Friday, April 11, 2025

Could MOASS Trigger a Global Economic Reset?

Hi apes,

Over the past few weeks, we’ve seen a noticeable shift. Silence turning into signals. Posts, tweets, and screenshots from names we haven’t heard from in years.

Ryan Cohen. Larry Cheng. DFV.

The community is awake again. The energy is back. But maybe this moment is bigger than we think.

Let’s say MOASS happens. Not just a short squeeze — but a full-blown market event:

Exposed shorts. Synthetic shares. Failed settlements. Margin calls. The kind of thing that makes front pages and history books.

What happens when a rigged system breaks wide open — and the world is forced to look?

System Failure = Opportunity for Change

For years, the public has suspected that something was deeply wrong with the markets: • Naked shorting • Derivative manipulation • Regulatory failure • Media spin

If MOASS hits and the truth surfaces, that suspicion becomes confirmation.

This isn’t just a market event. It’s a moment to ask:

How do we build a system that works for everyone, not just those at the top?

Connect the Dots: RC, Cheng, DFV • Ryan Cohen has stayed mostly silent, except for some gefilte fish 😉— but his actions speak. GameStop is strengthening. Bitcoin on the balance sheet. DRS still climbing. • Larry Cheng recently posted a quote about empires collapsing — and people being ready to rebuild something better in the aftermath. • DeepFuckingValue? The Batsignal is on!

They aren’t telling us exactly what’s coming. But they are reminding us to pay attention.

And when systems shake, opportunists appear. One particularly loud, orange one might already be preparing to capitalize on the chaos — not necessarily to fix what’s broken, but to reshape it in his image.

What Comes After the Squeeze?

If MOASS really breaks the illusion: • Confidence in legacy institutions could collapse • Global capital might seek transparency and stability • Real production could become more valuable than financial engineering • And foreign industries might even be invited to invest in a “new” America — restructured, rebranded, and post-crash

What starts as a financial correction could become an economic re-alignment.

TL;DR • MOASS could reveal the true scale of Wall Street corruption • RC, Cheng, and DFV are all active again — and timing matters • The fallout may lead to a restructuring of markets, trade, and policy • Even certain orange-colored public figures might use the chaos to reshape the system in their own way

GameStop might not just break the system. It might help start a better one.

What do you think? Is this part of the bigger plan or just an opportunity waiting to be taken?

Buckle up!


Strategize for next week: situation speculation, gold, silver, plat, spy, BA, FXI and more

First of all, let us agree there are disagreements. Some Americans believe that China will implode in the next several months under tariff. Some Chinese believe that a U.S. civil war is imminent due to high inflation. I am not interested in debating with extremists, but you are welcome to comment below.

Let us revisit what happened this week. This is my understanding:

  1. President Trump implemented global tariff, including up to 145% tariff on China. The market wasn't fully anticipating it, so the stock market crashed
  2. The risk spread to the bond market, and the basis trade began to unravel. 10y and 30y treasury yield went up 75 to 100 bps in days, which means the bondholder of 30y lost 11%. Trump paused the tariff, and market went up wildly
  3. Japan hedge fund exploded and saved the market on Wednesday. Nevertheless, there is still around $1T-2T basis trade to unwind. 10y is still 4.5% upon closing
  4. The fickle policy led to a certain degree of de-dollarization. Over the last 24 hours, USD began to depreciate again all currencies, and drove gold and silver price up
  5. Stock market bet that Fed must intervene by buying treasury bonds or cut down interest rate, so SPY went up 1.8% today
  6. Trump must beat rate down to around 3% before refinancing $6-7T in late June
  7. My SPY put expiring today is a 100% loss. lol

There are lot of binary events to happen, such as:

