This is my opinion and what I'm basing my own personal investing decisions on.
IMO, Bitcoin is very likely to head for the moon in a very short timeframe - the question is when, and companies like Grayscale and Microstrategy are in the control room. It is an usual time in the world where the global economy has taken a big hit due to the pandemic which is ongoing and which will have lingering effects. For the first time in the history of crypto there has been real institutional interest and consolidation of BTC. BTC, as many high profile individuals have stated, could be used as a hedge against inflation but with far greater returns than any other asset available for that purpose as has been made evident from the recent rally. Furthermore, if more institutions were to consider Bitcoin in this way, they could make it happen with more efficacity than they already have.
It bothers me that this crucial point is rarely made: trading in cryptocurrency is relatively unregulated*.* Crypto is not regulated by the SEC. Meaning that big money now being in the crypto market, a space where the price action has largely been moved by retail investors like you and I, are able to manipulate the price.
To me it makes sense that the rise to 40k was just a taste of what's to come in order to peak investor interest and to remind the world of what bitcoin was capable of. If the Dec-Jan rally was just a teaser, then the next logical step is to get as many investors on board before price takes off which means that the price of BTC would either have to stabilize or drop in order for the BTC trusts to consolidate as much of the market as possible before take off. If prices were to drop then whales and institutions (which could be considered the blue whales) are able to accumulate more BTC at a better price - this is what has been confirmed as statistics recently revealed that the amount of BTC in over 1K BTC addresses grew massively.
I felt very strange and suspicious a week ago when all of a sudden all of the news on BTC was bad, fueling massive amounts of FUD and creating a surrounding and compelling effect of negativity. All that would be needed to drive BTC price down for investor consolidation is for media outlets to put a negative spin on very ordinary, innocuous occurrences for a day and the selling of a significant sum of BTC to confirm emotional bias and set things in motion. Coindesk is owned by Grayscale and news today often has an agenda with institutional interest behind the scenes.
The disgusting and culpable reporting of the "double-spend" event has been proven to be exaggerated and very intentionally misnamed, Yellen made non-concrete comments about BTC which have been both good and bad and the seizure of apparently of the "world's largest illegal darkweb marketplace" was self-described by it's organizers as a "small boutique marketplace". Price went down, whale wallets grew. Now after all of that smoke has cleared, we're still where we were before the drop.
Microstrategy has it's investors conference on, I believe on Thursday the 23rd, something to take note of. Big money needs retail investors to raise prices and increase momentum on the market, they also need us to take our money when the time is right. The best period to capitalize on this would be in the short term to coincide with the U.S stimulus package and the general economic outlook. I'm not sure how much more manipulation will occur, but I know that it has been reported already by youtubers in the cryptotrading space so the word is out.
To be clear, I have a very cynical view of BTC's future in the mainstream, IMO it is very likely that big money are merely using BTC as a vehicle for their own gain and have no interest in the purpose of its creation, which is against their interest. Banks and nations are taking the technology of Satoshi's project which has its own vision and are incorporating it to fit their model, notable examples include China and JP Morgan. This is a scenario where the Bitcoin project and HODLr's lose but that will be a while away from now.
In sum I believe the price is going to skyrocket, but only with investor say so. IMO if you are invested in BTC as I am, or are HODLing, keep doing so, if the price drops further, buy more. Big money will set the pace, but it is in their vested interest for price to go up at the time of their choosing, HODLr's and the like are only here for the ride. Again, this is my personal opinion at this point in time which has been come to through a fair amount of research. Any comments and counters, or if I got anything wrong would be greatly appreciated. In this case I would very much like to be wrong.
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