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Here is Your Complete Market Rundown (12/11/2025)
Today's Top Story:
Zelenskiy Proposes Donbas Referendum as Trump Administration Intensifies Peace Push
Ukraine’s President Zelenskiy suggested a referendum on territorial control in Donbas as peace negotiations advance, with an updated proposal submitted to Washington. The US seeks understanding on peace terms by Christmas while proposing a free economic zone in withdrawn areas. Separately, Trump sanctioned Venezuelan officials and seized oil tankers.
Company News:
Oracle Corporation (ORCL)
Performance Overview
1D Change: -11.05%
5D Change: -7.3%
News Volume: 474
Unusual Volume Factor: 11x
Oracle Shares Plunge 12% as Surging AI Spending and Weak Guidance Reignite Tech Bubble Fears
Oracle Corporation suffered its worst single-day decline since the early 2000s on December 11, with shares tumbling as much as 16% and erasing over $100 billion in market value after the company reported disappointing Q2 fiscal 2026 results. While cloud revenue surged 69% year-over-year and the company added $15 billion to its remaining performance obligations, bringing the backlog to a record $523 billion, investors reacted negatively to revenue guidance that fell short of expectations and a dramatic increase in capital expenditure plans.
The company raised its fiscal 2026 capital expenditure forecast to approximately $50 billion from $35 billion previously, representing a $15 billion increase to support AI infrastructure buildout. This massive spending increase, coupled with third-quarter revenue growth guidance of 19-21% that merely met estimates, sparked concerns about the timing mismatch between infrastructure investment and revenue conversion.
The Walt Disney Company (DIS)
Performance Overview
1D Change: 2.47%
5D Change: 5.64%
News Volume: 162
Unusual Volume Factor: 5x
Disney Invests $1 Billion in OpenAI, Licenses 200+ Characters for Sora Video Platform While Sending Cease-and-Desist to Google
Walt Disney Company announced a landmark partnership with OpenAI, making a $1 billion equity investment and becoming the first major content licensing partner for Sora, OpenAI’s AI video generation platform. The deal grants access to over 200 Disney characters spanning Marvel, Pixar, Star Wars, and classic Disney properties including Mickey Mouse, Cinderella, and Simba for user-generated short-form videos beginning in early 2026.
Under the agreement, Disney will receive warrants to purchase additional OpenAI equity and become a major customer of the AI company, using its APIs to build new products and experiences. CEO Bob Iger described the investment as both financially strategic and a way to reach younger audiences, noting that Disney will curate select Sora-generated videos for Disney Plus. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman stated the partnership is expected to drive incremental revenue, with Disney maintaining the ability to set and evolve content guardrails over time. The deal notably excludes talent likenesses and voices.
Visa Inc. (V)
Performance Overview
1D Change: 6.16%
5D Change: 5.69%
Visa Stock Surges to Best Day in Eight Months on BofA Upgrade and Stablecoin Optimism
Visa shares led Dow gainers on December 11, climbing over 4% in their strongest single-day performance since April 2022. The rally came after Bank of America Securities upgraded the stock to Buy, calling it a “great business on sale” with attractive return potential and robust fundamentals. The upgrade highlighted Visa’s positioning in the emerging stablecoin market as a growth opportunity rather than a competitive threat, contrasting with BofA’s simultaneous downgrade of rival PayPal.
Analysts emphasized the company’s strong underlying business fundamentals and upside potential in the evolving digital payments landscape. Credit card stocks broadly rallied, with both Visa and Mastercard posting gains exceeding 4% while the S&P 500 remained relatively flat—a rare occurrence not seen since April 2022. The sector strength pushed Visa among the day’s largest market cap movers alongside Oracle.
Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD)
Performance Overview
1D Change: -8.97%
5D Change: -9.98%
Robinhood Stock Falls 8.97% as November Trading Volumes Disappoint
Robinhood Markets shares dropped more than 8% following the release of disappointing November trading volumes.
Despite the decline, analysts maintained positive outlooks with Cantor Fitzgerald reaffirming its Overweight rating while lowering its price target to $152 from $155, still indicating 20% upside potential. Loop Capital Markets also sees 20% upside for the stock.