  • Whether Trump will pause China tariff. This is a low possibility event, but some people suspect this may happen, because the stock market is too resilient today. If this happens, all market goes up dramatically, gold and silver will go down
  • Whether Fed will cut interest rate. This is a mid-possibility event. The basis trade and carry trade are unwinding at the same time, and we may explode Sunday night. If Fed cut interest rates, all market goes up dramatically. Inflation may go out of control in the next several months, but who cares about that far out...
  • Whether Trump will reach deal with any country that jointly imposes tariff on China. This is a low possibility event. Since Trump changes decisions hourly (he threatened to put more tariff on Mexico due to some water rights), I doubt whether any country will trust him that much. In addition, China may retaliate if another country, such as Japan, decides to impose tariff on China. Nevertheless, if that happens, U.S. stock goes up, China stock goes down. Not sure about gold or silver

My speculations are:

  1. Nothing will happen quickly next week and we will still be living in this uncertain limbo. Therefore, keeping a position on gold and silver is necessary, if USD's global reserve status is weakened. USD will still be the primary reserve, since no other country have both the military power and can owe that much money.
  2. Inspired by gold and silver, I decide to get others too. PPLT is platinum and PALL is palladium. When China keeps selling treasury, it surely won't hold USD cash and wait for it to depreciate. Maybe we have an outsized chance on plat and palladium
  3. Bitcoin may have a good opportunity, but that is a separate issue. Also, I like GNS way more
  4. Put BA and Call BYD. EU is negotiating with China now to remove EV barrier. I can only speculate one reason: EU wants to sell airbus aircrafts to China in exchange of opening EV barriers. This is bad for BA and good for BYD. I don't want to be suicided by BA, so I will stop here
  5. Keep FXI calls. Trump will continue to find weapons to threaten China, and mentioned he may delist China Stocks. That is probably unlikely, but you don't know Trump - can you imagine a U.S. president issued a memecoin before inauguration? Nevertheless, Aug 2025 FXI calls have IV of 32% to 35%, which seems insanely low. You can also check MCHI, TCHI, KWEB, KSTR, and pick whatever flavor you like
  6. Continue holding coal. In two years, China navy will outweigh U.S. navy, and U.S. navy doesn't even have repair capabilities now. Therefore Trump must rebuild steelmaking and shipbuilding, which requires coal. I also lost big on NUE calls because the market doesn't believe U.S. steelmakers have a chance - they may have a point.
  7. I kept a small put position in case of a black Monday.

What did I miss? what other opportunities are there?


Hydranet - Weekly DEV Update #154

Hydranet - Weekly DEV Update #154

Hydranet HDN - Weekly DEV Update #154

X/Twitter: https://x.com/TheHydranet/status/1910611073239076976

Web DEX Frontend:
- Minor bugs from alpha tests have been fixed
- Orderbook issues have been identified and are being tackled
- Performance issues are being engaged and debugged

Web DEX Backend
- Faucet has been improved and updated
- #Bitcoin transaction synchronisation time has been further improved
- Rental Manager received an update to show available rental capacity
- All events will now be emitted by unified subscriptions, improving overall performance
- WebWallet was bumped to BDK wallet version 1.2

HDN Token Swap
DAO vote #34 (Token Contract Update) has passed with 21.5M votes in favor and 0 against. Therefore our DEVS took immediate action and initiated the contract update process.
- Snapshot planned for April 13th, please remove your Uniswap LP before this date!
- Airdrop planned for April 14th

Read more here: https://medium.com/hydranet/hydranet-token-swap-what-you-need-to-know-f6c8dfc2e253…

MultiSig
- DAO Vote #34 (HDN Token Contract Update) concluded: https://snapshot.box/#/s:hydranet.eth/proposal/0xb2e9448d44bfbf4df1d79a6591bdbe17f5dbed8e002ca54aba34cc69fb22f3a5…

- DAO Vote #35-1 (HDN Funding for OTC Sales) concluded: https://snapshot.box/#/s:hydranet.eth/proposal/0xd41e6830fec52e6bfb54f1772008eb6d4e0c3ef748734fbc2b5db5fae0d71b60…

- DAO Vote #35-2 (HDN Funding for OTC Sales) is live, if you haven't done so already, please cast your vote: https://snapshot.box/#/s:hydranet.eth/proposal/0xa4a8b6a9c94f56e9e3ede9547625b86c900ecdf7cb78eb87e04070ca00e022b7


Thursday, April 10, 2025

Planetary Cycles: Review of Jupiter/Uranus cycles & how it might affect our future.

