A new model from Bitcoin researcher Sminston With projects that Bitcoin (BTC) may still have significant upside potential, with a cycle peak between $220,000 and $330,000 by the end of 2025. The forecast implies a 100% to 200% gain from current price levels around $108,000.
With’s analysis, published on X, is based on a 365-day simple moving average (SMA) aligned with a power law model that boasts an R² of 0.96, suggesting a strong fit. Historically, Bitcoin’s 365-day SMA has peaked at 2–3x above the trendline during bull markets — a pattern that would place the next top well above six figures.
📊 Challenging the Volatility Myth
The model also disputes the widely held belief that Bitcoin’s price cycles are becoming less volatile. A deviation chart shared by With shows that BTC’s cyclical volatility remains consistent, contradicting the notion of a long-term softening in price swings.
With previously predicted Bitcoin’s six-figure rise in Q3 2024 when BTC was still trading near $60,000, lending credibility to his current outlook. However, he cautioned that his forecasts are based on only four historical cycles and should be approached with measured skepticism.
📉 Long-Term Holders Signal Caution
Despite the bullish projection, on-chain data presents a more cautious picture. According to Glassnode, long-term holders (LTHs) have moved $4.02 billion in BTC over recent weeks — the largest selling activity from 1–5 year holders since February. Such large transfers have historically coincided with market peaks and profit-taking events.
Notably, the 3–5 year cohort was responsible for over half of the total volume, signaling potential unease among seasoned investors as Bitcoin struggles to hold above $110,000.
📉 Technical Setups Show Sideways Consolidation
From a charting perspective, Bitcoin continues to form higher highs and higher lows since bottoming at $74,500. However, BTC is currently locked in a sideways range, with recent price action showing a pattern of brief rallies followed by local corrections.
Crypto analyst TXMC added that BTC may be approaching a near-term pullback, noting that Bitcoin has completed seven consecutive green weekly candles — historically a precursor to consolidation or correction.
🧠Outlook:
While technical models point to a possible rally toward $330,000, increasing long-term holder activity and market fatigue may temper the upside in the short term. For now, Bitcoin appears caught between bullish macro potential and near-term consolidation risk.
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