https://gemm.ai/bitcoin-and-crypto-face-these-key-events-in-the-week-ahead/
Monday, April 17, 2023
So…. How much of this email is bs?
My dad just received this email and forwarded it to me to get my perspective, I told him it’s fine to just delete it but that I’d double check on here and see what you guys think.
Greetings! I have to share bad news with you. Approximately a few months ago, I gained access to your devices, which you use for internet browsing. After that, I have started tracking your internet activities. Here is the sequence of events:
Some time ago, I purchased access to email accounts from hackers (nowadays, it is quite simple to buy it online). I have easily managed to log in to your email account @hotmail.com. One week later, I have already installed the Cobalt Strike "Beacon" on the Operating Systems of all the devices you use to access your email. It was not hard at all (since you were following the links from your inbox emails). All ingenious is simple. :). This software provides me with access to all your devices controllers (e.g., your microphone, video camera, and keyboard). I have downloaded all your information, data, photos, videos, documents, files, web browsing history to my servers. I have access to all your messengers, social networks, emails, chat history, and contacts list. My virus continuously refreshes the signatures (it is driver-based) and hence remains invisible for antivirus software. Likewise, I guess by now you understand why I have stayed undetected until this letter. While gathering information about you, i have discovered that you are a big fan of adult websites. You love visiting porn websites and watching exciting videos while enduring an enormous amount of pleasure. Well, i have managed to record a number of your dirty scenes and montaged a few videos, which show how you masturbate and reach orgasms. If you have doubts, I can make a few clicks of my mouse, and all your videos will be shared with your friends, colleagues, and relatives. Considering the specificity of the videos you like to watch (you perfectly know what I mean), it will cause a real catastrophe for you.
I also have no issue at all with making them available for public access (leaked and exposed all data). General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR): Under the rules of the law, you face a heavy fine or arrest. I guess you don't want that to happen. Let's settle it this way:
You transfer 1.5 Bitcoin to me and once the transfer is received, I will delete all this dirty stuff right away. After that, we will forget about each other. I also promise to deactivate and delete all the harmful software from your devices. Trust me. I keep my word. That is a fair deal, and the price is relatively low, considering that I have been checking out your profile and traffic for some time by now. If you don't know how to purchase and transfer Bitcoin - you can use any modern search engine. You need to send that amount here Bitcoin wallet: bc1q34yt5zahgv5vxlg9l5vzxnte5aruvafdrengzm (The price is not negotiable). You have 5 days in order to make the payment from the moment you opened this email. Do not try to find and destroy my virus! (All your data is already uploaded to a remote server). Do not try to contact me. Various security services will not help you; formatting a disk or destroying a device will not help either, since your data is already on a remote server. This is an APT Hacking Group. Don't be mad at me, everyone has their own work. I will monitor your every move until I get paid. If you keep your end of the agreement, you won't hear from me ever again. Everything will be done fairly! One more thing. Don't get caught in similar kinds of situations anymore in the future! My advice: keep changing all your passwords frequently.
Sunday, April 16, 2023
Cardano Daily Discussion - April 17, 2023
Hello everyone,
Welcome to the Cardano Daily Discussion!
The standard sub rules apply here (see sidebar), with the exception that price discussion is allowed in this thread, though we encourage you to try not to make this the focus and talk about the project itself. Please ask questions, help others and be civil - be sure to get involved in Project Catalyst too!
If you're new, please make sure you're read through the newbies guide and share it with others (use the ?newbies comment command to reference it).
⚠️ Scam Warning ⚠️
Please read the Cybersecurity guidelines for Cardano Users.
There are ongoing giveaway scams on youtube and many scammers lurking in Cardano's social channels impersonating ambassadors/moderators/official staff contacting users via direct messages.
For example, searching 'cardano' on youtube and sorting by most recent upload date shows several giveaway scams running (all videos in screenshot are scams):
Ongoing 'giveaway' scams on Youtube
The youtube scams are automated; use stolen footage usually of Charles Hoskinson and are restreamed so to appear to be 'live'; appear to have many watchers (which are bots); use bought hacked channels and are edited to appear like official channels.
See this post for more examples of what they look like
Do not be fooled!
