Saturday, April 24, 2021

[EVENT] Financial actions in response to ROC nuclear crisis

5 minutes before start of trading day: China contacts Russia and Saudi Arabia (together, roughly ~$1T) to liquidate as much of their dollar assets during the trading day as possible, to avoid losing value on their dollar assets.

At start of trading day: China is immediately selling all government-owned treasuries and dollar assets (~$3T worth) in possession and transferring dollar proceeds from those actions into bitcoin, gold, and non-dollar currencies. It is also ordering large private Chinese institutions to do the same (~$1.2T worth), with the goal of total liquidation of assets within the current trading day.

The financial effects of this action are unclear, but given the typical daily trading volume for the US treasury market is $500-600 billion with a std dev of $50 billion, the price action during the day will be volatile. This would be a roughly 100-sigma event in the market.


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