Monday, May 18, 2020

Warning: Blockchain difficulty adjustment affecting price movements

Below are notable difficulty adjustments when hash rate fell and block times become slower for Bitcoin.

  1. 26 Mar 2020 [difficulty adjustment -15.95%, avg block time 11min 54secs]. On the 28th price crashed from $6674 to $6138 ( -8%).
  2. 8 Nov 2019 [difficulty adjustment -7.1%, avg block time 10min 46secs]. On the same day price crashed from $9234 to $8783 ( -4.88%).
  3. The next big adjustment was around Nov to Dec 2018 and there were 3 big adjustments with high block times.
  • 19 Dec 2018 [-9.56%, avg block time 11min 3secs]
  • 3 Dec 2018 [-15.13%, avg block time 11min 47secs]
  • 17 Nov 2018 [-7.39%, avg block time 10min 48secs]
  • There was huge drop off starting on 14th Nov all the way to a bottom on 14-15th Dec ($6351 to $3288 around -48%).

​

Current situation:

We are 1 day 10 hours from the next difficulty adjustment. It was hard for me to find the current average block time, I did find a median block time taken on the 17th and it was 14.8min. If we take from 14 min avg block time and to be adjusted back to 10 min, that will be -28.5% difficulty adjustment. For people who do not understand blockchain, basically with the Bitcoin 3rd halving, mining profitability fell for a lot of miners and they probably turned off their miners therefore the blockchain mining time became considerably slower which is reflected with slow transaction speed and higher fees as seen currently. Bitcoin sellers moving their BTC from wallet to an exchange are faced with slow transaction speed and therefore the sell pressure of BTC fell considerably which will attribute to the current price increase.

My personal opinion will be that there will be an impending big drop off around 10-15% in this week (18-23rd May 2020). I wish all my fellow Bitcoin compatriots safe trading and please be careful of fomo, do not lose your shirt. I am not an expert with such analysis and I do not know if my sources are accurate enough but I hope this sharing helps. Not planning on shorting Bitcoin.

Update 1: As pointed out by u/kairepaire, the current avg block time will be averaged out due to the fast mining before the halving event so the difficulty adjustment will not be that huge (single digit rather than double digit %). However for the consequent next difficulty adjustment, it will reflect the entire time interval period of after the halving which will have the correct slower avg block time. Therefore it is like a race. A race between price hike high enough to attract more miners to reduce avg block times versus the closing window of roughly 2 weeks before the next difficulty adjustment.

References:

Difficulty adjustment dates taken from https://btc.com/stats/diff

Bitcoin graph history for price movement taken from coinmarketcap.

Median confirmation time (block time) taken from https://www.blockchain.com/charts/median-confirmation-time


Week In Review: Market Adds 12% Despite Negative Events (x-post from /r/Bitcoin)

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/gm4zho/week_in_review_market_adds_12_despite_negative/

Trader's guide to Bitcoin Futures by Delta Co founder Jitender Tokas

https://www.delta.exchange/blog/the-traders-guide-to-bitcoin-futures-arbitrage/

How Ransomware Encryption Happens & 4 Methods for Recovery

We know how overwhelming it can feel to be the victim of a ransomware attack and how your business cannot operate due encrypted or locked files. This page delivers insight on why your files were encrypted or locked, and the options you have to decrypt ransomware. As a ransomware recovery service provider, we have helped thousands of clients successfully recover their data and decrypt their data.

Evaluating all options will include analyzing the encrypted files, and the least desirable option to pay the ransom demand if necessary. Our process helps provide critical insight into decrypting ransomware and the available options that clients have. 

By the end of this piece, it is our goal to show you what is involved to successfully recover your files. This guide outlines what steps and research are necessary to decrypt or unlock your files from a ransomware attack.