Macro Events
Fed Delivers Third Rate Cut of Year Amid Market Uncertainty and Political Pressure
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter point, its third reduction this year, surprising markets after Chair Jerome Powell had previously discouraged expectations for a pre-holiday cut. The decision sparked mixed reactions across financial markets. Bond yields initially fell and gold surged above $4,270, while European markets rallied on the news. However, the Fed's hawkish tone raised questions about future policy direction, with officials appearing divided on the path forward. The central bank also announced $40 billion in Treasury bill purchases to calm markets amid growing AI bubble concerns. President Trump publicly called for more aggressive cuts, adding political pressure to the Fed's deliberations. Some analysts suggest the case for additional cuts may strengthen due to potential systematic overcounting in jobs data. Market observers warn the bond rally may prove temporary, with global rates potentially heading higher despite the Fed's accommodative stance.
Fed Launches $54 Billion Treasury Purchase Program Through Mid-January
The Federal Reserve announced a new reserve management program involving approximately $54 billion in Treasury purchases between December 12 and January 14. The New York Fed will begin with $8.2 billion in one-to-four-month T-bills on Friday, December 12, with an additional $40 billion in reserve management purchases and $14.4 billion in reinvestment purchases planned over the following month. The announcement follows the Fed's latest rate cut, which initially sparked a 600-point rally in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and a bond market rally with falling yields. However, analysts at JPMorgan and Barclays note the Fed will absorb a major portion of short-term bill issuance as the Treasury concentrates funding on the short end of the curve. Market observers express mixed reactions, with some viewing the moves as stabilizing while others warn of potential risks ahead as the Fed enters what some call an unknown era for monetary policy.
Modi and Trump Hold Third Call Since Tariff Hike as Trade Talks Continue
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Donald Trump spoke by phone to discuss bilateral relations, marking their third conversation since recent tariff increases strained ties. The leaders reviewed progress in the India-U.S. partnership and expressed satisfaction with growing cooperation across multiple sectors. Modi emphasized expanding collaboration in trade, critical technologies, energy, defense, and security. The call comes as U.S. trade negotiators concluded their India visit, with both sides agreeing to continue discussions toward resolving differences over an elusive trade agreement. The diplomatic engagement occurs amid congressional criticism of Trump's India foreign policy following Modi's recent meeting with Putin. Meanwhile, Trump announced the stock market hit an all-time high, claiming credit for strong economic performance.
US Trade Deficit Narrows Sharply to $52.8B, Beating Forecasts as Exports Surge
The US trade deficit narrowed significantly to $52.8 billion in September, well below the expected $63.1 billion and previous $59.6 billion. Exports jumped 3.0% month-over-month while imports rose just 0.6%, marking a substantial improvement in the trade balance. Meanwhile, continuing jobless claims dropped by 99,000 to 1.838 million, a larger decline than anticipated. Canada reported an unexpected trade surplus for September, though data reliability remains affected by the US government shutdown.
US Jobless Claims Jump to 236K, Exceeding Forecasts
Initial unemployment claims rose to 236,000 for the week ending December 6, surpassing the 220,000 estimate and marking a 44,000 increase from the prior week. Continuing claims fell to 1.838 million, below expectations of 1.95 million.
US Sanctions Target Maduro Family Members and Venezuelan Oil Transport
The Trump Administration imposed sanctions on three nephews of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and six vessels carrying Venezuelan oil. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the measures, which reportedly respond to Venezuela's alleged involvement in drug trafficking activities.
Swiss National Bank Holds Rates at Zero as US Tariff Relief Brightens Economic Outlook
The Swiss National Bank maintained its policy rate at 0.0% today, citing improved economic prospects following reduced US tariffs on Swiss goods. The central bank raised its 2025 GDP growth forecast to around 1.5% from a previous range of 1.0-1.5%, while projecting 2026 growth at approximately 1%. Inflation has undershot expectations, prompting the SNB to lower its 2026 inflation forecast to 0.3% from 0.5% and its 2027 projection to 0.6% from 0.7%. Despite the weaker inflation outlook, policymakers judged conditions insufficient to warrant a return to negative interest rates. The bank noted that while US trade policy uncertainty initially weighed on global growth, economic resilience has exceeded expectations. The SNB emphasized its continued willingness to intervene in foreign exchange markets as needed, though unemployment is expected to rise somewhat in coming quarters.
