Wednesday, August 12, 2020

What you need to know (PART #1: FOMO Psychology) - Bull Run 2020: Exo-Affects

The crypto-market has entered a new bull cycle, and it seems like these bullish events are starting with Decentralized Finance (DeFi) cryptocurrencies.

A little background about myself:

First, let me put this out there. I am no one special. I am not different than anyone here. I'll keep it short. I've been around crypto for a while. I do not day trade. I buy when the market hits the floor, and come back and sell when things start to look suspiciously bullish. It's easier said than done. I know. But honestly, I'm sure many of you can relate. Regardless of fundamentals, when you start to see a certain type of behavior in the market, you get this little spidey sense telling you something. So here is mine.

2020 Bull Event:

Many of you have been noticing the crypto market in an uptrend. Especially with the not-so-new buzz word DeFi (stands for Decentralized Finance). So we are currently witnessing some impressive uptrend price movement with Chainlink ($LINK), and its bullish cycle has started an exo-affect on other coins in the DeFi market. (I'm going to use the word "exo-affect" to describe domino affects of post-price movements).

Now we are noticing other coins such as Maker ($MKR), Compound ($COMP), and Aave ($LEND). Earlier I said I am going to disregard fundamentals slightly. I'll tell you why. Fundamentals are great, and I use them all the time. But with the current market behavior, it is crucial to use psychological market behavior since FOMO is kicking in with only the DeFi related cryptocurrencies.

What do you notice about the recent three that started pumping? Two out of three of the cryptocurrencies literally have two buzz words related to decentralized finance, such as compound and lend. Maker is known, so the crowd knows it already. Easy to distinguish, and the people are just jumping on them. You have sites like coinmarketcap and coingecko making pages dedicated to DeFi to help you narrow it down.

So is it done? Did you miss the bandwagon?

Honestly, no one knows, and I certainly do not know. But Considering some of the coins hitting ATH, and Chainlink has been on a bullish run for a while. I would say there are more opportunities still. If you stick to the psychological behaviors, I feel the price will play a factor. As stupid as this sounds, people will see low prices as "cheap prices", and think it is an opportunity. I know that is entirely dumb, but we saw it happen in the 2017/2018 bull run.

So which DeFi coins people have not noticed yet?

There are honestly several coins that might start pumping when considering the psychological behaviors I mentioned above. FOMOers might see attraction in coins such Terra ($LUNA), Request ($REQ), and 0x ($ZRX). These are just some that fit the "low-price" psychological criteria and haven't reached highs like the others.

But once the FOMOers start noticing, most of have been pumped or people that made money on previous pumps. They will start jumping into the ones that are priced higher such as Augur ($REP).

I am not going to go through all of them. Just check out coingecko or coinmarkets section for DeFi and go through the list.

Yes, I know it all sounds dumb. But when the market is irrational, who do you think it making those irrational decisions?

When you look at things like Ethereum, it started its gradual momentum in an uptrend. Why isn't it pumping hard like the rest? It is more liquid and holds a higher market share than the rest. Those Defi coins are pumping hard because their books are illiquid. But once the stages I mentioned above are complete, trading will flow into Ethereum, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. So the rest will have its moment after. If everything starts flowing like the way I mention in this post, then I might make another post for the next phase of the bubble.

Don't take anything I am saying here seriously, and make sure you do your own damn research before making any investment decisions!


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