Expansion Preparation

  • Objective: Lay groundwork for Sears.com/logistics in Tokyo, Osaka, Singapore, Korea ($150M), targeting 2031 launch.
  • Features:
    • Market research: Consumer preferences, regulations ($50M).
    • Partnerships: Local retailers, logistics firms in Japan, Singapore, Korea ($50M).
    • SKUs: Develop 1M localized SKUs (Kenmore, Atari Japan, Saks/OFF 5TH, SearsCoin rewards, $50M).
  • Revenue: $0 (preparatory phase).
  • Budget: $150M (research: $50M, partnerships: $50M, SKUs: $50M).
  • Implications: Sets Phase 6’s $20B APAC revenue.

Financial Snapshot (2030)

  • Revenue: $320.35B
    • Sears.com: $270B ($250B U.S., $20B Canada)
    • Stores: $15.1B ($13B U.S., $2B Canada, $100M Texas Triangle)
    • Auto Centers: $9B ($8B U.S., $1B Canada)
    • Allstate: $1B
    • Logistics: $25B ($23B U.S., $2B Canada)
    • HomeForce/PartsDirect: $9B ($8B U.S., $1B Canada)
    • Optical: $1.2B ($800M U.S., $400M Canada)
    • Sears Pay/Card: $1.1B
    • Community Fund: $200M
    • Ventures: $1B
    • Saks/OFF 5TH: $5B ($4B U.S., $1B Canada)
    • Cub Cadet: $700M
    • SWF: $200M
    • Sears Crypto Fund: $150M
    • SearsCoin: $100M
    • Licensing/Other: $1.7B
  • EBITDA: $19.221B (6% margin)
  • Valuation: $288.315B (15x EBITDA)
  • Budget: $7.65B
  • Funding: $10.112B
  • Surplus: $2.462B
  • Debt: $0
  • Implications: $2.462B surplus supports Phase 6’s $400–410B revenue.

Competitive Positioning

Metric Sears (2030) Amazon (2030) Home Depot (2030) Walmart (2030)
Revenue $320.35B $750B $250B $600B
E-commerce Users 350M 300M ~12M ~25M
Market Share 50% appliances, 35% tools, 20% auto, 14% e-commerce, 20% gaming, 2.2% optical, 0.02% crypto 25% e-commerce 4% parts 1% retail
Valuation $288.315B $2.5T $350B $500B

Timeline

  • 2025–2026: Acquire Saks/OFF 5TH ($500M), open 5 Saks OFF 5TH and 2 Sears stores in Texas Triangle, draw $500M credit, raise $5B equity, launch SearsCoin ($100M), scale Sears.com to $230B (320M users, 65M Prime, 2% crypto transactions), logistics to 23 hubs, expand Crypto Fund ($50M), train 33,000 technicians (incl. blockchain/SearsCoin), begin APAC market research ($50M).
  • 2027–2028: Open 10 more Saks OFF 5TH and 5 Sears stores in Texas Triangle, integrate Saks/OFF 5TH ($3B online), scale Kenmore to $11B (48%), Craftsman to $9B (33%), DieHard to $7B (33%), mine 2M SearsCoins, hit 25 hubs, 340M users, 3% crypto transactions, develop APAC SKUs ($50M).
  • 2029–2030: Complete 20 Saks OFF 5TH and 10 Sears Texas stores, hit $270B Sears.com, $12B Kenmore (50%), $10B Craftsman (35%), $8B DieHard (35%), Crypto Fund to $1.2B (12,500 BTC), mine 5M SearsCoins, achieve $320.35B revenue, $288.315B valuation, finalize APAC partnerships ($50M).

Risks and Mitigation

  • Risks: Amazon’s $750B growth, logistics costs ($300M/year), labor shortages ($50M), Saks/OFF 5TH integration ($150M), crypto volatility ($100M), Texas/APAC expansion delays ($50M), SearsCoin adoption ($50M).
  • Mitigation: $2.462B surplus (incl. crypto gains), $5B equity, $2B SWF, 70M Prime subscribers, Sears Academy (blockchain/SearsCoin training), FedEx partnership, Capcom/Taito support, Coinbase partnership.

Compendium (Appendix)

  • Factories:
    • Craftsman: Dallas, 2000, 2M power tools/year, 70% U.S.-sourced.
    • Western Forge Colorado: 2009, 1M hand tools/year, 70% U.S.-sourced.
    • Western Forge Texas: 2015, 6M hand tools/year, 70% U.S.-sourced.
    • DieHard: Dallas, 1993, 4M batteries/year, 70% U.S.-sourced.
    • Coldspot: Dallas, 1989, 600,000 units/year, 65% U.S.-sourced.
    • Harmony House: Mexico, 2025, 1.5M bedding units/year, 50% Mexico-sourced.
    • Atari Mini: Osaka, 2015, 10M units/year.
  • SKUs: 6M (2025), 8M (2030: 4.8M first-party, 3.2M third-party); Saks/OFF 5TH: 50,000; Auto: 3,000.
  • Employees: 241,500 (2030): 101,000 retail (incl. 1,000 Texas Triangle), 45,500 logistics (incl. 500 APAC prep), 35,000 HomeForce, 21,000 tech (incl. 1,000 crypto/SearsCoin specialists), 10,000 factories, 2,000 HQ, 8,000 Auto Centers, 4,000 Optical, 3,000 Atari Japan, 10,000 Canada, 2,000 Saks/OFF 5TH, 500 Community Fund, 500 Ventures.
  • Budgets: Sears.com ($2B), Logistics ($1.2B), Brands ($800M), Atari Japan ($400M), Saks/OFF 5TH ($400M), Sears Pay/Card ($450M), Sears Crypto Fund ($150M), SearsCoin ($100M), APAC Prep ($150M).
  • Sears Canada: 150 Sears stores, 100 Saks/OFF 5TH, 3 hubs, 100 micro-DCs, $20B.
  • Production Partners:
    • Whirlpool ($80M)
    • Stanley Black & Decker ($50M)
    • Cooper Tire ($30M)
    • Serta ($50M)
    • Sony ($50M)
    • Sherwin-Williams ($30M)
    • Danaher ($30M)
    • Nike ($20M)
    • Levi’s ($20M)
    • Duracell ($20M)
    • Cub Cadet ($20M)
    • Carhartt ($20M)
    • Lenovo ($20M)
    • John Deere ($20M)
    • Under Armour ($20M)
    • Taito/Namco ($50M)
    • Capcom ($50M)
    • Evercade ($50M)
  • Promotion Partners:
    • Google ($200M)
    • Instagram/TikTok ($100M)
    • YouTube ($50M)
    • HGTV ($30M)
    • Popular Mechanics ($30M)
    • Indy 500 ($20M)
    • Twitch ($30M)
  • Crypto Partners:
    • Coinbase ($20M, payment processing, storage, SearsCoin integration)

Posted by at
Labels:

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)