Thursday, July 1, 2021

Markets Update and News: 02 Jul 2021

Dear All,

Markets update 02/07/21:

USDINR: ₹74.56; Brent: $76.10; Gold: $1,773; Bitcoin: $33,599; US 10 year: 1.466%; CBOE Vix: 15.48; USD index: 92.572

US markets kicked off the quarter with gains driven by value / cyclical stocks on continuing strong economic data. The June ISM manufacturing index came in at 60.6% below 61.2% for May though still strong & the 13th straight month of expansion. The weekly initial jobless claims for the week of 26 June declined by 51,000 to 364,000 which is the lowest since Mar 20 implying continuing progress in the labor markets. Oil prices also aided energy stocks. Markets are awaiting the non farm payrolls due today which could determine next steps of the Fed.

The S&P 500 rose 0.5% and notched its sixth-straight record close, finishing above 4,300 for the first time at 4,319. The Dow was higher by 0.4% / 131 points to close at 34,633, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite ticked up about 0.1% to 14,522.38.

European stocks closed higher with the Euro Stoxx up 0.6%. The DAX was up 0.5% to 15,603, the CAC was up 0.7% to 6,553 & the FTSE was up 1.25% to 7,125.

Shares in Asia-Pacific slipped on Thursday on slowing Chinese growth. The Caixin/Markit manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for June came in at 51.3 on Thursday, a lower reading than May’s 52.0. Chinese stocks closed lower as the Shanghai composite declined fractionally to 3,588 and the Shenzhen component slipped 0.8% to 15,038.

India stocks declined for a fourth day on rising Covid cases & also the weak manufacturing PMI for June at 48.1 from 50.8 in May. The Sensex lost 0.3% to 52,318, The Nifty 50 Index fell nearly 0.3% to 15,680.

The USD index closed higher by 0.2% at 92.572. EURUSD was at 1.1844, GBPUSD at 1.376, USDCNY at 6.4679 & USDJPY at 111.56. USDINR closed up 24 paise at 74.56.

Oil prices edged higher ahead of an OPEC+ meet on supply curbs where they are expected to increase production by lower levels - Brent was up 2% at $76.10 & U.S. WTI was up 2.4% at $75.23. Spot gold rose up 0.2% at $1,773.

______

News:

Economic Times

  • Vedanta Group to invest Rs 5,000 crore on social impact programs
  • Srei Infra Finance's board okays fundraising of up to Rs.2,500 crore
  • Temasek-owned Olam to sell Maharashtra Sugar plant to Wilmar-Renuka for Rs.350-500 crore
  • JSW Steel to pump in over Rs/25,000 crore to ramp up capacity
  • Jindal Steel and Power to invest Rs.7,500 crore, set up steel plant in Andhra Pradesh
  • Piramal Investment Advisory Services, 4 others settle case with SEBI
  • Puravankara FY21 sales bookings up 28% at Rs.2,202 crore
  • 9 NTPC units in eastern region achieve highest ever quarterly power generation
  • Ashok Leyland total June dispatches zoom to 6,448 units
  • Adani Ports aims to double EBITDA by 2025
  • GR Infraprojects IPO price band set at Rs.828-837; grey market premium at 41%

Business Standard

  • Banks' asset quality remained stable during pandemic year: RBI FSR
  • Financial creditors to take 95% haircut on Rs 7,800 cr Jet Airways dues
  • Telecom industry in trouble' is an understatement: Airtel's Sunil Mittal
  • RIL's giga factory-sized ambition for hydrogen could be a game changer
  • Auto firms post record production in June, make up for halt in May

Financial Express

  • SEBI floats consultation paper on Superior Voting Rights Share framework
  • Insider trading case: SEBI bars Biocon’s official from securities market for 3 months, levies fine
  • Fiscal deficit reined in at 8.2% of Budget Estimate
  • Ministries told to limit Q2 spending at 20% of BE
  • Govt removes import restrictions on refined palm oil till December
  • Eight core sectors’ output rises 16.8 pc in May

Mint

  • Supply  chain  deficit set to raise  prices  of electronic products
  • Oil prices surge as OPEC weighs rising demand in rich countries
  • UPI transactions surge to ₹5.47 lakh crore in June
  • OPEC+ panel recommends gradual oil-output hikes for rest of year
  • Investors' wealth soars ₹25.46 lakh cr so far this fiscal
  • JSW Steel to pump in over ₹25,000 cr to ramp up capacity to 37 million tonne

Business Line

  • Reliance Securities: SEBI confirms ban on 19 entities in front running case
  • Tata Steel eyes 25 per cent sales from its digital platform
  • OneWeb is part of the India vision: Sunil Mittal
  • Cabinet approves additional ₹19,041 crore for BharatNet PPP
  • Zydus seeks emergency-use nod for plasmid DNA vaccine
  • Centre approves proposals for 14 companies under PLI scheme for IT Hardware Products

_____

Indian Market Opening:

The Indian stock market is expected to open on a cautious note as trends on SGX Nifty indicate an opening for the index in India with a 9 points gain.