You’re the victim of a ransomware attack

You arrive to work and start noticing suspicious alerts coming from your servers, and none of the databases are functional. Your co-workers are frantic and cannot access any of their data. You investigate further and find all of the files on your network are renamed and discover ransom notes, and a screen asking you to email someone if you want your data back. You finally realize that you are a victim of a ransomware attack, and all of your files are locked or encrypted.

3 Common Ways Your Files Were Encrypted or Locked

Ransomware succeeds when businesses have poor security hygiene. Organizations that lack policies & procedures around data security will have a higher risk of ransomware attacks. Here are some of the most common ways to fall victim to a ransomware attack:

Open Remote Desktop Protocol Ports (RDP)

Businesses that have improperly configured network security may leave their Remote Desktop Protocol (RDP) ports open. Unknowingly, this is the equivalent of leaving the front door unlocked when you leave your home: it provides an opportunity for cyber attacks to come through with little deterrence. 

Once a hacker is connected to your network, they can install ransomware and additional back doors to access your network at a later date. A large percentage of ransomware attacks still use this method of attack  because so many organizations are not even aware of this security vulnerability.

Phishing Attacks

Ransomware can infiltrate your network by a malicious email campaign known as a phishing attack. Ransomware operators use massive networks of internet-connected devices (botnets) to send phishing emails to unsuspecting victims. These emails intend to trick the receiver into clicking on a malicious attachment or link, which can secretly install the ransomware virus or other malware.

Phishing emails are becoming increasingly difficult to detect as cybercriminals find clever ways to make a malicious email look legitimate. This underscores the importance of security awareness training for everyone in the organization, not just the I.T. department.

Compromised Passwords

The ransomware operators may have used previously compromised passwords from employees at your organization to gain unauthorized access to the networks. This derives from the poor security practices of reusing the same passwords for multiple accounts and authentication processes. 

If your employees have been using old & weak passwords to access your business data, a cyber criminal can use a previously compromised password to initiate the attack. Remember to always to follow good password hygiene. 

The variety of attack vectors highlights the importance of a digital forensics investigation that can help victims understand how the ransomware came onto your computer and what steps you can take to remediate the vulnerability.

4 Options for Ransomware Recovery

In this section, we cover the options to restore files encrypted or locked by ransomware.

1. Recover files with a backup

If your files become encrypted in a ransomware attack, check to see if you have backups to restore and recover (in order). 

  • Off-site or offline backup. Having your backup stored in the cloud or offline would protect the data from the virus since it is not accessible at the time of the attack.
  • Check your Windows Shadow Copies. Even though most ransomware will delete Windows Shadow Copies, you might get lucky and find them intact.
  • Check your on-site backups. We observe that most on-site data is either manually deleted by the attacker, or encrypted by the ransomware virus.

2. Recreate the data

Even though your files are encrypted by ransomware, you might be able to recreate the data from a variety of sources as outlined below:

  • Recreate the data from paper copies. When you have clean systems and physical copies of your data, you can re-enter the data manually from paper copies into your computers and servers.
  • Piece together data from email. Email exchanges are a great way to salvage some of your data from email attachments.
  • Database mining. Some ransomware variants only encrypt a small part of a database or backup files so you can pull out good, usable data. 

3. Breaking the ransomware encryption

The harsh truth is that the majority of ransomware encryption is unbreakable. This impossibility is a tough concept for many of us to accept, given the technological advances of our society.

Does this mean you should skip looking into whether the ransomware encryption can be broken?  This option should always be explored if presented by a ransomware recovery firm, although the final choice is yours to make. We will lay out a real life example at Proven Data below to outline why this was a great decision for a company that was infected with ransomware.

While it tends to be rare, there are poorly constructed ransomware encryptions that have been broken by security researchers. If you can avoid paying a ransom, you should at all costs. 

There can be flaws in the malware or weaknesses in the encryption. Businesses can look at these options, especially if time is on your side. There are also free ransomware decryption resources that provide tools for previously decrypted ransomware variants. A client of ours had hired a ransomware recovery company to recover their files until we discovered at the very last moment through our analysis that the encryption was breakable. With less than 20 minutes to spare, we saved the client out of paying a $450,000 ransom.