To be clear:
- ⚠️ There is no such thing as a Cardano giveaway
- ⚠️ Never share your seed phrase with ANYONE
- ⚠️ Never send ADA to someone promising to send you more ADA back
- ⚠️ You will never be contacted by ambassadors/moderators/staff
Please report scams on the Cardano Fraud Detection Bureau.
⚠️ Scam Warning ⚠️
Midnight Subreddit
In anticipation of Input Output's new data protection blockchain 'Midnight', I've managed to acquire r/Midnight through some negotiation and repurpose it for the Cardano Community (the sub was created for a card game back in 2011 but was mostly unused).
I decided to do this as I thought the project will eventually need a home on reddit and best to setup now before any scammers do. Obviously there's not much to post about on there right now as it's early days as the project is yet to be released, but if you'd like to be kept up to date on the project please feel free to join the new subreddit if the project interests you and I'll be sure to post updates as and when they become available.
Right now the sub is mostly a carbon copy of r/cardano, I've copied most of the automod and rules over, so certain aspects may seem a little incongruent atm, but I'll tailor and tweak the sub as we go. Feel free to send me or post any input if you want stuff to change.
Cheers all
Why the price of NEO goes higher from here
In November 2022, I made a prediction that the current downcycle in the price of NEO would end at the end of the year. The price has since more than doubled during that time (~$6 to $~13).
From here, the price of NEO should continue to rise. If you'd like to see how much further it may rise, feel free to check out this dashboard we created. How it works is like this:
1) We identified a 2-year seasonal cycle in the price of NEO that has taken place since 2017. Seasonality means that the price rises and/or falls during certain times of a period, similar to how retail sales tend to rise during the Christmas holidays but fall therefater. While NEO does in fact have an annual cycle, the 2-year cycle is even stronger.
2) Knowing seasonality without understanding the overall trend can be death to your forecast.
In this case, we identified a few baskets of assets that are highly correlated to the price of NEO (i.e. ~80%). In one such basket, which is composed of crude oil, Bitcoin, and MCHI, we can identify that the overall trend is rising because of the persistent and continued rise in the prices of oil and Bitcoin and the stability in the price of MCHI.
Combining these two factors gives us a strong indication where the price of NEO should go by the end of the month. While this model is not perfect, it is likely to be correct when both the seasonal cycle holds true and aligns with the overall trend.
This model could always be improved, so we welcome any constructive feedback, criticism, etc. Thanks for reading.
Note: This post is not meant to be investment advice, nor is it meant to spur speculation in the price of NEO. As a part-time developer on the NEO ecosystem, my interest lies more in building apps that will combine practical, real-world usage with the NEO blockchain. In particular, I am interested to see how data science can be used to make forecasts in the price of almost anything, including the price NEO. Exogeneous events, such as real-world adoption of the NEO blockchain, are of secondary consideration in this model.
2nd Note: As the overall algorithm is still being tweaked, the price forecasted by the dashboard may likely overstate (or understate) what actually transpires.
Censoring Bitcoin discussed by former director of cybersecurity for the White House
https://i.redd.it/kxs8ewx1n9ua1.jpg
The Federal Reserves Internal Turmoil, Recent Economic Reports and How To Profit - The Case for NUGT, UGL, AGQ, and Crypto
Hey everybody, my name’s Christian.
Today I wanted to talk about some of the big news that's come out in the past few weeks. Specifically, the recent employment report on April 7th, the CPI data, the Release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes from March 21 and 22nd on April 12, the earnings report from major US banks on 4/14, and how all of this may affect the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest levels at their next meeting on May 3rd. Finally, I want to discuss what we, as investors, can do to profit from this.
Employment Report
On April 7th, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its Employment Situation Summary for the past month, which generally contained good news, but also did create some doubts (1). The main points from the report were that in the past month, 236,000 new jobs were added, which is historically strong but represents the smallest monthly gain in the past two years. The most significant increase was in the sectors of restaurants, bars, and hospitals, with jobs being lost in construction, manufacturing, and retail. Unemployment dropped to 3.5%, while hourly wages increased 4.2% year over year, representing the most minor level of growth since mid-2021, when inflation was surging.