For those who don't know what "Planetary cycles are", planetary cycles can tell us how the world & society is shaped based on how planets interact/aspect each other.

When 2 planets conjoin, it marks the beginning of a cycle. When they conjoin again after completing a full 360 degree cycle, it marks the beginning of the next cycle. Everything in between is part of that cycle. These cycles can vary widely in terms of how long they take to play out.

Within planetary cycles, squares and oppositions indicate points of tension, challenge, and potential for growth. Trines & Sextiles may be relevant to flowing dynamics, but for the sake of my studies, I’ve looked at just the conjunctions, squares & oppositions as they are considered major aspects traditionally & can mark major milestones in history. I'd be curious to see how trines/sextiles (particularly in exact aspects) shape humanity. Squares often represent friction and conflict, forcing individuals or society to address imbalances and push through obstacles. Oppositions highlight polarities and require resolution, encouraging individuals to find balance and understand opposing viewpoints. Each cycle lasts from 1 conjunction to the next.

For the sake of this post (I may dive deep into other planetary cycles in the future as I continue to study) I will discuss Jupiter/Uranus cycles.

Jupiter-Uranus cycles last about 13-14 years, bringing sudden breakthroughs, societal growth, innovations, economic shifts, and/or major technological advancements. These show how the world’s growth & expansion may shape out & take place.

Historically, these cycles align with scientific revolutions, financial transformations, and shifts in global power structures in terms of sudden breakthroughs & technological progressions. The 2024 - 2037 cycle will be interesting, as Uranus enters Gemini (July 7, 2025 - 2033), shifting an innovative focus from Taurus themes (finance, resources, agriculture) to Gemini themes (technology, AI, media, transportation, and information). Once Uranus enters Cancer from 2033 until 2040, a focus on revolution, technological advancements, and breakthroughs will be focused on the care & wellbeing of humanity, as social causes due to the disruption of previous events may call for a need to care for the masses. This may include advancements such as progressive therapy techniques, holistic medicine, improved childcare for working classes, and solutions to current housing crises (potentially relating to the climate crisis as well but not confirmed 100%).

The Last Uranus-Jupiter Cycle (2010 - 2024): The Age of Digital Expansion & Disruptive Innovation.

The previous Jupiter-Uranus cycle began on June 8, 2010, with a conjunction in the sign of Pisces/Aries (The conjunction(s) happened in both signs technically due to retrogrades). Over the next 14 years, the world experienced massive digital expansion, a growth of creative expression over the internet, political upheavals, financial disruptions, and breakthroughs in AI, social media, and even space exploration.