Why can’t most ransomware encryption be broken?

Ransomware is a cryptovirus, which means it uses cryptography in combination with malware to lock your files. Modern cryptography uses sophisticated mathematical equations (algorithms) and secret keys to encrypt and decrypt data. If strong encryption is used, it can take thousands, if not millions of years to break the encryption given the strength of today’s computers. 

Encryption is a security tool created with the intent of data protection. It is a defensive tool to provide security, privacy, and authentication. Sadly, ransomware attackers are using it as a weapon against innocent victims. 

How do I know if the encryption can be broken?

You can start off with this free ransomware identification resource to determine the feasibility of decryption. You will need to upload the ransom note and a sample file into the ID-Ransomware website, and it will tell you if there is a free decrypter or if it is an unknown ransomware variant. Please note that the tool is not always 100% accurate. If the variant is still under analysis, you will need a malware or encryption analyst to determine whether or not there is a possibility for decryption. 

Encryption is designed to be unbreakable, which is why security researchers can’t simply make a tool for ransomware decryption. These unbreakable encryptions protect our bank accounts, trade secrets, government data, and mobile communications, among other things. It would be a significant security concern if there were a master decryption tool that could break encryption algorithms.

4. Paying the ransom to decrypt ransomware files

If the encryption is too strong, the only way to obtain the decryption key for your files is to pay the ransom. Many ransomware victims don’t have time on their side because they are facing significant business disruption. Each minute that passes could be a lost client, or worse for a medical organization.

Here is a list of the most prevalent ransomware variants that are known to be “cryptographically secure,” which means that Proven Data or the security community has confirmed the encryption is unbreakable:

  • Sodinokibi
  • Lockcrypt 2.0
  • Mamba
  • Dharma2
  • Phobos
  • Netwalker/Mailto
  • Matrix
  • Maze
  • Cryptomix Revenge
  • Globeimposter
  • NM4
  • Rapid
  • Nozelesn
  • ACCDFISA
  • Mr. Dec
  • STOP
  • Major
  • Snatch

I don’t want to pay the hackers ransom.

Businesses and individuals have the option of choosing not to pay the ransom in a ransomware attack to regain access to their files. For personal, political, or moral reasons, there has been resentment of the ransomware economy, and victims do not have to engage in extortion. If paying the ransom is the only option, you should know what to expect before considering moving forward.

How a ransomware recovery specialist can help

If you do decide to use a ransomware recovery company and if there is one thing you get out of this article, it is this: You should always question how a ransomware recovery company is recovering your data. If you are unsure, asking the right questions will ensure a transparent experience: 

  • How are you recovering my locked / encrypted data?
  • How much will ransomware recovery cost?
  • Do you have experience with this variant?

A ransomware recovery specialist can analyze your current situation and determine what options are available to you at the time of the inquiry. A competent and experienced ransomware recovery company should be able to provide the following: 

  • Understanding the ransomware variant and what to expect
  • Malware analysis to determine if the encryption can be broken
  • Consultation on the attack vector which caused the attack and preventative methods
  • Compliance program that screens the bitcoin wallet for links to sanctioned entities
  • Digital currency readily available to facilitate the ransom payment expeditiously 
  • Modification of non-functioning or poorly-functioning decryption programs that are causing delays in decrypting your files
  • Repairing damaged databases or files

Understanding how your files were affected by ransomware in the first place will provide you with the insight needed to prevent another attack. Whether you choose Proven Data or another company to decrypt your ransomware files, it’s important to know what unknowns there may be out there.

Our threat intelligence that we’ve gathered from the thousands of previous cases enable you to make informed decisions in helping restore your data after a ransomware attack. If you require a company with such experience, we’re standing by to assist 24/7.



