Wednesday, December 12, 2018

US Government Shutdown & Impact on Bitcoin - 2013 vs 2018?

The POTUS has indicated that he is willing to shut down the US federal government over a contentious policy element on December 21st, 2018.

In 2013 the US federal government was shut down for roughly two weeks over a funding dispute related to the Affordable Care Act. This occurred from October 1st to October 17th.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_federal_government_shutdown_of_2013

We also saw a significant bull run that started almost immediately after October 1st, 2013 and peaked around December 1st of that same year.

The question is - are these events coincidental? Typically I ascribe a risk-off attitude towards Bitcoin. I.e. if the stock market crashes I think people will flee to things like treasuries, cash, and high-grade bonds. In the event of a federal shutdown I'm not sure that Bitcoin doesn't necessarily become a hedge against governmental uncertainty.

What are your thoughts?


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