Key Themes of the 2010-2024 Cycle

  1. The Rise of AI & Big Tech Dominance
  • AI advancements: The rise of artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, and automation began to reshape industries.
  • Tech monopolies: Companies like Google, Amazon, Facebook (now called Meta), and Apple became more powerful than many worldly governments.
  • The beginning of AI replacing jobs (especially in content creation, customer service, and automation).
  1. The Social Media Revolution & Misinformation Era
  • Social media became the dominant way people consumed information (Twitter, Instagram, TikTok, YouTube).
  • Misinformation and deepfake technology began to grow, influencing politics and culture.
  • The “attention economy” led to a rise in digital addiction & mental health concerns (which we still see shaping the world today).
  1. Financial Disruptions: Crypto & The "Gig" Economy
  • Bitcoin & various cryptocurrency booms and crashes (from early hype to mainstream adoption).
  • Rise of decentralized finance (aka DeFi) and blockchain-based economies.
  • The gig economy expanded (Uber, DoorDash, Airbnb, etc) where individuals could work on their own time, but this shift also led to worker instability.
  1. Political & Social Upheavals
  • Arab Spring (2010-2012): Digital revolutions overthrew governments in the Middle East.
  • 2016-2020 the Global Populism Wave: Trump, Brexit, and other nationalist movements began to shape the world.
  • 2020-2024 Global Protests: Racial justice movements such as BLM started growing, anti-authoritarian protests in China, Iran, and beyond also took place.
  1. Space & Transportation Innovations
  • SpaceX revolutionized space travel (reusable rockets, Mars missions planned).
  • Autonomous vehicles and electric cars (Tesla’s rise (and other EVs), self-driving technology started developing).
  • Commercial space tourism began even if it's not widespread as of yet (Blue Origin, SpaceX, Virgin Galactic).

Key Turning Points in the 2010-2024 Cycle

2010-2011 (Jupiter-Uranus in Aries): Explosive beginnings - Arab Spring, Wikileaks, rise of social media activism.

2014 (First Square: Jupiter in Cancer square Uranus in Aries): Tech bubble, rise of populist movements, tensions between digital freedom and surveillance.

2016-2017 (Opposition: Jupiter in Libra opposite Uranus in Aries): Political chaos - Trump elected, Brexit, mass misinformation online began to blossom to much larger degrees.

2021-2022 (Last Square: Jupiter in Aquarius square Uranus in Taurus): Crypto crash, AI explosion (ChatGPT, deepfake tech), rapid inflation, supply chain crises.

2024 (Cycle Ends: Jupiter-Uranus in Taurus): AI reaches a tipping point, global economies restructure, mass automation accelerates.

The Current Jupiter-Uranus Cycle (2024-2037): The Age of AI, Digital Revolutions, Communication Shifts, and a Calling to care for Humanity.

The first half of this cycle (2024 - 2032) will be dominated by Uranus in Gemini, emphasizing AI, digital revolutions, media, and transportation shifts. However, after Uranus enters Cancer in 2032, the focus will shift dramatically toward emotional, cultural, and domestic upheavals, leading to a global restructuring of emotional welfare, housing, and security.

Phases of the 2024 - 2037 Jupiter-Uranus Cycle

Part 1: July 7, 2025 – Uranus enters Gemini (stays until 2032)

  • AI, digital communication, and automation will completely reshape daily life (we are already seeing this start to form).
  • Breakthroughs in space travel possible, high-speed transportation & the development of evolved transportation systems may become more prevalent
  • Decentralized platforms & entities in general could emerge more prominently. 
  • Past Uranus in Gemini cycles (1858–1866, 1942–1949) aligned with revolutions in transportation (railroads, aviation, etc.). So, we may see further developments in transportation at this time.
  1. April 21, 2024 – Cycle Begins (Jupiter-Uranus Conjunction at 21 degrees in Taurus)

Massive financial shifts (such as with stocks, crypto, etc.), AI integration into economies begins to become more widespread (such as through government), and automation of industries arise on a larger scale.

Geopolitical tensions also arise at this time (including escalation of Russia/Ukraine War, major elections around the world took center stage, etc.).

Historical parallel: The last Jupiter-Uranus conjunction in Taurus (1941) occurred during WWII, leading to economic restructuring and technological advancements.

The political happenings in 2024 likely relate to the shaping & innovative growth in society over the next 13 or so years.