Federal Reserve Reappoints 11 Regional Bank Presidents to Five-Year Terms
The Federal Reserve's Board of Governors unanimously voted Wednesday to reappoint 11 reserve bank presidents to new five-year terms starting March 1st. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will retire in February.
SNB Holds Rates at Zero as Sweden Reports Steady Inflation
The Swiss National Bank maintained its policy rate at 0.00% as expected while lowering medium-term inflation forecasts to 0.3% for 2026 and 0.6% for 2027. The bank raised its 2025 GDP outlook to 1.5%. Meanwhile, Swedish inflation data met expectations at 0.3% year-over-year and negative 0.4% month-over-month.
European Stocks Mixed as Tech Weakness Offsets Fed Decision Relief
European indexes traded mixed with technology sector declines weighing on markets despite investor relief following the Federal Reserve's latest decision and Oracle's earnings results.
Geopolitics Events
Trump Launches $1 Million Gold Card Visa Program for Fast-Track US Residency
The Trump administration opened applications Wednesday for the Trump Gold Card program, offering foreign nationals permanent US resident status for $1 million. The fast-tracked visa pathway targets wealthy non-citizens seeking expedited permission to live in the country. Meanwhile, ICE has threatened family separation and indefinite detention to meet deportation targets, and Mexico has aligned with US trade policy against Chinese imports.
NATO Chief Urges Allies to Boost Defense Spending as Trump Emerges as Key to Putin Negotiations
NATO Secretary General Rutte warned that too many allies underestimate Russia's threat and called for rapid increases in defense spending and production. He positioned Trump as uniquely capable of bringing Putin to negotiations while highlighting China's critical role in sustaining Russia's war effort. The appeal comes as Russia courts Trump and European leaders scramble to maintain influence, with Germany's foreign minister echoing calls for urgent Ukraine support.
Putin Pledges Support to Venezuela, Plans Iran Meeting
Russian President Vladimir Putin held a phone call with Venezuelan President Maduro, expressing solidarity and confirming Russian support while discussing joint economic and energy projects. Putin is also scheduled to meet Iran's President Pezeshkian in Turkmenistan.
Canada Posts First Trade Surplus Since January at C$153 Million
Canada recorded a C$153 million trade surplus in September, ending seven consecutive months of deficits. The turnaround came as exports rebounded sharply while imports declined, beating economist expectations of a continued deficit.
Grand Jury Twice Rejects Trump Administration's Attempt to Indict NY Attorney General James
The Justice Department failed for a second time to secure a grand jury indictment against New York Attorney General Letitia James, dealing a significant setback to the Trump administration's efforts. Separately, Ukraine presented Trump with a revised peace proposal featuring a free economic zone and mutual withdrawal from a demilitarized area in the Donbas, though the president has not yet responded. Indiana Senate Republicans also rejected new congressional maps, defying Trump's redistricting initiative.
China Accelerates Business Payment Clearance and Fiscal Stimulus Plans for 2026
China announced plans to expedite overdue payments to businesses while outlining comprehensive fiscal and monetary strategies for 2026, signaling increased reliance on fiscal stimulus to manage economic growth. The government also urged stabilizing birth rates amid demographic concerns. Separately, China led international objections to Trump's proposed reprieve on the global minimum tax, according to the Financial Times.
Trump Administration Announces $12 Billion Farm Bailout Amid Trade War Fallout
The White House is implementing a $12 billion bailout program for American farmers struggling to compete in global markets, particularly soybean producers affected by trade tensions. The relief package raises questions about the administration's trade war strategy, with critics noting the need for repeated compensation payments to offset economic damage. Meanwhile, President Trump's approval ratings on economy and immigration have declined substantially since March according to AP-NORC polling. In other developments, mortgage rates have decreased under the current administration, and the White House seized an oil tanker near Venezuela.