Genius? These might be the most undervalued tokens! l'appel du vide

FTM TKN VXV MET AGI MITx AXPR

These projects are positively interesting, personally! “It might be worth looking into them” lolol ether tokens with a usecase are fascinating if I do say so mySelf You check out supply and even release schedules if you want. . less interested in prices ..

FTM consider it being the first project to stake if you have yet to do that! I like that FTM can be acquired as an ERC-20 token, to be swapped at will for BEP-2 tokens or its value on its mainnet. That’s something that seems very undervalued about tokens as a complementary layer - record for choice. Anyway, their goal is consensus as a service, which is intriguing. Their mobile app wallet one stakes with is smooth.

TKN is neat as it is part of a card system that lets you spend gains from ether tokens. Its token is towards a reserve pool of the fee charged for spending other tokens. Their partnership with Visa seems legit yet that’s been flaunted before haha Their website is intense. Check that out.

VXV PubMed.gov, the U.S National Library of Medicine and the Department of Energy are listed on its homepage, as is Amazon — politics of which we can discuss in the comments? Right now they feature a Covid-19 matrix where one can test variables for correlation towards treatment! Their token is for smart baskets - “Detecting hidden relationships between equities, entities and global events based on sympathetic, symbiotic, parasitic or latent entanglement can result in unique opportunities connected to 'information arbitrage'.”

MET Well as any musician ought suggest, metronomes are useful, even if seemingly unforgiving! This token is for autonomy, co-founded by chief designer Jeff Garzik, one of the main contributors to the Bitcoin project, who I like for what does seem to be pragmatism regarding the BTC/BCH fork.

AGI SingularityNet, brainchild of Ben Goertzel, AI researcher. Listen to him here :

https://www.ft.com/content/fe1e2fa5-ece8-44b6-937f-9dce382f1b24

This token is for the Dapp in Beta. Explore! powered by open collaboration:

https://beta.singularitynet.io/?fbclid=IwAR26cCOTCbR2-rw5XwjrgClaMpjXm8PvN9yiBolBRVK23AiiYzUEeH3ALAQ

The largest open AI marketplace in the world.

MITx This team seems to provide agnostic service for blockchains. Its token is not forced so if successful would be, more than any other, due to its community.

AXPR Roger Ver is an advisor for this one! The current token was swapped from AXP. aXpire products require this token and then a percentage of each transaction is burned, so the purpose of this token is natural deflation I guess

Runnersup

CXO Tokens suggest that redundancy can be aggressive. Using bill of ladings on a blockchain ensures transporters are paid quicker and more reliably. This freight project in particular is supported by real-world 3PL (third-party logistics) companies. Both led by individuals from The University of Ljubljana and historically invested in by Goldman Sachs.

WHEN This token is for connecting via scheduled video calls with an “expert.“

0XBTC For the security of Bitcoin and interoperability of ether tokens!

Crossposting from r/CryptoMoonShots for visibility and a new addition to the collection, for if y’all ask (hint: it’s RING)


Major event alert!

https://preview.redd.it/rbaqpcwgqiz41.png?width=2400&format=png&auto=webp&s=910d840459574a46bfecec03456303dfde91b654

This time it's Crypto Asia Summit – a virtual event that will bring together over 5000 guests and 50+ industry leaders, experts and investors. The key topics include project analysis, DeFi, and crypto opportunities in Asia.

Our CEO Max Krupyshev is among the speakers. He will be in great company: the speaker list also includes Changpeng Zhao from Binance, Roger Ver from bitcoin.com and famous trader Tone Vays.

To listen to Max’s talk about crypto payments as a cure for the COVID-19, tune in on May 20 between 4pm and 5pm (GMT +9). The best part is that you can attend for free! The number of free spots is limited, so we advise you to register right now at https://bit.ly/3dRhSY4.

See you soon at Crypto Asia!


[uncensored-r/BitcoinMarkets] [Daily Discussion] Monday, May 18, 2020

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