Please note everything beyond this point is speculative, and may be themes we see expansion & innovation towards in the future due to Jupiter/Uranus cycles:

  1. 2028–2029 – First Square (Jupiter in Virgo square Uranus in Gemini)
  • AI regulation and digital privacy laws may intensify. Think of the book 1984 (maybe not as extreme…. I hope)
  • Automation may create economic changes or instability (could be one or both..)- debates over Universal Basic Income (UBI) become exasperated/mainstream. Could be when UBI is birthed into reality as well? (You may know more timelines revolving these projections), but UBI could be central as Jupiter will enter Virgo & square Uranus in Gemini.
  • Cybersecurity threats may escalate; major AI or technologically driven conflicts emerge both from an individual standpoint & economic standpoint. 
    • May involve security issues around new online structures that shape different countries' governments (such as information bases, economic platforms, data leaks & espionage may cause major shifts at this time).
    • For individuals, massive data breaches in personalized accounts are possible (finance accounts, social media accounts, personal data leaks in general). 
  • Technological malfunctions on a large scale may be prevalent as well.
  • Possible breakthroughs on the well-being of the planet could become unlocked.
  1. 2031 - 2032 : Opposition (Jupiter in Sagittarius opposite Uranus in Gemini)
  • Geopolitical struggles over AI, media, and digital governance will crack open on a new level as issues formed throughout the cycle will become apparent at this time. The good will be good, but the bad will be bad. Polarization of Jupiter/Uranus themes will emerge.
  • Space exploration milestones - potential colonization of the Moon or Mars may become in the forefront of these advancements. Or finding ways to harness more resources from space or once untapped places in general may be addressed. Same goes for transportation advancements, as “smarter” transportation could emerge at this time.
  • AI-driven propaganda and ideological battles may reshape politics. New divides may form, as battles become less about left vs right, but instead truth vs propaganda. Within these divides, more subdivides may form, supporting a transition from a 2-party system in parts of the Western World.

PART 2: July 2032 - Uranus enters Cancer (stays until 2039/2040)- The focus shifts from technology to security, housing, and emotional/cultural revolutions.

  • Climate migration, housing crises, and global resettlement patterns may become an urgent focus around this time (even if these topics escalate before these dates).
  • Governments may (KEY WORD MAY) push for more control over domestic life (family policies, home surveillance, topics related to climate migration causes).
  • AI-driven smart homes become mainstream, blending digital and emotional security. Either that, or AI designed for improving the domestic life & time management of humanity may be a focus (think of robotic delivery systems to deliver groceries, just as one example). 
  • We may also see an evolution in infrastructure in general surrounding climate change &/or wellness/housing crisis’s at this time. Or needs to do so being addressed on a bigger level.
  1. 2034 - 2035 - Final Square (Jupiter in Aries square Uranus in Cancer)
  • Financial instability possible with newly developed systems during Uranus in Gemini - possible stock market crashes, crypto crashes, or other major monetary shifts may take place (hopefully it’s just shifts… not crashes… historically these squares have seen both).
  • Housing crisis or migration, or a need to take care of humanity on a new level related to housing & material security may develop.
  • Emotional and psychological impact of AI - rising concerns over digital mental health. Clever treatments for mental health may be implemented, digitalized or progressive therapies may be called to surface, or unorthodox wellness treatments (holistic medicine, hypnotherapy, etc.) could boom at this time out of necessity. ASTROLOGY for therapeutic benefits may boom as well.
  • Cultural and familial shifts - redefinition of marriage, gender roles, and caregiving may take place. As Jupiter will be in ARIES during this square, my guess is that traditional roles may be radically questioned- unorthodox relationship structures may form, and gender debates (touching on gender identity & gender roles) may peak at this time. Whereas others may be called to fit more traditional roles as repopulation becomes a topic for debate.
  1. September 2037 – Cycle Ends (Next Jupiter-Uranus Conjunction in Cancer)

A new cycle begins based on the themes developed in the prior cycle.

Let me know if you’ve studied planetary cycles & whether you have any thoughts on what to expect given the upcoming Jupiter/Uranus cycle. Also let me know if you have any more historical context with Jupiter/Uranus cycles because I’d love to learn about them (if you read this far, thank you as well. This took a long time to type up so I’m glad someone read this LOL).

*Had to edit for a few typos, my bad. Should've proofread LOL. If anyone spots any further errors let me know.