The BSE Sensex declined 164.11 points to 52,318.60, while the Nifty50 fell 41.50 points to 15,680 and formed a bearish candle on the daily charts.

According to pivot charts, the key support levels for the Nifty are placed at 15,646.17, followed by 15,612.33. If the index moves up, the key resistance levels to watch out for are 15,734.67 and 15,789.33.

Asian Markets

Asia-Pacific stocks were mixed in Friday morning trade as investors look ahead to a closely-watched U.S. jobs report set to be released later.

The Nikkei 225 in Japan nudged 0.3% higher while the Topix index gained 0.81%. South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.25%.

SGX Nifty

Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a cautious opening for the index in India with a 9 points gain. The Nifty futures were trading at 15,736 on the Singaporean Exchange around 07:30 hours IST.

IMF raises US 2021 growth forecast to 7%

The International Monetary Fund raised its 2021 U.S. growth projection sharply to 7.0% due to a strong recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and an assumption that much of President Joe Biden's infrastructure and social spending plans will be enacted.

The IMF's latest forecast, marking the fastest U.S. growth pace since 1984, compares with an April projection of 4.6% growth in 2021. The Fund raised its 2022 U.S. GDP growth forecast to 4.9%, up from its previous 3.5% April forecast.

OECD says 130 countries agree global taxation deal

Some 130 countries and jurisdictions have signed up to a global tax reform ensuring that multinationals pay their fair share wherever they operate, the OECD said on Thursday. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development said in a statement that global companies, including US behemoths Google, Amazon, Facebook, and Apple would be taxed at a rate of at least 15 percent.

The formal agreement follows an endorsement by the G7 group of wealthy nations last month at a meeting in Britain, when US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said a global minimum tax "would end the race to the bottom in corporate taxation".

Bitcoin drops over 5% to $33,226.36

Bitcoin dropped 5.17% to $33,226.36 on Thursday, losing $1,810.87 from its previous close. The world’s biggest and best-known cryptocurrency is down 48.8% from the year’s high of $64,895.22 hit on April 14.

Ether, the coin linked to the ethereum blockchain network, dropped 7.28% to $2,110.53 on Thursday, losing $165.81 from its previous close.

RBI extends interest subsidy scheme for exporters until September

The Reserve Bank on Thursday said a scheme providing interest subsidy for post and pre-shipment export credit has been extended by three months till September, a move that will provide relief to exporters. Exporters get the subsidy under the Interest Equalization Scheme for pre and post-shipment Rupee Export Credit'. Earlier in April, the scheme was extended till June 30.

"Government of India has approved the extension of Interest Equalization Scheme for Pre and Post Shipment Rupee Export Credit, with the same scope and coverage, for a further period of three months, i.e., up to September 30, 2021," the RBI said in a circular.

Banks' gross NPA ratio may rise to 9.8-11.22% in March 2022: RBI

The gross non-performing asset (GNPA) ratio of banks may rise to 9.8-11.22 percent in March 2022 under various stress scenarios due to the impact of the COVID pandemic, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said in its July 2021 edition of the Financial Stability Report (FSR), published on July 1.

A loan is classified as an NPA when it has remained unpaid for more than 90 days. At the end of March 2021, the gross NPA ratio stood at 7.48 percent for the banking sector.

US jobless claims fall to 364,000, a new pandemic low

The number of Americans applying for unemployment aid fell again last week to the lowest level since the pandemic struck last year, further evidence that the job market and the broader economy are rebounding rapidly from the coronavirus recession.

The Labor Department reported Thursday that jobless claims dropped by 51,000 to 364,000. Applications for unemployment benefits have fallen more or less steadily since the year began. The rollout of vaccines has sharply reduced new COVID-19 cases, giving consumers the confidence to shop, travel, eat out and attend public events as the economy recovers.

FII and DII data

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net sold shares worth Rs.1,245.29 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) net purchased shares worth Rs.880.60 crore in the Indian equity market on July 1, as per provisional data available on the NSE.

