Picking Winners with Coinmarkcal (that's not a typo)

In a bull market, it's not hard to turn a profit, but if you want to maximise your gains then you'll need to seek those coins that will pump harder than others. Yeah, you could jump on the latest meme coin trend and buy a ton of ELONJIZZDOGE or whatever, but probably the best way is to take note of upcoming events, launches, and so on.

Take Cardano for example. Everyone here seems either totally surprised or pleasantly vindicated by its recent performance. Some of us, however, just saw that they were doing the Alonzo hard fork on September 12th and knew that, in a bull market, there was no way this wasn't going to pump hard.

Likewise, take BMON. It's yet another stupid crypto game but for some reason it's absolutely mooned over the past few days. Why? Because it launches on August 28th. When you know that, you can buy it, ride it, and get off before the launch.

In other words, projects that have something big in the pipeline moon hard in the days and weeks leading up to it. For things like a Bitcoin halvening or the last Ethereum update, it's big news and everyone who isn't living under a rock knows about it.

But what about the rare gems?

One great tool I've been using for a few years is Coinmarketcal.com. Nope, that's not a typo. Everytime I try to visit it, my browser warns me it could be a scam because it's so similar to Coinmarketcap.com, but this "cal" is short for "calendar."

It's basically a list of upcoming events. Much of it is crap, of course, but you can search through all that to find some amazing buys. I used it to find the ADA and BMON events and it's paid off nicely.

So for those of you who didn't already know it, that's my gift. I'm not affiliated with them and there's no referral code or anything. Just wanted to share a cool method of finding the next pump. Of course, this is not financial advice and you should all DYOR etc etc etc.

Good luck. May the crypto gods shine on your portfolio.

Next move --- focus or diversify?

Ok I've got a nice bag each of algo and ada (and a little bit of eth) and am looking into investing either more in them (focus approach), or diversify into a third blockchain. Have been looking into Solana (got cold feet after recent Luna Yield event) and VET (seems a lot of people don't like it).

Have I missed any good opportunities out there? I mean a separate Blockchain ecosystem not add-ons. Since I don't like PoW mining for environmental reasons (been there and hate that), I don't do Bitcoin or other energy hungry projects. Thanks for your helpful discussion in advancd.

PGSharp Modified App - Easy to Setup, Works up to Android 11, Has a Free and Paid version, New Raid Feed (paid feature) [August 22, 2021]

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[1] Always download and use the PGSharp.apk file from WWW.PGSHARP.COM because it is the safest place to get it from!

If you download the app outside of their website, you are at risk for having your account and financial information stolen, sold, or used. I cannot help you recover your account. You are also stuck with the bill if they use your debit/credit card to buy $20,000 worth of Poke Coins.

[2] PGSharp app cannot be discussed in Pokedex100 & PokeXperience Discord groups.

PGSharp app is a competing app against iPogo and Xspoofer. The two modified iOS apps are partners with the Discord group mentioned above. iOS modified apps used to be the king of easy to install to start spoofing right away. They don't hold the crown anymore because Apple constantly revokes their certificate that prevents them from being easy to install on iPhones and iPads. PGSharp holds the crown now because the Android OS system does not require certificate bullshit system that Apple has for its apps. If you get banned from any Discord group, I cannot help you get unbanned!

[3] PGSharp is banned in r/PokemonGoSpoofing.

The automod has been program to remove any posts or comments that reference to PGSHARP. TastyBananaPeppers, and PogoAndroidSpoofing. No one will be able to see your post or comment unless you bypass the filter. The main mod is still busy playing everyone's dad and not being there for you when you need him to be. This does not make sense because he does not play the game and is rarely active. I used to be a moderator under him back in 2018 to March 2020, and he has not changed at all. This is why r/PoGoAndroidSpoofing exists, a place for all Android spoofing methods.

[4] PGSharp is not my app.

I left this part out of the guide last time to shorten it but now, I have to include it again because someone hired a lawyer to tried to sue me for their time loss when PGSharp was down and that person couldn't do a ticketed event. I thought this guy was trolling me, but it turns out to be legit. I made his lawyer clock in roughly 20 hours by making him show proof that his laws weren't made up. The lawyer actually provided screenshots and pictures from a real law book and site. Lawyers are very expensive and will charge hundreds of dollars per hour. The lawyer end up billing his cilent $4,700 for wasting his time because the client was upset and refused to read the information I provided in the PGSharp guide and Mega Post despite directing him to read it multiple times.

[5] Why is PGSharp allowed here but banned in PokemonGoSpoofing?