Wednesday, April 9, 2025

TOP drops 3% in turbulent IPO; QUESTION: What's happening right now?; Asiabest tender offer dates adjusted (Thursday, April 10)

Happy Thursday, Barkada --

The PSE gained 183 points (!!) to 6006 ▲3.2%

What a crazy couple of days for those who invest/follow foreign markets. I've been answering questions privately from so many readers that I decided to start a daily "What's happening" post that will update on the overnight news. I'd love to keep answering specific questions, but there aren't enough hours in the day to do that, manage my own investments, write MB, and live my regular life, so that's what we're going to do for now.

*** FSF UPDATE ***

In happier news, the FREE STUFF FRIDAY draw is tomorrow morning, and the cut-off for entries will be end-of-day today, so today is your last day to enter [link] if you haven't already.

SURVEY LINK

The grand prize is a 1.5 HP Split Type Inverter aircon from our sponsor, NEXTASIA Land, so you could say the stakes are pretty high! Or cool. I guess that would have been better.

The aircon winner and the twenty umbrella winners will be announced tomorrow morning!

▌In today's MB:

  • TOP drops 3% in turbulent IPO
    • 100% oversubscribed
    • 1st day churn low (~14%)
    • Stabilization fund active
  • QUESTION: What's happening right now?
    • Update on global finance
    • DOW lurching up and down
    • Commodities, currency all moving
  • Asiabest tender offer dates adjusted
    • Everybody still waiting on PLC
    • Fairness opinion delayed
    • They say we get it tomorrow

▌Daily meme | Subscribe (it's free) | Today's email

▌Main stories covered:

  • [UPDATE] Top Line drops 3% in turbulent IPO... Top Line Business Development [TOP 0.30 ▼3.2%; 100% avgVol] [link opened trading on Tuesday just below its ₱0.31/share IPO offer price. By 10 AM, with the price languishing at the session’s low point of ₱0.285/share, a huge surge of buying interest pushed TOP’s price up to ₱0.315/share over the course of just 15 minutes. The stock would bounce around between ₱0.295 and ₱0.31 for the rest of the day until the final few minutes, when the stock rocketed up to ₱0.32/share, then immediately sank back to ₱0.30/share to close the day’s trading. Over 326 million shares changed hands during the session, worth nearly ₱100 million, with ₱0.5 million worth of net foreign buying. TOP starts life on the PSE with a 22% public float.

    Was the IPO oversubscribed? Yes! TOP said that it raised a total of ₱732.6 million, which implies that all (or nearly all) of the ~214 million overallotment shares were sold. The ₱666 million raised from the sale of the primary firm offer shares will go to TOP, and the remaining ₱66 million raised from the sale of the secondary overallotment shares will go to the Lim Family’s holding company, Top Line Equity Corporation.

    Is there a stabilization fund? Yes, but it’s been a while since we’ve had an IPO, so let’s quickly remember how the work. First, the stabilization fund can only buy up stock (supply of artificial demand) when the price is below the IPO offer price of ₱0.31/share. Any movement of TOP’s price above ₱0.31/share during the session was organic. The stabilization fund has a maximum purchasing quota of 214,8440,000 TOP shares, and a maximum lifetime of 30 days. It ends when either of those two limitations are met/triggered.

    Churn was low: Only about 14% of the public float changed hands on the first day of trading, which is on the low side. 1st day churn isn’t a clear signal, but the higher the churn, the greater the number of IPO buyers that might just be short-term flippers. I don’t start thinking about churn unless it starts to get close to 50%, so this result tells me that the vast majority of IPO buyers were in the trade for the right reasons. Not just to make a quick chunk of money.

    What’s next for TOP? Expansion. Regardless of what’s happening to the price of oil (it’s dropping), or what’s happening to the world around us (it’s buckling under fallout from tariffs), TOP just has to execute on its prospectus plan to build out its Light Fuels service station network. They’re putting the money into something they know how to do, in a region where they know how to do it.