The results from this release indicate uncertainty in the state of the economy, which may impact the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates at its May 3rd meeting. Regarding the total job numbers and unemployment, the steady hiring growth indicates that the job market and economy continue to grow as new employees are added. This increase in employment may suggest to the Federal Reserve that it’s necessary to raise interest rates to slow the economy and bring inflation down to its 2% target. Conversely, the slower wage gains indicate a slowing or stagnating economy as employers are less desperate to retain and gain employees. This metric may suggest that the Fed’s interest decisions are having the desired effect of slowing the market.
Overall, the report suggests a resilient labor market that is less desperate to hire and retain employees as indicated by wage stagnation but is still clearly growing, implying to the Fed that an interest increase is necessary. This is reflected in the CME Fed Watch Tool (2), which reflected a 49% chance the Fed would increase rates the day before the release on 4/6, but grew to a 72% chance of increased rates the following Monday, 4/10. Thus the Employment report suggests future rate hikes.
Consumer Price Index
Another major release in the past week has the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core CPI data posted on April 12th (3). The CPI tracks the changes in prices paid by consumers for goods and services, while the Core CPI aims to do the same but does not include the volatile price of food and fuel prices in its calculations and is consequently considered a more accurate measure of inflation. Before the release, it was expected that the CPI would show a 5.6% year over year, while the actual value was 5%, beating expectations and down from 6% in February and marking the slowest increase in CPI value since May 2021. The Core CPI was expected to be measured at 5.6%, a slight uptick from 5.5% in February and the first acceleration in Core CPI since September 2022.
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine last year, the price of food and fuel, the key difference between the CPI and Core CPI, has increased dramatically. However, food and fuel prices have dropped in the past few weeks and months, as evidenced by the AAA gas price tracker (4). This drop in food and fuel prices explains why the CPI artificially fell below expectations while the Core CPI didn’t. Additionally, the report demonstrates a significant increase in inflation in service costs, such as rent, hotel rooms, manicures, insurance, and child care. Thus, the fact that fuel and food prices dropped while other metrics increased further explains why the CPI fell month over month while the Core CPI increased month over month. These results demonstrate to the Federal Reserve that inflation has not been tamed and may suggest that further interest hikes may be necessary.
Federal Reserve 3/21-22 Meeting Minutes
The Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes for the March 21st and 22nd meetings were also released on April 12th (5,6). The primary sentiment from the meeting was that the Federal Reserve sees a mild recession starting later this year, as likely, with an economic recovery over the subsequent two years. This was primarily due to the concern surrounding the banking sector, caused by the stress of banks increasing lending standards and tightening credit requirements, which may cause the economy to slow. In conjunction with the slow increase in CPI over the past few months, the Federal Reserve is concerned that a mild recession is highly likely.
However, there was disagreement among the member of the board on whether a rate hike increase is necessary or beneficial to the economy's long-term health.
John Williams, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said the Fed had more work to do and suggested a 0.25 rate increase was a “reasonable starting place.” Austan Goolsbee, the president of the Feder Reserve Bank of Chicago, is concerned about the recent bank failures, suggesting we need to be cautious, and gather more data before raising interest rates too quickly. Additionally, Mary Daly, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Franciso, said that there are good reasons both to keep rates as they are but also to increase them. These quotes demonstrate great uncertainty in the Federal Reserve regarding its next steps.
Additionally, the Federal Reserve isn’t the only central bank with confusion about whether raising interest rates is the right course of action. The Reserve Bank of Australia decided to halt its rate increase at 3.6% after reports of falling inflation in Australia in early April. Conversely, New Zealand is still going full speed ahead with its interest rate hikes, raising rates by 0.5% on April 5th. This disagreement on whether or not to raise interest rates, both in the US and internationally, signals great uncertainty surrounding global and domestic financial and economic health.
Following the CPI and Fed Reserve Minutes reports on 4/12, there was not a massive effect on the stock market. Stocks and bonds showed little change following the release of the CPI, indicating investors found the results of the CPI to be in line with expectations and the current outlook. Additionally, the CME Fed watch tool lowered the probability of a Federal interest increase from 73% to 67%.
Major Bank Earnings on 4/14
The last significant event I want to discuss today is the earnings reports from a few major US banks released on April 14th. Since before the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, banks have been tightening their lending practices, starting in January. Since January, economic conditions have only worsened, especially concerning the collapse of SVB and other banks, such that these earnings reports were highly anticipated and likely to affect the Fed’s decision regarding interest rates. Specifically, earnings may either create confidence or fear in investors and the Fed, who will adjust their investing strategies and monetary policies accordingly.