You can read about the important parts in my MEGA Post: https://www.reddit.com/r/PoGoAndroidSpoofing/comments/p9ir2w/clickpress_here_mega_post_3_everything_you_need/ where I tell you about my subreddit and myself along with other frequently asked questions about this topic.

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[1] Pgsharp added a new raid feed feature for paid key users. You access it by going into your feed then selecting raids. You can also customize it. I'll update the Features Explain Google Doc with it soon.

[2] I added some more information how to buy a key because people don't know how.

[3] I added a Frequently Asked Question section and move stuff down there. I'll add more questions and answers later.

[4] PGSharp Discord Invite: https://www.pgsharp.com/discord

[5] PGSharp's customer service link: https://www.pgsharp.com/feedback/

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There is no such thing as "safe and ban proof" when Niantic says spoofing is against their Terms of Service. Spoofing is cheating. This means cheaters can get punished under their Three Strikes system. You can read more about it in https://www.reddit.com/r/PoGoAndroidSpoofing/comments/kqmnve/new_spoofers_all_about_threestrike_system_red/ This covers about their ban system.

If you don't want to read it, using your main account with Pgsharp carries risk. If you're a crybaby, do not use your main account. You never know when Niantic will detect PGsharp. If you're gambler and enjoy risk taking, you can use your main account.

How can I make PGSharp safe and ban proof?

By not using your main account.

How do you get a Red Warning/Strike when you use PGSharp?

When Niantic detects PGSharp, anyone who logs into their account in PGSharp will get a Red Warning/Strike. Niantic has a strike system: 1st Red Warning (7-day soft ban), 2nd Red Warning (30-day temporary ban), and 3rd Red Warning (PERMANENT ACCOUNT BAN). If you get the 1st Red Warning, it means you need to quit cheating/spoofing on the account forever.

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All emulators are detectable and have been through multiple ban waves in the past. If you ask for help with an emulator, I will remove your post. This is also not allowed here and is against Rule #5. If you repeatedly ask about an emulator, you can expect a temporary ban from my subreddit.

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You may need to install "Google Docs" from the Google Play Store to read this document that covers this topic. It is best to use landscape mode when reading it: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1E7aqDyMW2n_Cnba9B6s5YbcxPsv4i10vAybEED3LnmU/edit?usp=sharing

• If you want easy to setup, use PGSharp.
• If you want a reliable spoofing that is rarely down, use Smali Patcher with Pokemod. You can find these methods inside the Mega Post link.

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How do I buy a Standard / Paid Key?

Option #1 with their Patreon link: https://www.patreon.com/pgsofficial. This is a $5 per month subscription service. If you buy at day 15th, Patreon will start charging on the 1st of every month. If you want to use PayPal, you must use this link to do it. PayPal is a payment service where you can add your bank account, debit card, credit card, and/or PayPal labeled gift card. This is to help you pay for things securely. PayPal is optional.

1. Create a Patreon account and do the email confirmation.
2. Sign up for the $5 per month subscription and pay with PayPal or with credit/debit card.
3. You will get an email titled "Your PGSharp Standard Patron is activated!" with your key right after you pay with a PayPal confirmed/verified account. If you used a debit/credit card, it may take a few days to process.
4. If you do not see email with your key, you must use their Feedback Message system https://www.pgsharp.com/feedback/. This is the safest way to contact PGSharp.

Option #2 with their main website link: www.pgsharp.com. This is a non-recurring payment system. If you buy on the 15th, you must renew it on the 15th again. You can do it every month for $5 or three months at a time for $15. This is for people who do not use PayPal or have this available in their country. You can also use other forms of payment through their website.

1. Go to the website and press buy now under Standard Edition.
2. Choose between $5 monthly or $15 quarterly
3. Press continue then checkout.
4. Create an account or log into your existing account then fill out your name and address.
5. If you pay with credit/debit card, the information must match what you have on record for the card. The bank or card company can put a hold on the transaction then you must call them to allow the authorize the transaction or do it by email.
6. If you pay with something else and have problems, you must use their Feedback Message system https://www.pgsharp.com/feedback/. This is the safest way to contact PGSharp.
7. They will either email you your key or you get it from logging into your account through www.pgsharp.com.

Option #3 with Bitcoin. You can get their address by going into the #FAQ channel in their Discord group https://www.pgsharp.com/discord. I will not help you buy bitcoin to buy Pgsharp because it is hard to use.