With inputs from Reuters & other agencies

Have a good trading/investing day,

The Equities Guy.


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------------------------------------
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Celsius pays industry leading interest rates on a wide variety of cryptocurrencies and stablecoins. Currently they have over 21 billion USD of crypto assets and are continuing on an aggressive growth path. In addition to earning, you can take fiat loans out against your crypto balances to avoid a taxable event. The cherries on top are weekly interest payments, no lock-ups, and FREE withdrawals!
Please note, you DO NOT want to withdraw any crypto from your account while the promo/referrals are ‘locked’ for 30 days. Doing so will likely cancel both bonuses.

Referral Code: 1080288f9a
Referral Link: https://celsiusnetwork.app.link/1080288f9a
Reward: $40 BTC
Eligibility: New Users
Details:

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  3. Complete the KYC / Verify your identity
  4. Deposit $400 or more of crypto into your account in your first deposit. You will receive the $40 of BTC in 30 days, but can see a pending deposit in your BTC wallet

------------------------------------
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  2. Deposit $100 or more of fiat or cryptocurrency
  3. Maintain the balance for 30 days (No withdraws!) and the $10 will be deposited the second Friday of the month after the promotion is earned.

------------------------------------
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Gemini is a US-based regulated and licensed cryptocurrency exchange. Its offerings include low cost trading, 10 free monthly withdrawals, the ability to earn on crypto balances, and an upcoming credit card.
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  2. Complete KYC / Verify your identity
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------------------------------------
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Posts and videos that talk about “rich people habits” are such BS.

I do not have very much money myself and I do not know what it feels like to be super rich, but I do some wedding planning on the side and I have spent a lot of time with really wealthy people in South Florida.

Granted, I usually work with rich women, since men are typically not interested in it, but I have spent a lot of time with both.

The only thing I can say about rich people is that they’re really diverse. There is no pattern of behavior that all rich people share. All those blog posts and videos about “20 habits rich people have” and such are total bullshit.

Some of them wake up really early in the morning; some of them don’t. Some of them read everyday; some of them don’t. Some of them keep up to date with all the current world events; some of them don’t. Some of them are really good at talking to people; some of them are really awkward. Etc. Etc.

One bride and her sister, who have literally eight Ferraris in the garage (plus lambos and other stuff that I don’t even recognize), asked me about payment options. I told them the different ways they could pay me, and when I added that I don’t accept Bitcoin, both of them told me they had no idea what Bitcoin even is. A different bride had notifications every half hour to say where Bitcoin was now valued.

If anyone ever tells you which habits rich people have, it’s probably BS because rich people don’t share the same habits.


Crypto.com Supercharger Bitcoin Event: Stake CRO & Earn BTC (8.52% APY)

https://youtu.be/fEfzkunkFGA

Estimation of fractional reserves on exchanges

The private nature of XMR wallets (transfers) provides opportunity for every XMR exchange (service) to be fractionally reserved. No one can see it, no one can easy prove it. Let's try to make some estimate as it all might be. Let's take Coinbase and bitcoin as models. (Numbers are rounded+averaged.)

total lying on Coinbase: 1M BTC

24h trading volume: 15k BTC (about 1.5% of all their BTC)

24h average daily deposits are about same as daily withdrawals: 15k BTC

Coinbase can be theoretically operated without any bitcoins in treasury. (When user makes a withdrawal request and there are not enough coins, it only be a moment when someone makes a deposit.)

If they want to work nice and smoothly and be prepared for larger atypical withdrawals or some kind of bank run (2+ weeks until panic disappears), they need to have up to 25% of all their Bitcoins (250k).

​

XMR Kraken 24h trading volume is about 15k and it never had any big problems with withdrawals - so it definitely has the right XMR fractional reserve for its about 1M lying on exchange (by estimation according to 24h trading volume).

XMR Binance 24h trading volume is near to 200k XMR and it has sometimes troubles with withdrawals, so it definitely has not the right fractional reserve for its more than 10M lying on exchange (by estimation according to 24h trading volume).

​

Fractional reserved exchanges can be fun to watch if some big event happens (hacker ransom in XMR, Coinbase Monero listing, Satoshi Nakamoto wants private money, ... ). If nothing special happens, reserves can be slowly replenished (Best to do it when the price is down).

​

Feel free to check and correct me. This post will be edited (upgraded) - based on your fine comments.