The major banks of JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo were the primary focus of the 4/14 earnings, in which they beat expectations and consequently saw upticks in stock price. JP Morgan Chase was up 7.55%, Citigroup climbed 4.8%, and Wells Fargo traded sideways after rallying earlier in the day. Much of the increased earnings in these banks can be traced back to rising interest rates, as increased reserve rates lead to higher returns for banks through their loans, at the comparatively small cut to profitability by paying out depositor interest.
However, it was not all good news for banks regarding the inflow and outflow of their deposits and the implication for the Federal Reserve. JP Morgan Chase did see a 2% increase in total deposits in Q1, but they fell behind 2022 Q1 by 3%. This means that while they saw an increase in deposits, the growth rate is slowing. Following the earning report from the major banks, the CME Federal Reserve watch tool projected a 78% chance of increasing interest rates at the next meeting from 67% the day before earnings to 78% after earnings were released. Ultimately, while the banks reported good profits, the details of the release have not been positive signs for the Federal Reserve to keep rates where they are.
Actionable Advice
*** I am not a CFA, nor is this content aimed to be financial advice; it simply serves to provide my opinions on market conditions, opportunities, and strategies that interest me. You should do your own research before making any investment decisions.***
Taking the combined results of the employment report, the CPI and Core CPI report, the Federal Reserves Meeting Minutes, and the bank’s earning reports, what can you do with this information to potentially make money?
The major takeaway from these events is that there is a high degree of uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain or raise interest rates and the general health of the US economy. The jobs report with high employment numbers contradicts the low rate of wage increases. The CPI increased a smaller amount than expected, but the Core CPI suggests inflation is still very present and growing monthly. The Federal Reserve has internal disagreements on whether to increase or keep rates, as demonstrated by statements from bank presidents and is consistent with the indecision seen in other national central banks. This all culminates with large bank earnings that surpassed expectations, but are still concerning, resulting in a predicted 80% chance of increased interest rates.
In times of financial uncertainty, the type of assets that increase in price are the ones that represent a “safe” and “stable” store of value. The two major sectors in which I believe the current uncertainty benefits are precious metals and cryptocurrencies. Regarding precious metals, the stock tickers I suggest looking into are NUGT, UGL, and AGQ.
NUGT is a 2x leveraged ETF tracking the price of gold-producing companies. Over the past month, NUGT has increased by 30% and over 106% in the past six months. As uncertainty continues and possibly grows, companies that produce gold, the standard for safe storage of wealth, will grow in value, resulting in increased stock prices.
UGL is a 2x leveraged ETF that tracks the price of gold itself. Over the past month, UGL has increased by around 2% and 41% in the past six months. For the same reasons as NUGT, UGL will likely continue to grow in price as uncertainty continues, especially if interest rates are raised at the next Federal Reserve meeting.
AGQ is a 2x leveraged ETF that tracks the price of silver. Over the past month, AGQ has increased by 27% and 77% in the past six months. Like gold, silver is a standard value storage and benefits from increased market uncertainty. Additionally, silver is a common component in electric products, especially electric cars, and solar panels. If you believe in the future of EVs and solar technology and that financial uncertainty will continue, AGQ may be a good option for you.
If gold and silver are the standard “boomer” choices for securing value and hedging against inflation, cryptocurrency is their Gen-Z relative. For the same reasons as gold and silver have and may continue to increase in price, cryptocurrency, as a decentralized hold of value, benefits from increased market uncertainty, with the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum clearly demonstrating its value to investors.
Bitcoin has increased in value by 22% in the past month and nearly 60% in the past six months.
Ethereum has increased by 27% in the past month and is up over 63% in the past six months.
All of these assets are posed to continue to increase in value if uncertainty in the market and with the Financial Reserve continues, and will significantly benefit from an increase in interest rates from the Fed, of which there is an 83% chance on the day of posting. Of course, buying leveraged ETFs, as I’ve highlighted, is risky and should only be done by investors who understand the risks associated with the asset and have done their own research. But while not financial advice, all these assets have opportunities to continue to rise in price due to the geopolitical and macroeconomic events at play.
That's all I have for today. I hope this was useful to you, and please let me know what you think about these ideas.