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1. Google account login is not supported because PGSharp is not on the Google Play Store.
2. Adventure Sync does not work and cannot be turned on because it does not support Google account login and Google Fit data app.
3. You cannot buy Poke Coins in PGSharp because it is not connected to Google Pay services. You must buy the coins in Pokemon Go downloaded from the Google Play Store or Galaxy Store with a Samsung device. It is strongly recommended you spend your coins in the official app because sometimes PGSharp's servers have a problem that can cause you to lose your Poke coins. I know some people who bought something and never received it. They went to contact Niantic Customer service and got their account permanently banned because they know these people used a modified app, since Niantic found out there was nothing wrong with their servers. *If you attempt to buy through PGSharp, it's up to you to decide if you want to cancel your debit/credit card.

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You can only use Facebook or PTC to login.

• In order to use a Facebook login, you must pair a Google account to a Facebook account by reading https://niantic.helpshift.com/a/pokemon-go/?s=account-and-sign-in&f=linking-facebook-and-google-login-to-your-account&p=web. You must do it in the official Pokemon Go app. DO NOT create a FAKE Facebook account because Facebook can lock your account for using a fake identity. It is impossible to recover the account because you must provide Facebook with a real ID card with the fake identity as proof of ownership of the account.
• For PTC login, you can go here to create a PTC account https://www.pokemon.com. They do not accept throwaway email addresses anymore. Make sure you do the email confirmation.
• This works on:
• Android OS: 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 or 11 ; all must have Google Play Store support.
• RAM: 4 GB or more is recommended.
• This is a No Root method that does not require rooting.

Now for the instructions...

Step 1: Uninstall the official Pokemon Go app (Google Play Store version).

Step 2: Go to www.PGSHARP.com and press/click the Download blue button.

Step 3: Go to your download folder to install pgsX.XX.X.apk file and allow unknown apps to install.

• May need to disable Google Play Protect or have it ignore this app.

Step 4: Open Pokemon Go (same name and icon as the original app)

Step 5: Enter a birthday that proves you are 18 years old or older.

• Example: Janurary 1, 1980

Step 6: Select Returning Player or New Player.

• Press Facebook or Pokemon Trainer Club to login.

Step 7: Type in your Account Information and sign in.

Step 8: Allow access to your GPS/Location.

Step 9: Allow access for Pokemon Go to take pictures and record video, and device location

Step 9: Play the game!

Step 10: To update PGSharp, you go to www.PGSHARP.com, download the new APK, and then install it.

• You do not need to uninstall PGSharp before you install the new version.
• If you are a paid key user, you should export your profile as a backup before updating to the new version. This backup file contains your key and saved settings, favorites, and custom feeds.

Optional and not required, install Pokemon Go app (Samsung version):

Step 11: Download Pokemon Go (Samsung Galaxy App Version) from this link https://www.apkmirror.com/?post_type=app_release&searchtype=apk&s=pokemon+go.

• You can also download the plain one, which is the Google Play Store version to save data if you buy Poke Coins often.
• You can use the Samsung version to buy Poke Coins (Samsung devices only), play legit (any device), use adventure sync with DeFit or Pokewalk, or trade with yourself (must spoof to your real location).

Step 12: Go to your download folder to install long file name.apk.

Step 13: Go through the usual setup, and you can use Google, Facebook, or PTC account.

Step 14: To update the Samsung Galaxy App version, go to the link in step 11 then download and install it over the old Pokemon Go app.

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How can I install Pokemon Go (Google Play Store) and have PGSharp on my device at the same?

You can go to this post to learn how to do it: https://www.reddit.com/r/PoGoAndroidSpoofing/comments/opt2n5/how_to_clone_pgsharp_to_have_pokemon_go_google/ Virtual Go Plus does not work in a cloned PGSharp because it has no bluetooth support. This may also not work from time to time because I think PGSharp app developer does not want you to clone their app.

What does a feature do and how do I use it?

I created this Google Doc link to help you with this question. You may need to install "Google Docs" from the Google Play Store to open this document. It's also best to read in landscape mode. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Pqmgai_jPedYyHpOtot_BbChVnFcex03kZZlUfMUzIA/edit?usp=sharing. You can also go on YouTube and watch other people's videos on how to use a certain feature too.

Can I play on a tablet?

Yes.

Can I play on an Amazon Fire or Fire HD tablet?

My guess is maybe if you already have one. The problem with these devices is it does not have a GPS chip. You will get a GPS/Location error because you cannot play with out access to GPS.

Can I use another device to buy Poke Coins using the official Pokemon Go app?

Yes.

I am unable to login with my Facebook account.

Please try to login the original Pokemon Go. If you login successfully, unlink and relink your Facebook, or link to another Facebook.