    • MB: Success isn’t guaranteed, and anything retail-facing is subject to external factors like consumer sentiment, but this management team has already delivered in the past on what they’re saying they’ll do in the future. I’m not a huge fan of the fuel retail business, but part of that is from having spent a lifetime watching Petron [PCOR 2.46 ▲4.2%; 75% avgVol] and Phoenix [PNX 4.17 ▼0.2%; NaN% avgVol] squander their respective opportunities. To me, this is as much about property management as it is about selling fuel. What opportunities unfold when a company has a connected network of convenient point-of-sale locations? What margin-builders will TOP be able to leverage to grow its profitability serving a customer base that it knows very well? While they do that, let’s see how TOP’s first few days on the exchange go.
  • [UPDATE] What’s happening right now?... Considering the magnitude of what is happening in the US and how that is rippling around the world, I felt like it might be useful to do a daily check-in to just note what has happened and what things appear to be moving at any given time.

    What’s the goal? Hard to say. Trump has failed to provide a coherent overview of his own plan, and seems to have (to some degree) lost control of the plan’s narrative as political surrogates are left to defend the plan against the growing opposition to the move and the global financial chaos it has created. The stock market crash has so far not prompted the Fed to lower rates, nor has it caused long-term bond yields to fall, so we can’t tell yet if this is all a part of a plan to refinance US debt at a lower rate, or if it’s simply a manifestation of madness and power. Now he just announced a 90-day pause on tariffs.

    The DOW is all over the place: The US markets have been lurching dramatically during each trading day. On Tuesday, the DOW actually pumped up almost 500 points on rumors that the US would grant a 90-day pause on the implementation of Trump’s tariffs, only to lose all that (and then some more) when it was revealed to be “fake news”. On Wednesday, the DOW dropped almost 800 points on news that the White House had confirmed its plan to impose an additional 34% tariff on imports from China, raising the total tariff on Chinese goods to 104%. Those tariffs went into effect. Then China announced retaliatory tariffs. These are intraday swings that I do not remember witnessing in my life as a trader. These are not normal times. The DOW is up 150 points this morning as I write this. EDIT: It’s up 2673 points on news of Trump announcing 90-day pause on tariffs for everyone (except China).

    Commodities: Gold seems to have leveled off around the $2,980-$3,020/ounce range, down from the $3,150 highs we saw before the tariff announcements. Oil has dropped significantly and continues to drop as of this writing. A barrel of oil was $71 before the announcement; it was $56 yesterday, and it’s $57 today.

    Currency: The big news in the FX markets on Wednesday was People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and its move to “send a signal” to the US through the strategic devaluing of the yuan below a long-held range. A weaker yuan would make Chinese products cheaper in foreign currencies, and potentially offset some of the Trump tariff’s impact on the value of Chinese goods relative to those made in the US. If China devalues the yuan (as it did during Trump’s 1st term) and allows some degree of capital flight from China, we could see wealthy Chinese race to acquire foreign currencies and assets, like back in 2015. That event was very positive for Bitcoin’s price.

    Bitcoin and friends: After chilling at over $100,000 per BTC in late January, BTC is now at around $77,000 and still showing weakness, dropping almost $10,000 over the course of the tariff period alone. Whatever is happening to BTC is nothing compared to the implosion facing ETH hodlers, with prices down more than 56% YTD and down over 20% during the tariff period. At least FARTCOIN holders are happy.

