Saturday, May 17, 2025

Am I wrong to think Gold price is a bit unsual right now? perhaps even in a bubble?

as an outsider coming from stocks looking into gold, the way I see it is that current gold prices are highly unusual and way too expensive compared to its historically stable prices. in the past year, gold spiked because of uncertainties around Trump and his war on tariffs. You can directly track the increase in gold price around the time it became a very high likelihood that trump would be president (he has always promised tariffs). Once he became President 2025 this year, that uncertainty became a reality and, imo, he is directly causing this spike in gold with the many chaotic and volatile decisions he has made in just 5 months time. So, in my view, Gold is currently inflated and in a bubble. I dont think gold being over 3k was ever sustainable short term. long term, sure, but this short of time? no, that is way too artificial looking, and if it stays that way or even goes to 4k this year, then to me that is more of a indicator of how fucked of a direction the dollar and the country is going. Gold should NOT rise that much that fast.

Again, this is just my opinion, but in November gold was only 2.6k, and in 6 months it rose by 1k to as high as 3.6k? in another 6 months are we to expect it to keep going up? I dont think thats a good thing if it did, unless you already own gold i guess, and even then, it means the dollar is weakening, so you wouldnt sell your gold anyways. But with it starts retracing back down to 2.6k? I also dont think that is a good thing, because then it would look as volatile and untrustworthy as crypto. I think gold is in a bubble that it should not ever be in, and its ready to pop. Gold should NOT be this volatile, its almost behaving like bitcoin with its high ups and downs. Its suppose to be stable with gradual returns. The chart should reflect this if we are not using bias years from 2020 until now. 2020 was a black swan event, free money, a global pandemic, people flocked to gold for safety as they should have. but go out another 5 years, to 10 years, and you can see how stable gold actually has been since 2012-2019. infact, it had a pretty big pull back in 2013.

All im saying is, this could go to 4k, or it can go back to 2.5k, and gold should NOT make those kinds of moves so QUICKLY. People should not be fomoing into gold unless the world is ending, which it isnt.


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