Why do pokemon fee? Why I can't spin Pokestops?

This is related to the cooldown rule. You can read about it in my https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Pqmgai_jPedYyHpOtot_BbChVnFcex03kZZlUfMUzIA/edit?usp=sharing and learn how to use the Cooldown Timer feature that is available to both free and standard (paid key) users.

Can Virtual Go Plus use Great and Ultra balls?

No, it uses Red Pokeballs only. Enhanced Throw does not work with this too.

Can I connect my own Go Plus, Pokeball Plus, or Gotcha device?

No because they want you to use their Virtual Go Plus that costs money.

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Useful stuff as always:

These are links you can click with your mouse or press with your finger to open.

If you need anything else, be sure to check out: [Click/Press Here] MEGA POST #3: Everything You Need for Android Spoofing 2021 - Guides for No Root, Rooted, and Bots - GPX Routes, Poke Maps, Nests, Discord Groups, and Frequently Asked Questions

Mark Spitznagel Book Summary. The Dao of Capital and Safe Haven

Mark Spitznagel/Nassim Taleb

The Dao of Capital

• "The art of economics consists in looking not merely at the immediate but at the longer effects of any act or policy." Hazlet
• "You have to love to lose money and hate to make money to be successful" Klopp
• Far better to avoid direct, head-on competition and instead, pursue the roundabout path toward an intermediate step that leads to an eventual position of advantage
• Natural systems – from forests to markets – continuously seek balance.
• Austrian investing takes a roundabout path to market success by pursuing immediate loss during the investment process so you can gain more advantageously in the future.
• If investors could use history to predict market movements, they'd never be surprised by them or lose huge amounts of money.
• The market cannot be understood as predictable and law-abiding since it's unpredictable and chaotic at its core.
• The roundabout – the pain of positioning and paying now for the advantage and payoff later – only works when we remove our temporal blinders that keep us hyper focused in the moment. Then, and only then, can we pursue those proximal aims intended to give us an intermediate advantage from which the distal ends are more easily and effectively achieved. To say this is extremely challenging is an understatement.
• To succeed with the strategy of Austrian Investing, you must be able to tolerate initial setbacks.
• A system should naturally achieve balance through internal guidance. Attempts to intervene in the system will usually cause more problems than they solve. The Austrian School of Economics believes this about markets: government intervention doesn't help balance markets, it distorts them.
• We can only succeed with Austrian investing if we can stop focusing on the short term. This is extremely difficult, but it's also critical to our success in the long run. It's hard because humans are designed to prefer things that benefit them now rather than later.
  • This is part of our evolution as humans; we had to focus on immediate threats in order to survive and thrive as a species. Our culture also teaches us that the moment is all that matters—we live in an instant gratification society where people want everything right now without having to work hard for it or wait long periods of time (such as saving money).
• Patience is the most precious treasure
  • Most people are unable to take the roundabout route because our evolution and desire for the here and now (Like the children in the marshmallow study, 1 now or 2 later). Therein lies an edge to the Austrian investor who can take the roundabout approach
  • The reason for this difficulty can be found in our wiring, those genetic tracings of our evolutionary journey rooted in survival, when overlooking immediate needs was reckless and life-threatening.
• Without a functioning feedback loop, the system goes haywire like a faulty thermostat
• The Federal Reserves attempts at "Fire Suppression" leads inevitably to bigger and more deadly "Forest Fires"
• Austrians believe in the "boom and bust cycle" where artificially low interest rates foster an unsustainable boom (characterized by overleveraged borrowers investing in operating capital that will be unproductive at natural interest rates) and the inevitable bust.
• Markets tend to experience infrequent, large moves or "fat tails"

• Wall Street's problem is one of lost opportunity; you MUST go for it now or you won't have a chance tomorrow. This causes Wall Street traders to focus on the now

• You can't time the market. IE – Pick tops and bottoms.

• Short term doesn't matter

• When interest rates are low, bonds are not as negative correlated as you would like with equities and not as much of a safe haven. Do not chase yields

• The federal reserve will have difficulty "normalizing rates"

• Alpha (inefficiencies) is difficult to capture for investors

  • The question you have to ask yourself is "Can you be more efficient than the market?" NO

• We don't know how the next recession will play out ahead of time. Cover your contingencies. Don't just plan for one.

• Don't fight the fed. IE – Shorting risk assets

• In a crash, almost all asset correlation goes to 1

  • Diversification in that scenario won't protect your portfolio

• If you are in the derivatives market (IE – ETNs), you are taking credit risk from the issuer

• 2 types of safe havens. Nothing else is a safe haven.