    • MB: This is Exhibit #1 in the “Voting Matters” debate. It’s not controversial to say that Kamala Harris would not have caused this to happen, as whatever is happening here is 100% on Trump’s account. That said, I think the uncomfortable truth is that Harris probably wouldn’t have done anything to adjust the long-term trajectory of any of the problems that have caused the US electorate to support the Trump administration to commit these financial atrocities. But that’s all in the past. Looking forward, it’s hard to imagine putting any of this toothpaste back in the tube. I get the impression that things have changed dramatically in ways that we might not feel for months or even years, but that once we feel them, we might think it a little bit overwhelming to consider the severity of the changes that have occurred in such a (relatively) short time. I don’t see this attitude reflected back at me by my friends, colleagues, or family, so I’m doing my best to avoid smashing the panic button. But I can’t ignore that I smell smoke, and I feel like the only way for me to remain “in the arena” is to search for the source of the smoke and watch that process like a hawk. So that’s what I’m going to do!
  • [UPDATE] Asiabest tender offer dates have been adjusted... Asiabest Group [ABG 26.20 ▼1.1%; 0% avgVol] [link] notified the exchange that the tender offer by Premiumlands Corp (PLC) for up to 100 million ABG shares at ₱2.552/share will begin on April 14 and end on May 16. ABG said that a Tender Offer Report will be filed on April 11. The previous placeholder dates for the tender offer were between March 10 and April 7.

    • MB: I don’t have any special info on what caused the change beyond what the company already revealed (and that I reported) about a “delay in the finalization of the fairness opinion report from PLC”. As I wrote a month ago, “I’m not putting it on my calendar until I see the Tender Offer Report.” Until that official document is in our hands, I’m not going to get myself too twisted up about some dates that may or may not be important. There’s no penalty to PLC or ABG if PLC misses this self-imposed April 11 deadline. Regardless, I’m eager to read the fairness opinion because of the massive gap between PLC’s stated tender offer price of ₱2.552/share and the current market price which is ₱26.20/share. That’s spicy.

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Crypto Chaos: How Bitcoin Dropped $8K and Rebounded in Hours After Trump’s Tariff Shock

April 9, 2025, might go down as one of the wildest days in crypto history.

It started with a gut-wrenching drop—BTC fell to $74.5K after Trump announced a massive 125% tariff on Chinese goods. That move sent shockwaves through both traditional and crypto markets alike.

But by midday, crypto flipped the script. Bitcoin spiked back up to $83K, Ethereum climbed over $1,580, and trading volume exploded by 400%.

What’s wild? Underdog tokens like HYPE, JASMY, and IP held their ground and posted gains—pure resilience.

The day also saw: • The passing of the long-awaited STABLE Act 🔏 • U.S. Treasury blacklisting 8 wallets tied to $1B in illicit funds 🕵️‍♀️ • ETFs showing split behavior—bulls vs bears vibes

Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index tanked to 15 (extreme fear) before rebounding as panic turned to opportunity.

Upcoming events to watch: 🔹 CPI and PPI data drops 🔹 Potential retaliation by China 🔹 Neutron blockchain’s Mercury upgrade

Moral of the story? In crypto, every headline can spark a bull run—or a freefall. Buckle up. We’re just getting started.

BTC #ETH #Altcoins #CryptoNews #TrumpTariffs #CryptoRegulation #Neutron #MarketVolatility #NotFinancialAdvice


Is this the perfect bull setup?

With the deadline on tariffs pushed 90 days out, it’s hard to an imagine a more favorable confluence of current events for crypto.

I see 3 main factors are at play here:

  1. The world caught a glimpse of how vulnerable it is to geopolitical whims. The immense value of globally decentralized computing networks is no longer theoretical - it’s a real hedge against deteriorating international relations.

  2. Investors now have 90 days to prepare for another tariff storm and decentralized currencies are one of the few assets immune to the direct effects of tariffs. At the same time, investors are now more wary of holding cash or t-bills after the breakdown we just saw. They’ll be looking for ways to diversify into a range of assets that can withstand a trade war.

  3. While crypto sold off just like stocks this time around, that was mainly due to the systemic/recession risks. Bitcoin even handled itself better than many bluechip stocks. The recessionary risks will be more localized as investors have time to prepare in the next 90 days.

Just my 2¢. Curious to hear the community’s thoughts here.