Looking for feedback on this basket. holding roughly a month.
Positions (filled):
VERA — 4 shares @ ~$43.40 (~$174). Thesis: FDA decision (PDUFA) due July 7 — binary event, could pop on approval or get cut hard on rejection. Plan: trim half if it runs to $48–50 before the date; otherwise hold through the coin flip.
ONDS — 16 shares @ ~$8.26 (~$132). Thesis: beaten-down defense-drone name with real business momentum (big backlog, Palantir tie-in), played as an oversold bounce. No catalyst this month. Stop $7.00; targets $10, then $11.50–12.40.
MARA — 8 shares @ ~$13.77 (~$110). Thesis: high-beta Bitcoin miner, earnings early August. Stop $12.40; targets $16, then $18. Risk: trades ~2–3x Bitcoin, and BTC just fell ~50% from its peak to ~$58.5K (sitting on a key level).
Pending:
ASTS — limit buy 1 share @ $76 (stock ~$86, hasn't filled). Thesis: BlueBird satellite launch first half of August. Deliberately not chasing at $86 after a 21% pop + an analyst downgrade + insider selling.
Cash: ~$184 held back (dry powder for the Fed meeting July 28–29 and a possible ASTS re-entry).
Known risks I'm watching: VERA is a true binary (stops won't protect against an overnight gap). MARA is exposed to a falling Bitcoin. The July 28–29 Fed meeting is leaning hawkish, which hits all the high-beta names. ASTS limit may never fill.
What I'm asking: Is this a reasonable July basket? Where's the weakest link, and would you size or structure it differently?
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