Saturday, October 31, 2026

New to crypto — started with a Bitcoin lottery miner and somehow ended up collecting bananas 🍌😂

So I’ve recently started dipping my toes into crypto.
Bought myself a little Bitaxe Bitcoin solo miner, fully aware the chances of finding a block are ridiculous, but I love the idea of having a tiny shot at the jackpot.
Then I stumbled across BANANO tonight, set up my Reddit tipbot account and started messing around with faucets.
I’m now the proud owner of approximately 0.33 BAN. Early retirement is looking promising.
Genuinely enjoying discovering this side of crypto though. It’s quite fun seeing transactions actually arrive in a wallet, even when they’re worth next to nothing.
For those who’ve been around a while, how did you get started with BANANO? Are there any decent community events, giveaways or ways for newcomers to get involved that I should know about?
Cheers, and glad to have found the jungle!


Introducing The Hedgehog Portfolio

Hello folks, I'd like to invite you all to check out and give feedback on a little experiment I'm cooking up. The Hedgehog Portfolio  is a multi-asset, multi-strategy, hedge fund-like portfolio that tries to synthesize some of the most important investment concepts into one DIY setup. It applies trend and risk filters, and shifts into and out of leverage depending on conditions. It's "active" but rules-based and executed by an algorithmic engine. It's called "Hedgehog" because it can "curl" into a defensive posture when conditions call for it. 

In January, I'll start live-tracking the portfolio in a paper trading account and publicly documenting it. This will happen at www.hedgefol.io.

The design aims for a smoother equity curve than a static allocation: lower volatility, shallower drawdowns and higher returns. Whether it actually delivers that is the question the experiment tries to answer.

I'm an investing hobbyist, not a professional, and this is an experiment. It's an attempt at a proof of concept. It's not intended as copy-trade instruction or investment advice. I would not suggest to anyone that they put real money in this (for now).

Please help me out. I need your feedback to iron out any major issues and improve the policy. I'm open to substantial changes. Feedback directly under this post is most appreciated. I've also created a dedicated sub for the portfolio at r/hedgefolio.  Many thanks to those of you who have already commented on some of my earlier posts about aspects of this.

Below is a greatly simplified and reduced version of the full manual. The full manual is available on the website. (This post is an adapted version of the "Start Here" article on the site.)

I mention backtests several times. There will be a whole section on the website documenting the more consequential ones I've done.

1 Introduction

My basic design principles are:

  • Geographic agnosticism. I opt against any sort of geographic preference and bet on the world economy as a whole. For anyone unconvinced of geographic diversification, this article at the "Optimized Portfolio" website gives a good explanation.
  • Diversify across return streams. Trend, value, momentum, gold and equity beta should pay at different times.
  • Manage risk actively. Macro and trend tests control the equity-leverage overlay; a separate filter moves out of equities when crisis looms (or has already started).
  • Be willing to make unconventional choices. There is no standing long-duration fixed income allocation (managed futures can still allocate when trend favors it). On the other hand, in some risk profiles, there is a Bitcoin allocation.
  • Use non-vanilla ETFs when they add genuine value.
  • Use equity leverage only when conditions support it, and only inside one sleeve.
  • Minimize unnecessary trading. Skip small rebalances that cannot make a substantial difference.

There are five sleeves (components) that make up the portfolio. There are six risk profiles with differing allocations to the five sleeves, depending on an investor's risk appetite.

I expect 10–30 trade legs a year, though calm or turbulent years might produce less or more. The published trackers will assume commission-free, tax-exempt trading. Fund expenses, financing and spreads still apply. As of October 2026, trade sizes are impractical below about $80,000 of NAV, and some holdings, CAOS especially, may be too thin above roughly $1.2 million.

The strategy needs US-listed ETFs. There's an appendix with a European version.  

2 Definitions

(Some definitions of terms that may not be obvious.) The full version of this section—posted on the website—is far  more detailed. Same comment applies to the following sections, so I'm not going to repeat this statement.)

