Saturday, March 20, 2021

The absolute inevitability of an upcoming Bear cycle.....

It has rained the first Tuesday or Wednesday of the month for the past 3 months, so It MUST rain on the first Tuesday or Wednesday of next month. It doesn't matter that it isn't the rainy season anymore. It doesn't matter that you moved from Brazil to the Sahara. It will Absolutely, positively rain the first Tuesday (or Wednesday) of next month. And if it doesn't, you will sit inside and look out the window at all the other kids playing outside every day, convinced that it is ABOUT to rain any second now.

This IS as stupid as it sounds. Stop assuming that since there have been reasonably similar cycles in crypto for the past few years that it is a cosmic force of some kind that cannot possibly be avoided or changed. Show me when in the last couple of cycles JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, and all the other good old boys were actually telling BIG clients to buy crypto. Show me when in the last couple of cycles there were fortune 500 companies filling up their ledgers with Bitcoin. Show me another time where the world economy was shut down due to the biggest black swan event since World War 2 and countries started printing fiat currency like 1980s baseball cards. Pick me a time in 2017 when even Grandma and Grandpa could buy various crypto coins just by hitting a button on PayPal and don't have to worry about wallets or vpn's. This is NOT 2017. It will never again be 2017. If you are still insisting that this is "just another cycle" and keep pointing to colored lines on a chart trying to find just the right angles to compare today to 2017, you are the 2021 equivalent of the guy on the corner screaming "Repent, the end is near". It's embarrassing already.


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