  • Insurance (Left tail way OTM 30% puts)
  • Does very well in a crash
  • small loss during up market
  • has a high degree of confidence (not a lot of "noise")
  • Store of Value (Gold)
  • does ok in a crash
  • up/down during an up market
  • has a high degree of confidence
  • No counter party risk

• Safe Haven imposters - vulnerable in a crash, needs a lot of luck for that safe haven to pay off in a crash. Have a low degree of confidence it will pay off during a crash

  • Unsafe Haven
  • Hedge funds
  • long/short equity fund (can't time correctly)
  • High dividend stocks
  • REITs
  • Commodity index
  • Hopeful Haven
  • Value stocks
  • 10 - year bonds
  • VIX (difficult to time and it will punish you severely during a up market)
  • Silver

• The federal reserve low interest rates are causing investors to chase yield and creating distortions in the market

• You want to have money for when the liquidation of this malinvestment occurs so you can buy cheap equities

• Precious Metals/Gold are a great store of value

• Focus on your "dry powder"

• Investing in the stock market is a good idea, but you have to be careful. When interest rates are too low and there's too much money being printed by central banks, it can lead to malinvestment. Malinvestment is when people invest in things that aren't useful or valuable for society. That leads to crashes in the market.

  • Distorted markets are prone to crashes
  • So, stay out of them and wait for the distortions to pass before investing again.

• Tobin's Q (Misesian Stationary index) is a good measure of stock valuations. Market is fair valued at 1

  • It is the ratio of the market value of the companies/replacement cost of those business or total US corporate equity/total US corporate net worth. Lower number is better. High was 2.15 in 2000. 2021 is 2.75

• Tobin's Q has a direct inverse correlation with future stock returns. Higher number = lower returns. When financial markets are distorted, they carry the seeds of their own destruction. The inevitable bust that follows the boom is not an unexpected event.

• Basic premise is to stay out of the market for long periods of time when distortions are running high and wait for the inevitable collapse to purchase cheap equities. The objective of roundabout investing is not to make money now, but to position ourselves for better investment opportunities later

• The challenge to the Misesian strategy is that it requires contrarian thinking, to "zig" when the rest of the world is "zagging". You have to step back when the MS Index is high so you can act like a corporate raider when it is low

• Explosive Left Tail risk hedging (what Mark does) is very difficult for the average investor or even professional. Don't try it

• For the average retail investor, Cash is good when Tobins Q is high so you have "dry powder" for the inevitable collapse. You don't want to be shorting the market or in risk assets. This is difficult because you will watch the market go up while you are setting on the sidelines

• Benjamin Graham – "Many shall be restored that now are fallen and many shall fall that now are in honor."