Thanks for reading!
References
- https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
- https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
- https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
- https://gasprices.aaa.com/
- https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20230322a1.pdf
- https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20230322.pdf
Protect Your Seed Phrase (10 Tips to Secure your Crypto)
1) Never share the words with anyone
This is the only thing you need to do to be safe.
People complain about “getting hacked” daily but most of these stories end up having the same root cause: the person gave their seed phrase to someone.
They weren’t a victim of a hack… They fell for a scam.
Again, ownership of the private keys means ownership of the address they control.
When you share them with someone, you’re basically sharing the ownership.
2) Don’t save your seed phrase online
When you have your words in your mailbox’s Drafts folder or you’ve sent them to yourself on social media, you’ve technically shared them with the world.
They’re potentially exposed to employees of the services you’re using, to platforms with which you interact, or any user of a device you’re logged or have been logged into, etc.
The solution is simple: use pen and paper.
3) Keep the paper safe and hidden
Have your 12-24 words written clearly on a piece of paper and hide it from the world.
Don’t only think about burglars, but also people you live with – even without bad intentions, they can leak it or lose it due to negligence.
The stories about suckers searching dumpsters for hard-disks are mainstream nowadays… All of that can be avoided if you have this piece of paper..
And don’t use bank deposit boxes to store your whole seed phrase, as it may defy the whole concept of “not your keys, not your coins”.
4) Never take a picture of your seed phrase
A picture on your phone is equally (or even more) vulnerable like the examples from point 2.
Think about every application that has permissions to access your media files, an unintentional share, losing your phone… I can go on and on!
Again, all of this can be avoided by not having a picture. And if you’re worried about your house collapsing, keep reading:
5) Have a duplicate
It’s always the case that something can happen to a piece of paper. Someone can throw it away unknowingly, it can be destroyed during unfortunate events, etc.
That’s why I think it’s a good idea to have a copy of your seed phrase stored elsewhere. However, there’s no one-size-fits-all solution, as it depends on your personal circumstances.
6) Don’t get too creative
You can also get a bit creative in regards to how you write down the words. The goal would be to make the seed unusable for anyone that might get a hold of your precious piece of paper.
You might have ideas like tampering some words or changing their order using an algorithm you’d remember etc.
Be careful with this.
If you’re not using your seed phrase often (you won’t), there’s a high probability that you will be the one that ends up with an unusable seed phrase.
You don’t want an over-engineered solution to stop you from accessing your funds. If you’d rely on memory, there’s a better approach:
7) Remember your seed phrase
It’s as simple as it gets: remember your 24 words.
All of a sudden, your assets are available to you wherever you are.
You find yourself on the other side of the world and you want to pay with Bitcoin? It’s readily available to you! You find yourself as a war refugee and they confiscate everything you own on the border? Initialize your wallet once you’re free. This way of storing your seed is also called a “brainwallet“.
Doomsday scenarios aside, I’d put remembering the seed phrase as the top tip. But similar to the previous point – due to lack of usage, your memory of it can fade away. And if you only miss one word, that means you’re not controlling the private key you previously had.
8) Never expose your words to the internet
Usually, seed phrases are generated by a certain wallet provider during the setup.
But the most secure seed phrases are those that have never been exposed to the internet.
You can achieve this by using something called a hardware wallet. This is an offline device that controls your private keys, which you can use to confirm transactions.
I wrote a detailed comparison between hardware and software wallets here:
9) Engrave your seed phrase into steel
Durability is where metal storage shines. This relates to protection against fire, water, and other disasters.
Keep in mind, there are already solutions on the market that make engraving words into metal relatively easy. You won’t have to do everything yourself.
10) Use a passphrase (25th word)
A passphrase is an extra word you can use on top of your 24 words.
This will allow you to control a completely new set of addresses.
Having a 25th word is crucial, because you can choose the word yourself, it’s easy to remember, and adds extra security in case someone gets access to your 24-word seed phrase.
A common tactic you can use to assure safety is to have a small amount of crypto in the wallet controlled by your seed phrase. But the majority of your portfolio will be stored behind the wallets controlled by the 25 words.
This way, even if you find yourself in a situation where you are forced to give out your seed phrase, you can comply and still keep custody of your actual portfolio.
TLDR: See the subheaders and use common sense
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