Dear follow Redditor:
It is our current belief that buying any cryptocurrency at this time is a BAD idea. You are likely to lose the majority of your investment if you don't heed this advice.
The two primary reasons for our view at this time are as follows:
- Mt. Gox Rehabilitation - Mt. Gox was the largest cryptocurrency exchange at the time it failed in 2014. Since then, the organization has gone through bankruptcy in which the trustee has sold a certain amount of Bitcoin (BTC) and Bitcoin Cash (BCH) to fund payments to creditors. Because they have recovered the lost dollar value, they are now entering civil rehabilitation. This process includes taking the remaining Bitcoin and distributing it to holders. Currently, there is more than 137,000 BTC remaining to be distributed. Source: https://www.cryptoground.com/mtgox-cold-wallet-monitor/ . This will have a major impact on the price of BTC since the dollar value at the time of the Mt. Gox failure was around $400 per BTC. These holders will be eager to cash in on the major price increase since that time, no doubt, putting enormous pressure on BTC's price. This process has been delayed a few times with the latest update being sometime in October 2019. It's likely it could be delayed again into early 2020.
- Bitfinex/Tether - Bitfinex is a large cryptocurrency exchange with common ownership of Tether. Tether is the US dollar tied stable coin that makes up most of the cryptocurrency trading volume across the globe. Tether was originally designed to have a value 1:1 against USD. A recent investigation by the New York Attorney General's office has uncovered wide spread fraud and self dealing between Bitfinex and Tether showing that Tether is not backed 1:1 against USD. Therefore, their claims as such in the past have been fraudulent and they are most likely involved in money laundering and a host of other illegal acts. It's only a matter of time before their operation is shutdown and Tether trading against BTC and many other cryptocurrencies stops. When this happens, the entire cryptocurrency market will plummet to levels seen before Tether injected millions of fake dollars into the cryptocurrency ecosystem dating back to 2016.
Combining the release of a significant amount of BTC into the open market along with the failure of a major liquidity mechanism will result in a major devaluation of the entire cryptocurrency market. We expect to see prices of BTC fall to as low as $1,000 or less after these two events. While the market can continue to go higher before these two events unfold, anyone holding at the time will suffer enormous losses.
Our long term view remains that cryptocurrency and specifically, Bitcoin, can become huge markets. This can only occur after the market matures and isn't driven by rampant manipulation and fraud. For now, hold on to your cash and buy in after the market capitulates.
See you on the other side!
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