Safe Havens

• Safe Haven – An asset that provides safety from risk
  • Risk is exposure to bad contingencies. Most of these will never happen, but they can and they can appear in any number of forms
  • Investment risk is the potential for loss, and the scope of that loss
    • A Safe haven asset is an investment that mitigates that risk to preserve and protect your capital. They are shelters from financial storms
• Safe haven investing is both a defensive measure to avert future loss and an offensive one to exploit future opportunities with "dry powder".
• A risk mitigation strategy must be cost effective. Anyone can develop a strategy that does well in a down market, but we must not have a cure that is worse than the disease
• Benjamin Graham – "The essence of investment management is the management of risks, not the management of returns."
• Do not attempt what Spitznagel does as a retail investor or even professional.
• Everett Klipp - "A small loss is a good loss." Risk mitigation and survival are everything in investing. Don't try to predict
• Investing needn't be about making grandiose forecasts. No one has a crystal ball
• A cost-effective safe haven doesn't just slash risk, it actually lets you take more risk in other parts of the portfolio
• Aristotle pointed out that, while it is easy to make a couple lucky rolls of a die, with 10,000 repeated rolls, the "luck" of the die evens out
• When your sample size is small, and even worse, unique and unrepeatable, no matter your subjective probabilities, there is so much noise in sample you can hardly know anything. You are hoping for good luck. Your Number (N) is 1
• But if your success or failure relying on many outcomes, over many rolls of the dice. Your Number (N) is large. You are acting as the "House" exploiting the house edge through repetition to quash randomness. The house doesn't gamble. We are as Poker theorist David Sklansky said, "at war with luck."
• Cost-effective risk mitigation or raising our compound growth rates (CAGR) and thus wealth through lower risk is really our comprehensive goal as investors.
• Golden Theorem – As you accumulate more and more data in a random sample, you should expect the sample's average to converge to the true average.
  • The more you roll a fair 6-sided die, the more the percentage of all those rolls in which you see any particular number will converge toward 1/6 or 16.66%
• It isn't just the single wager that matters, it is the iterative, multiplicative impact of that result on the next wager, and on the next! A large loss disproportionately lowers our geometric average return, because it leaves us with a much lower stake, or capital base to reinvest and compound on the next wager.
• We cannot only judge our decisions by their outcomes. As good decisions can have bad outcomes. But we only get 1 outcome.
• We have just one life (N=1), but our fate is a range of outcomes.
• The most intuitive way for us to think about the meaning of the expected geometric average return and, equivalently, the geometric average ending wealth outcome under multiplicative growth is simply as the expected median ending wealth outcome
• The geometric average return, rather than the arithmetic average return is close to what you should expect from random samples from all possible ending outcomes
• By giving all the weight to this path(N=1), we essentially need to have gotten pretty much every possible path right. We must be robust to the realized path or "covered all the bases." We don't know what "path" we are going to get
• Not all losses and not all risks are created equal, so not all risk mitigation is created equal
• We need a risk-mitigation strategy that makes our returns both more accurate and more precise to win the bloody "war with luck." We want a tighter grouping of our expected return or a reduced variance.
• You have 2 options for achieving this. The store of value method or the insurance method. These 2 strategies can be very different in their cost-effectiveness
• What makes something a safe haven vs a non-safe haven?
  • How does it do during a Crash? +/-
  • How does it do during normal times? +/-
  • What is the expected payoff during a crash and how does it achieve it?
• You have 3 different types of safe havens.
  • Store of Value – Fixed in time and space. Key is low to no correlation. It provides both a cushion and "dry powder" should a crash take place. It is basically a matter of diluting risk. Crash return is +/0, Non-Crash Return is +/-, and Payoff type is low correlation
  • Alpha – Is like store of value, but its correlation is now expected to be negative. That means during a crash, it is expected to generate a positive return. Think of the flight to quality we see during a crash. Crash return is +, non-Crash return is +/-, Payoff type is negative correlation
  • Insurance – What Mark Spitznagel does, don't try. Extreme version of the Alpha payoff. Needs to make a very large profit during a crash, relative to its expected losses the rest of the time. Needs to be highly convex to crashes or have an explosive payoff to justify its costs. Crash return is ++++, non-Crash return is -, Payoff type is "Convexity"
• Safe Havens can be exceedingly costly, so much so that, as a cure, they can be worse than the disease.
• Some safe havens require a very large asset allocation within the portfolio. The problem is large AA comes at a very large cost (drag) when times are good (which is most of the time). Gold has this problem.
• Strategic vs Tactical Safe Haven
  • Strategic – Mitigates systemic risks in a more fixed way and letting it play out
  • Tactical – Requires moving into and out of safe havens. This requires timing and short-term forecasting skill (which people don't have)
• The problem is no one possess a "crystal ball" to know when to do this.
  • If you risk-mitigation strategy requires a crystal ball to work, then you are doing it all wrong. Don't try to predict the market. Cost effective safe haven investing needs to be agnostic investing
• Cassandras typically and ironically lose more in their safety from looming crashes than those crashes would have even harmed them.
• Markets scare us more than they harm us
• Markets are very, very good at making us feel safe when we shouldn't and scared when we needn't