  • Sleeve.  A sleeve is one portfolio component with a distinct strategy and job. There are five sleeves in this portfolio. 
  • UERT filter. This is the portfolio's main risk filter. "UERT" stands for Unemployment Rate Trend. It switches on when US unemployment is above its 12-month moving average and MSCI World is below its 10-month average. When the filter is on, it moves the portfolio's equity allocations to the "Risk-Off Basket", see below. When either condition fails, the filter switches off, and funds in the Risk-Off Basket go back into equities.  The UERT filter was originally proposed here. My modification to it is to use the MSCI World Index rather than SPY for the trend component. In backtests I conducted.his worked better for this portfolio than SPY.
  • Risk-off basket. Where the equity money from sleeves B and C goes while UERT is active. Ultra-Conservative and Conservative use only Treasury bills via SGOV. The others add CAOS and, in some cases, HDGE, a tactical short-equity fund meant to profit from a continuing bear market. HDGE is not a primary crash hedge or a cash substitute; preset rules govern its exit.
  • Tail hedge. A position meant to pay off in a sharp fall, usually through options. Carrying it can drag on returns in ordinary times.
  • Leverage overlay. Replaces a sleeve’s holdings with leveraged funds.

3 Portfolio Structure

The portfolio has five sleeves. The table gives base weights for different risk appetites.

Profile A Core B Value C Momentum D Bitcoin trend E Tail hedge
Ultra-Conservative 63 11.5 10.5 0 15
Conservative 57 17.5 15.5 0 10
Moderate 42 22.5 20.5 5 10
Moderate+ 42 22.5 20.5 5 10
Aggressive 37 29 26.5 7.5 0
Ultra-Aggressive 31 30 29 10 0

Table 1. Target weights with leverage off, % of NAV. When leverage switches on, Aggressive moves 7.5 points from D to E; no other profile moves weight between sleeves.

Sleeve A — Managed Futures + Gold

This sleeve is the diversifying counterweight to equities. Bonds usually fill this role; here, I use two managed-futures funds, CTA and DBMF, at 37.5% of the sleeve each, plus gold through GLDM at 25%. Managed futures can be long or short across equities, interest rates, currencies and commodities, so returns do not depend on one asset class. Two funds reduce reliance on one manager.

The static allocation to gold is supposed to dampen inflationary, monetary, fiscal or geopolitical shocks.  

Sleeve B — Global Value Equities with a Value-Trap Filter

This sleeve is one end of an equity factor barbell. It holds four value funds: AVLV and AVUV for the US, AVIV and AVDV for other developed markets. Regional weights follow market capitalisation. Within each region, we overweight small caps, where, according to some published research, the value premium manifests more strongly than in large caps. We leave out emerging markets because at market-cap weights the slice would be too small to matter.

The value-trap filter each year compares a value fund’s return with its broad regional benchmark. If value has lagged, the sleeve holds the broad market for that region instead. The reason is partly psychological: value can underperform for years. The rule gives the holder some relief from sitting through that. Applying momentum to value can switch out of value just before a recovery, but in my backtests, this filter has had a net positive effect.

This entire sleeve moves to the Risk-Off Basket when the UERT risk filter is on.

Sleeve C — Global Equities Momentum (or Leveraged Equities Beta)

The other end of the barbell. It holds SPMO and IDMO, US and ex-US momentum funds, split by market cap. The leverage overlay applies to this sleeve (and this sleeve only). When it is on, the momentum funds give way to a leveraged broad-equity basket. The sleeve keeps its portfolio weight but switches from momentum-factor exposure to leveraged broad-market equity beta.

This entire sleeve, too, moves to the Risk-Off Basket when the UERT risk filter is on.

Sleeve D — Bitcoin Trend-Follow

A small sleeve, excluded from the Ultra-Conservative and Conservative risk profiles, holds Bitcoin only while a slow trend signal is positive. It compares a faster and a slower moving average of the Bitcoin price, checked weekly. When the trend is up it holds IBIT, the iShares Bitcoin Trust. When the trend turns down it holds ISMF, a managed-futures fund, rather than cash.