The Top 10 Blockchain Influencers

​

The Top 10 Blockchain Influencers

The bitcoin market is a whirlwind of activity. And the only way to be a successful trader in this market is to keep up with the latest developments in the crypto world. Fortunately, those who are enthusiastic about the worlds of crypto and blockchain are also likely to be active online and vocal about their views. Following the appropriate people on Twitter can keep you up to date on what's going on in the cryptocurrency world and perhaps provide insight into the future roadmap.

Have you begun to question who these folks are? Here are the top ten crypto influencers right now.

Vitalik Buterin

Anyone interested in cryptocurrency should be familiar with Buterin. But did you know that he began his crypto obsession at the youthful age of 17? He began writing for Bitcoin Weekly shortly after graduating from high school and went on to co-found Bitcoin Magazine. Because of the limitations, he saw with Bitcoin, he decided to establish his platform, Ethereum, to address them. On his blog and Twitter, he continues to be a prolific writer. He is a wealth of knowledge for anyone interested in cryptocurrency.

Erik Voorhees

Erik Voorhees has been working in the cryptocurrency sector since 2011. He was one of the early adopters. He began his crypto career as BitInstant's Head of Marketing. Following that, he founded Coinapult in 2012 and ShapeShift in 2014. He is still the CEO of ShapeShift today. Several notable crypto magazines have named Voorhees as one of the top influencers in the blockchain and cryptocurrency communities. The best thing is that he enjoys sharing his experiences and knowledge with the rest of the world, which makes his Twitter feed an invaluable resource.

Barry Silbert

Barry Silbert, the founder, and CEO of Digital Currency Group (DCG) has been impacting the cryptocurrency sector for quite some time. His firm is a major seeder and investor in cryptocurrency startups. Silbert is also the founder and CEO of Grayscale Investments, as well as a partner in Coindesk, a tremendously successful cryptocurrency exchange. He is also a member of several Ethereum trusts. Silbert is the one to ask if you want to know which altcoins are worth investing in. Following his advice could show you how to spot an excellent crypto coin for yourself.

Tim Draper

Tim Draper created Draper Associates, a firm that specializes in financing "exceptional enterprises," and is well-known as an angel investor and venture capitalist. If Draper is involved in an ICO, it is usually assumed that it will succeed. Given his support for Tezos and Bancor in 2017, this belief appears to be backed up by facts! He's also been a loud advocate for the SEC to create a crypto-friendly regulatory climate. His Twitter stream is a veritable treasure trove of knowledge about the crypto space's hazards and prospects.

Charlie Lee

How can you ignore the founder of Litecoin and former Director of Engineering at Coinbase if you follow Ethereum's creator? There have also been unconfirmed rumors that Lee was involved in the establishment of Bitcoin. He's also a driving force behind SegWit. He is unquestionably a huge figure in the crypto sector, with hundreds of thousands of Twitter followers.

Brian Armstrong

Brian Armstrong, the CEO, and Co-Founder of Coinbase has revolutionized the way merchants, consumers, and investors manage and use cryptocurrencies. As a result, what he has to say has a significant impact on the crypto world. And he has a lot to say, with his Twitter feed always full of news, project opinions, and information on major crypto events.

Fred Ehrsam

Fred Erhsam has continued his crypto career by focusing on numerous additional initiatives after co-founding Coinbase with Brian Armstrong. And, while Armstrong's Twitter feed is more news-oriented, Ehrsam isn't hesitant to speak his mind, offering his perspectives on cryptocurrency investing and personal growth.

Andreas Antonopoulos

Andreas Antonopoulos, the author of Mastering Bitcoin, The Internet of Money, and Mastering Ethereum, has a lot to say about the crypto world. His Bitcoin speeches, podcasts, YouTube channel, and articles are a wealth of information, making cryptocurrency simple to understand and use for the general public.

Ben Horowitz

Ben Horowitz, the author of The Hard Things About Hard Things, is a crypto analyst and investor. Horowitz is a co-founder and partner at Andreessen Horowitz, where he has extensive experience in software development and administration. This allows him to deliver relevant information not only about altcoins but also about the people behind them.

Roger Ver

Roger Ver, dubbed "Bitcoin Jesus," was one of the initial investors in not only Bitcoin.com, but also Blockchain.com, BitPay, Z.cash, ShapeShift, Kraken, and Purse.io. He actively contributes to numerous Bitcoin forums and websites with his knowledge. His Twitter stream is a wealth of knowledge on critical topics such as blockchain integrity, cryptocurrency ethical considerations, and more.

Knowledge and information are extremely valuable in the bitcoin realm. So, to make effective investment decisions, make sure you stay up to date on the latest developments in this field.