• Risk mitigation therefore needs to be a sustained way of life or habit, not a transient one
• Imposter Safe Havens
  • Hopeful
  • Unsafe
  • Diworsification (Diversification)
• Hopeful – Payoff is very unreliable. Requires a lot of luck to pay off in a crash. Sometimes requires good timing. It is like jumping out of an airplane with a parachute that only sometimes deploys, you are better off not wearing one in the first place and making a more informed decision. Crash return is (don't know??), non-Crash return is +/- and the Payoff type is "Fingers Crossed"
• Unsafe – This asset or strategy has so far always gone up, so it likely has a good story for why that should always be the case. This logic is then extended to their performance in a crash. They are often vulnerable in a crash, perhaps they have even shown some evidence of that vulnerability, but this doesn't change the optimism around their safe haven status. It is like jumping out of an airplane and thinking you can fly. Crash return is -, non-Crash return is +, and payoff type is "Always goes up so it must be safe"
• Diworsifier – Most common form you see in modern finance. It is pervasive throughout almost all investment portfolios. Diversification is fundamentally a dilution of risk, not a solution to risk. It is about evading risk. Diversification never tends to be as great (lower correlations) as it appears. When the investing herd heads for the exits in a crisis, most strategies and assets tend to get swept away. Strategies that were once uncorrelated, stable and liquid become the opposite of all those things as investors are forced to sell what they are able to, all at the same time. Diversification is "NOT A FREE LUNCH" as mentioned in modern finance theory. Crash return is -, non-Crash return is +, Payoff type is "Loses less, so it is worth it"
• Diversification lowers returns in the name of higher Sharpe ratios, some investors who use this strategy but aren't content with the lower returns are then forced to apply leverage in hopes of raising them back up. True risk mitigation should not require financial engineering and leverage in order to both lower risk and raise CAGR. Doing so adds a different kind of risk by magnifying the portfolio's sensitivity to errors in those correlation estimates.
• Aristotle – "The whole is not the same as the sum of its parts."
  • This is true in finance. You can move a portion of your portfolio to an asset with zero expected return and away from an asset with a high expected return and raise the whole of your wealth, even though it lowered your average. All of this is due to compounding. Key Point of Book!!!
• The properties emerge from the interactions of those component assets as they are rebalanced and compounded. Safe Havens adding so much ending wealth to the portfolio (geometric return) is due to the iterative nature of the game. They provide capital for the next "dice roll" by resetting or rebalancing the size of the wager at the end of each "dice roll". Safe havens can thus top up or feed the wagers in the main game (large part of portfolio), particularly if the previous roll resulted in a big loss, without costing the frequent positive wagers enough to matter. The assets now interact, rather than act independently. Thus, an entirely new whole is formed, one that is very different from the sum of its parts.
• If we only look at the way that things happened and obsess over it as the only likely outcome, then we are engaged in naïve empiricism. IE - we over-extrapolate the past
• To avoid that we need to look at the past in the context of the many other paths that COULD HAVE happened, but never did, as well as our sensitivities to those outcomes
• Most investors add a risk-mitigation strategy for its effect, but don't properly account for the cost paid to gain that effect and thus don't account for the net portfolio effect
• There is always this risk-mitigation tension or tradeoff between the two contrary forces of cost and effectiveness (IE – arithmetic costs and geometric return). That tradeoff is between lower arithmetic returns (costs) as payment for the geometric pickup (effect). There is NO FREE LUNCH!!! But if can tilt that tradeoff in your favor, with an effect that outpaces the costs resulting in a positive net portfolio effect, then risk mitigation on net raises compounding and consequently, wealth. This is cost effective risk mitigation.
• Remember, anyone can develop an asset or strategy that does well in a crash, the trick though is to do it while also raising the median return. Most risk mitigation strategies fail this portion
• We cannot judge the cost effectiveness of a given risk mitigation strategy on its own, in a vacuum, based solely on its attributes.
• The bigger the crash bang for the buck, the less that is needed and the less its potential drag or cost when it isn't needed.
• Mechanical vs Statistical payoff
  • Mechanical – is one that happens as a direct, intrinsic consequence. IE – an option going into the money from out of the money. It must go up in value.
  • Statistical – is one that only tends to be so, based on observed history, but it needn't be so. It is more extrinsic and thus noisier. This would be like a flight to quality or safety that we see during a crash
• You also have other possibilities for payoff warping, like counterparty risk (or the risk of not getting paid). Gold bullion has no counter park risk.
• The question to ask yourself is do you need a lot of things to go right for a safe-haven to be effective? Is their history a good guide to their future, or is everything always different?
• An ideal safe-haven is more mechanical but real-world payoffs tend to be much less so. They tend to fall somewhere on a spectrum between mechanical and statical.
• Not Safe Havens
  • VIX futures – Volatility index but they are always in contango which causes them to have a very steep "roll" making them a really bad trade
  • High-Dividend Stocks
  • Hedge Funds
  • Fine Art
  • US Farmland
• Only 2 safe havens are worthy of that name – Gold and Equity Tail Hedge
• Store of Value
  • Cash (3-Month Treasury Bill) – Less interest rate risks than longer dated maturities. Not a safe haven