This is the most speculative sleeve. Moving averages lag turns, Bitcoin can gap outside NYSE trading hours, and, in a worst-case scenario, it could very suddenly lose a great deal of value due to unforeseen events, never to recover. On the other hand, Bitcoin has so far been on a long-term upward trend and there is sufficient narrative to support including it as an alternative asset (says I).

In Aggressive, Sleeve D pays for the tail hedge. When the equity-leverage overlay switches on, 7.5 percentage points of NAV move from D to E as CAOS. When it switches off, D resumes holding IBIT or ISMF according to its current signal. Moderate+ and Ultra-Aggressive keep their Bitcoin trend strategies active alongside leveraged equities.

Sleeve E — Standing and Conditional Tail Hedge

Sleeve E holds the ETF "CAOS" which combines protective puts, return-generating option positions and a cash-like collateral portfolio. It is meant to be cheap to hold and to pay off when equities fall hard and implied volatility spikes. In fact, over its life-time it has roughly kept up with inflation, so it has so far indeed been cheap. Some gains are harvested into T-billsin this portfolio, while depleted protection is replenished. The idea is to bank part of a payoff and keep some participation in a crash that may still be developing.

The standing allocation is 15% for Ultra-Conservative, 10% for Conservative, Moderate and Moderate+, and none for Aggressive and Ultra-Aggressive. Aggressive gets Sleeve E protection only while its leverage overlay is on, through the transfer above. Ultra-Aggressive has no Sleeve E allocation at all, though it can receive CAOS inside the UERT basket. CAOS in the basket is kept separate from Sleeve E. The two share an overall exposure limit; any required trim comes from the basket.

4 Leverage Overlay

This tool replaces the unlevered momentum ETFs in sleeve C with levered, broad-market equity ETFs. The overlay is available to Moderate+, Aggressive and Ultra-Aggressive profiles. Moderate+ and Aggressive replace the momentum funds with a 2x basket covering US, developed and emerging equities. Ultra-Aggressive uses a 3x basket. This gives us the following rough portfolio gross exposure when the overlay is active: 1.20x, 1.25x and 1.6x respectively. So, while Sleeve C’s NAV weight stays the same, leverage substantially increases its equity-market exposure and (generally) its contribution to overall portfolio risk.
 
 A macro and a trend filter generate the two permissions that enable leverage.

  • The macro filter is on when there is persistent monthly evidence of US growth at or above trend and inflation close to target. Inflation can fail by being too high or too low.
  • The trend filter is on when VT trades above its 10-month SMA.

Permission is on when either filter is on, and off only when both are off. In other words, a macro downgrade does not cancel a strong trend, and a broken trend does not cancel a supportive macro reading. The reasoning is that trend responds to persistent price moves while macro data lag, and macro can stay supportive while prices chop. Backtests have confirmed that this configuration works best. Whether that was due to luck or due to a truly causal effect from the combination remains to be seen.

The overlay only applies to Sleeve C. It switches off when UERT takes B and C out of equities; on re-entry, Sleeve C goes straight to the leveraged basket if permission is on. 

5 Global Rebalancing and Action Hierarchy

Section 5 of the manual is the procedural engine that contains the clockwork of schedules, what-ifs, action precedence ladder, and so on. It's four pages of dense text and hard-to-follow details. I'm keeping that private for now. The focus of the public review should be on the investment design.

6 Governance and Periodic Review

The manual sets out how the experiment will be checked. It tracks each profile’s return, volatility and maximum drawdown, and its Sharpe ratio using Treasury bills as the risk-free rate, with the period recorded. A core instrument is reviewed if it is delisted or restructured. A rule change is a documented amendment that applies from that point forward.

Appendix: A European Version

The manual also sketches a European version. Several sleeves have close substitutes, but the mapping is not one-for-one. The funds differ in factor definition, region and currency, and some European vehicles trade thinly. The most gaping hole is the tail hedge. I haven't found any European fund that does CAOS’s job, and a do-it-yourself mix of volatility and cash did not work well in backtests. Where the design needs a tail hedge, cash is the only substitute for now.

The full manual’s appendix has the fund mapping and the changes in detail.