I have a bad feeling about this, guys.
I’ve been holding a little Bitcoin (just enough to keep me invested yet nervous) and lately I’ve been watching the market with more anxiety than usual. I wanted to share my thoughts and maybe get some feedback from you all.
What I’m seeing is that the Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle is dead. Historically, Bitcoin has followed a pretty reliable “four-year cycle” tied to the halving event. After a halving, supply reduces, hype builds, we get a big bull run, then eventually a crash/crypto winter.
But now, many analysts suggest the cycle is “dead” because the halving supply-shock thesis isn’t as strong anymore, 95% of BTC is already mined, and institutional flows + ETFs + macro factors are playing a bigger role.
So all that is interesting — but here’s why I’m feeling uneasy:
- If the old cycle is indeed dead, then my assumptions (based on “buy near bottom of cycle, hold until peak, then sell”) might be invalid now. What if the peak is ahead or what if the structure changes so much I don’t even recognise the “top”?
- If institutional money and macro factors are more important now, then Bitcoin’s fate might be more tied to things like interest rates, regulation, global liquidity, which feel way more unpredictable than the old semi-routine halving-boom model.
- If the bull run isn’t over — that’s good in one way — but also scary: if I’m thinking it is over and I’m expecting a crash, maybe I’m missing out. And if I’m thinking the peak is now and I sell too early, I might regret it.
- On the flip side: what if the bull run is ending (or at least pausing) and Bitcoin heads into something that looks like a crypto-winter again? Then where do I stand?
So, am I getting nervous for no reason? Or is this truly a turning point for Bitcoin — the end of one era and the start of something new (which could be either good or bad)?
Would love to hear what you folks think — especially anyone who’s been through past cycles, or has changed strategy because of the new dynamics.
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