Thoughts on Current State of Market Affairs.

With about 100,000 unique visitors per day, having made some deeper connections in the hobby like to think have a good read on what's happening. At least, the financial side of the things. There's a lot up in the air right now creating a lot of turmoil, never seen a faster 180 from demand rejecting the current market prices for example. So am going to give thoughts on current state of market affairs and what think could happen next.

Crypto & AI Stocks Sell-Off - There's been a correlation between the hobby and crypto market for at least five years now, speculative funds moves together these days. In the last two months, Bitcoin has dropped nearly 30% from its peak of $125k. Most speculative data center and AI related stocks including NVDA down 15-25% as well. Before the gains made, used to go to big Pokemon purchases, sealed, but when these markets crash demand freezes over.

When markets sell off, there's always mental battle of holding strong to your convictions vs. the taxing mental decay of seeing losses compound. Many investors begin to feel "learned helplessness", which is a psychological state where an ones believes they have no control over their situation due to repeated uncontrollable negative events. If these speculative markets sell-off more, we will see demand continue to freeze over and prices come down.

30th Could Be a Doozy - Am very big bull for what 30th could bring, but my grandest expectations have since tamed. The fed is beginning to lower rates. However, if the Fed is too slow to lower rates while liquidity conditions remain tight, growth and corporate earnings could suffer. This will trigger a sell-off before any rate cut relief comes. Historically, the market has always sold off when the fed begins rate cuts who're usually too slow to react.

What this means in layman's terms, things could get really bad next year then afterwards another big V shaped bull run. The cycle continues, the rich will buy during economic downturns, the less fortune will be forced to sell precious belongings just to stay afloat. We could see next year be an incredible 30th anniversary product wise, but many tapped out economically due to poorly ran and slow to react economic policy. The layoffs already beginning.

Holding Through Cycles is Key! - If 30th is a doozy, amazing, you'll be able to find product and deals "if" you have the funds to spend on what are unnecessary goods/luxury items. More cycles will continue, we will see another great depression eventually being realistic. The general rule still applies, hold long 10+ years for optimal results. Pokemon is the biggest collectable hobby in the world, the largest media franchise, beloved national treasure of an entire country. So, reframing your perspective is key. Anytime the market is roaring and pumping you are not getting a good deal. $300 booster boxes was terrible!

When market is boring, when prices are crashing, when product is readily available these are the best moments to be happy for. This post may sound like doom & gloom, the reality is a doozy of a 30th could be the best version of any 30th we could get. The goal always is to buy things which we can hold through cycles. This is why I'm wanting to buy shares over LEAPS more now for example. What is something we can hold onto for the next 20-30 years which will appreciate, gaining strength during each economic cycle? This is how the rich stay rich, growing their wealth. This is the key, holding through cycles.