Warren Challenges Trump Administration Over Nvidia H200 Chip Sales to China
Senator Elizabeth Warren accused the Trump administration of compromising national security by permitting Nvidia to sell H200 chips to China, demanding testimony from CEO Jensen Huang and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. The White House clarified the chips will only ship to approved Chinese customers, not broadly across China. Analysts suggest the limited sales won't derail China's domestic semiconductor development strategy.
Trump Brokers Nvidia Chip Deal as Winklevoss Twins Credit President for Crypto Gains
Commerce Secretary Lutnick confirmed President Trump personally negotiated a deal with Nvidia's CEO regarding H200 chips. The Winklevoss twins attributed Gemini Space Station's stock surge in prediction markets to Trump's pro-cryptocurrency policies. Separately, Trump criticized CNN's ownership as Warner Bros. Discovery considers acquisition offers from Netflix and Paramount.
Indiana Senate Rejects Trump-Backed Congressional Map
Indiana's Republican-controlled Senate voted down new congressional district maps despite President Trump's support, marking a notable GOP defection from the former president's redistricting efforts ahead of midterm elections.
Grand Jury Rejects Second Trump Administration Attempt to Indict NY Attorney General Letitia James
A federal grand jury declined the Justice Department's renewed effort to indict New York Attorney General Letitia James on alleged mortgage fraud charges, marking the second failed prosecution attempt.
Technology Events
Disney Invests $1 Billion in OpenAI, Licenses Characters for Sora Video Platform
Walt Disney is making a $1 billion equity investment in OpenAI and signing a three-year licensing agreement that grants Sora access to over 200 characters across Disney's portfolio, including Marvel, Pixar, and Star Wars franchises. Starting in early 2026, users will be able to create short-form AI-generated videos featuring iconic characters like Mickey Mouse and Cinderella. The partnership marks Disney's first major content licensing deal in the AI space and positions the company as a significant OpenAI customer. Both companies emphasized their commitment to responsible AI use and creator rights protection. The deal represents a strategic shift for Disney from litigation over AI content to active collaboration, potentially reshaping Hollywood's content creation landscape.
Rivian Ditches Nvidia for In-House AI Chip in Autonomous Driving Push
Rivian unveiled its proprietary AI chip at its inaugural Autonomy & AI Day, replacing Nvidia hardware in future vehicles with technology the company claims delivers four times better performance. The electric vehicle maker announced plans to integrate LiDAR sensors into upcoming R2 models and introduce a $2,500 driver-assistance package, diverging from Tesla's camera-only approach. The company also revealed robotaxi ambitions and confirmed its AI assistant will launch in early 2026, signaling a comprehensive autonomous driving strategy built on custom silicon and next-generation sensor technology.
Broadcom Surges on Strong Q4 Beat and Forecast for AI Chip Sales to Double
Broadcom reported fourth-quarter results that exceeded Wall Street expectations across all key metrics, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.95 versus estimates of $1.87 and revenue of $18.02 billion against forecasts of $17.47 billion. Semiconductor Solutions revenue reached $11.07 billion, topping the $10.74 billion estimate. The company's first-quarter revenue guidance of approximately $19.1 billion significantly surpassed analyst expectations of $18.48 billion. Most notably, Broadcom forecasts AI chip revenue will double year-over-year to $8.2 billion in the current quarter, driven by sustained demand for custom chips powering artificial intelligence data centers. Shares initially fell as much as 4.5 percent ahead of the report before rallying on the results. The stock has climbed 74 percent this year, with 60 percent of those gains coming in the past six months, reflecting strong momentum in the AI semiconductor sector.
OpenAI Launches GPT-5.2 Model in Escalating Competition with Google
OpenAI released GPT-5.2, an advanced AI model enhancing ChatGPT's performance in coding, science, and workplace tasks, intensifying its rivalry with Google in the artificial intelligence sector.
Time Magazine Names Architects of AI as 2025 Person of the Year
Time Magazine selected the Architects of AI as its Person of the Year for 2025, recognizing the collective impact of artificial intelligence developers on society.
AI Stocks Tumble as Oracle Forecast Sparks Spending Concerns
AI-related stocks declined Thursday after Oracle's disappointing forecasts raised questions about artificial intelligence spending. Nvidia fell 2%, AMD dropped 2.4%, and Micron slid 1.5%, while CoreWeave plunged 7.5%. The selloff dragged the S&P 500 and Nasdaq lower despite a less hawkish Federal Reserve stance. The Dow Jones edged higher.
Broadcom Forecasts Strong Revenue Growth on Surging AI Chip Demand
Broadcom issued an upbeat quarterly revenue forecast, projecting AI chip sales will double in the current quarter as robust demand for AI data center equipment drives growth, while beating earnings expectations.
Healthcare Events
Eli Lilly's Retatrutide Achieves 71-Pound Weight Loss and Pain Relief in Phase 3 Trial
Eli Lilly announced successful Phase 3 results for retatrutide, its triple agonist obesity drug, in the TRIUMPH-4 trial. Patients on the 12 mg dose lost an average of 28.7% of body weight, approximately 71 pounds, over 68 weeks compared to 2.1% for placebo. The drug also demonstrated significant benefits for knee osteoarthritis, reducing pain scores by roughly 76% versus 40% on placebo. Seven additional Phase 3 trials for the once-weekly treatment in obesity and type 2 diabetes are expected to complete in 2026.
Obesity Drug Developments Drive Biotech Surge as GSK Wins FDA Approval for Gonorrhea Treatment
Biotech stocks hit record highs amid obesity drug advances, with Eli Lilly's new treatment and Zealand Pharma's long-term GLP-1 challenger drawing attention, while Corbus declined after disappointing early-stage obesity results. GSK secured FDA approval for Blujepa, an oral gonorrhea treatment. AC Immune reported promising early data suggesting immunotherapy may slow Parkinson's progression. Natera unveiled breast cancer test data potentially reshaping disease management, and Scancell's iSCIB1+ showed improved progression-free survival in advanced melanoma.
AC Immune Parkinson's Treatment Shows Promise as Biotech Sector Reports Multiple Trial Advances
AC Immune's stock surged 17.6% in premarket trading after interim Phase 2 data showed its ACI-7104.056 treatment may slow Parkinson's disease progression. The positive results highlight a broader wave of clinical developments across biotechnology, with IDYA completing enrollment in its pivotal uveal melanoma trial expecting Q1 topline data, Immatics presenting promising PRAME cell therapy results at ESMO-IO, and BeyondSpring reporting survival benefits in lung cancer treatment. Purple Biotech also disclosed positive preclinical data for its tri-specific antibodies at the same conference.
Lilly's Next-Gen Obesity Drug Outperforms Zepbound in Osteoarthritis Trial
Eli Lilly's experimental weight loss drug demonstrated superior efficacy to Zepbound in late-stage trials, delivering significant weight reduction and decreased knee pain in osteoarthritis patients.
Crypto Events
Bitcoin Retreats Below $90,000 as Fed Rate Cut Fails to Spark Rally
Bitcoin fell below the $90,000 threshold this week despite the Federal Reserve cutting rates to 3.5%-3.75% for the third consecutive time. The cryptocurrency struggled to reclaim the $94,000 level amid a weakening dollar and broader market softness. Analysts warn Bitcoin faces structural fragility and deeper downside risks, while industry observers note institutions now demand tangible value over narrative-driven hype. Altcoins also declined, with TON dropping 3.3% to $1.59.
XRP Plunges Below $2, Erasing $6 Billion in Market Value Despite Strong ETF Inflows
XRP dropped below $2, wiping out $6 billion in market capitalization despite XRP ETFs absorbing nearly $1 billion in 18 days. The cryptocurrency fell 8% over the week, with traders monitoring critical support at $1.90 and analysts warning of potential further decline to $1.80 as speculative activity fades.
Oil And Gas Events
IEA Trims Oil Surplus Forecast as Demand Strengthens and Supply Growth Slows
The International Energy Agency reduced its forecast for the global oil supply surplus for the first time since May, cutting 2025 supply growth estimates by 100,000 barrels per day and 2026 estimates by 20,000 bpd. The agency now projects world oil supply will exceed demand by 3.84 million bpd in 2026, down from a previous forecast of 4.09 million bpd. The revision reflects stronger demand growth, with 2025 estimates raised to 830,000 bpd and 2026 to 860,000 bpd, alongside declining output from sanctions-hit Russia and Venezuela, which pushed November global supply down 610,000 bpd month-over-month. The IEA noted parallel markets of surging crude output and stocks contrasting with tight refined fuel markets will persist. Meanwhile, European natural gas futures rose from 20-month lows as traders assessed slowing LNG flows, and Kazakhstan confirmed it will meet its 2025 oil production target despite expected decreases in CPC pipeline exports to 68 million tons.
Oil Prices Decline as OPEC Projects Balanced 2026 Market
WTI crude settled down 1.47% at $57.60 per barrel, while Brent fell 1.49% to $61.28. OPEC data indicates a balanced oil supply-demand outlook for 2026 with no anticipated glut. Natural gas futures rose to $4.23 per MMBtu.
Oil Prices Hit Four-Month Low Despite U.S. Crackdown on Venezuelan Crude Shipments
Oil prices fell to their lowest levels since October even as U.S.-Venezuela tensions escalated through tanker seizures. The U.S. is preparing to seize additional vessels transporting Venezuelan oil, with actions potentially extending to tankers carrying other sanctioned crude including Iranian supplies. Previous seizures have already suspended at least three shipments totaling 6 million barrels of Venezuela's Merey crude. The enforcement campaign aims to curtail cash flow to Venezuela's government, though the supply disruptions have failed to alter crude oil's broader market trajectory.
European Gas Futures Rise as LNG Shipments Slow
European natural gas futures climbed from a 20-month low as traders assessed the impact of declining LNG flows on regional supply. Energy Transfer expects an investment decision on its Lake Charles LNG project in early 2026.
Fixed Income And Interest Rates Events
Fed Launches $54 Billion Treasury Purchase Program Through Mid-January
The Federal Reserve announced a new reserve management program involving approximately $54 billion in Treasury purchases between December 12 and January 14. The New York Fed will begin with $8.2 billion in one-to-four-month T-bills on Friday, December 12, with an additional $40 billion in reserve management purchases and $14.4 billion in reinvestment purchases planned over the following month. The announcement follows the Fed's latest rate cut, which initially sparked a 600-point rally in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and a bond market rally with falling yields. However, analysts at JPMorgan and Barclays note the Fed will absorb a major portion of short-term bill issuance as the Treasury concentrates funding on the short end of the curve. Market observers express mixed reactions, with some viewing the moves as stabilizing while others warn of potential risks ahead as the Fed enters what some call an unknown era for monetary policy.
Treasury 30-Year Bond Auction Shows Solid Demand at 4.773% Yield
The U.S. Treasury sold $22 billion in 30-year bonds at a high yield of 4.773%, up from 4.694% previously, with the auction stopping 0.1 basis points through the when-issued rate. Bid-to-cover ratio improved to 2.36 from 2.29, matching the six-month average. Direct bidders took 23.5% versus 14.5% prior, while indirect bidders declined to 65.4% from 71.0%. Primary dealers absorbed 11.2% of the offering, reflecting steady demand.
Earnings Events
Lululemon Beats Q3 Estimates But Guides Q4 Below Expectations as CEO McDonald Announces Departure
Lululemon reported third-quarter revenue of $2.57 billion and earnings per share of $2.59, surpassing analyst estimates of $2.48 billion and $2.22 respectively. Gross margin reached 55.6%, beating the 54.4% forecast. International comparable sales rose 18%, while Americas comparable sales declined 5%, missing the estimated 3.62% drop. The company issued fourth-quarter revenue guidance of $3.50-$3.59 billion, below the $3.59 billion consensus, though it raised full-year EPS outlook to $12.92-$13.02. CEO Calvin McDonald announced plans to step down with a succession process underway.
Costco Beats Q1 Earnings Expectations with Strong Sales Growth
Costco reported first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings per share of $4.50, surpassing analyst estimates of $4.28. Total revenue reached $67.31 billion, exceeding the $67.07 billion forecast. Comparable sales excluding fuel and foreign exchange effects rose 6.4%, beating the 5.92% estimate. E-commerce sales surged 20.5%, while membership fee revenue totaled $1.77 billion. Net income was $2.00 billion on net sales of $65.98 billion.
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