  • 10-20 Year Bonds (Typical of "Balanced" portfolio) – More interest rate risks vs shorter maturities (as of 2021 those rates are extremely low which hurts their current safe haven status), classic flight to safety asset when things turn bad for the stock market and the economy. They are a hopeful haven or a Diworsification
• Alpha
  • CTA (Commodity Trading Advisors) – Active managed strategies (usually hedge funds) and trend following strategies. Attempt to capture Alpha by using momentum. Other derivatives-based strategies use similar strategies like long volatility and generic tail hedging. Not a safe haven
• Insurance
  • Gold – Hedge against the banking system. No counter party risk. Historically thought of as a hedge against inflation. But, is a very noisy hedge against inflation. It is mostly tied to movements in real interest rates (When inflation goes up faster than nominal interest rates, real rates go down, pushing up gold prices). Mildly explosive crash (market down 15%) payoff on average (30% in the 1970's and 7% since) but, it has had a very wide range of returns since the 1970's. Gold is all about investors' expectations of value, it has no yield and has no intrinsic value. It is for that reason impossible to fundamentally value. Its payoff profile is largely statistical as expected. During the 1970's, golds payoff profile made it very cost effective as a safe haven, outside of that, gold has been much less cost effective. Gold has required a tactical call regarding inflation or real interest rates in order to be a cost-effective safe haven. This means we need certain things to go right for gold to be an effective safe haven in mitigating systemic risk (of a crash), much less cost-effective. The amount of gold needed to fully hedge our portfolio is very high adding to its carry costs.
  • Generic Tail Risk Hedge Strategy – A Barrons Article Mark wrote describes an extremely simplified version of his strategy. He does not describe his strategy is this book in any way. He says the academics are right when they say generic tail risk hedging fails to increase portfolio returns. He does not recommend using this strategy. Each month spend a fixed amount of capital on way OTM four month puts on S+P 500 futures (with a straightforward constraint to avoid the priciest options) and mechanically delta hedge those; the puts are kept until expiration or sold if the explode to a high level.
• Cryptocurrencies – Some people are saying that Cryptocurrencies are "Digital Gold" and destined to take golds role, but their payoff profiles are currently too sparse and too noisy evaluate intelligently (though the early indication is that they look more like unsafe havens or a hopeful haven at best.) Cryptocurrencies are thought of as insurance policies against the failure of central bankers. This, by extension, has also given them the presumed role of being an insurance policy against economic crises. Cryptos are a significant technology platform (the blockchain). They are like secure, virtual safety deposit boxes that only you can access. It will change the world. But the stuff inside those boxes, just by virtue of the secure, convenient, cool boxes, is now presumed to have value – by decree or fiat (The Austrian economist Robert Murphy argues that in Mises framework, we have no choice but to call all crypto fiat currencies.) Worst of all, as a highly speculative vehicle, it is symptom of the liquidity-fueled environment that crated it.
• Article from Mark Spitznagel from Mises Institute titled Why Cryptocurrencies Will Never Be Safe Havens - Every further new high in the price of Bitcoin brings ever more claims that it is destined to become the preeminent safe haven investment of the modern age — the new gold. But there's no getting around the fact that Bitcoin is essentially a speculative investment in a new technology, specifically the blockchain. Think of the blockchain, very basically, as layers of independent electronic security that encapsulate a cryptocurrency and keep it frozen in time and space — like layers of amber around a fly. This is what makes a cryptocurrency "crypto." That's not to say that the price of Bitcoin cannot make further (and further…) new highs. After all, that is what speculative bubbles do (until they don't). Bitcoin and each new initial coin offering (ICO) should be thought of as software infrastructure innovation tools, not competing currencies. It's the amber that determines their value, not the flies. Cryptocurrencies are a very significant value-added technological innovation that calls directly into question the government monopoly over money. This insurrection against government-manipulated fiat money will only grow more pronounced as cryptocurrencies catch on as transactional fiduciary media; at that point, who will need government money? The blockchain, though still in its infancy, is a really big deal. While governments can't control cryptocurrencies directly, why shouldn't we expect cryptocurrencies to face the same fate as what started happening to numbered Swiss bank accounts (whose secrecy remain legally enforced by Swiss law)? All local governments had to do was make it illegal to hide, and thus force law-abiding citizens to become criminals if they fail to disclose such accounts. We should expect similar anti-money laundering hygiene and taxation among the cryptocurrencies. The more electronic security layers inherent in a cryptocurrency's perceived value, the more vulnerable its price is to such an eventual decree. Bitcoins should be regarded as assets, or really equities, not as currencies. They are each little business plans — each perceived to create future value. They are not stores-of-value, but rather volatile expectations on the future success of these business plans. But most ICOs probably don't have viable business plans; they are truly castles in the sky, relying only on momentum effects among the growing herd of crypto-investors. (The Securities and Exchange Commission is correct in looking at them as equities.) Thus, we should expect their current value to be derived by the same razor-thin equity risk premiums and bubbly growth expectations that we see throughout markets today. And we should expect that value to suffer the same fate as occurs at the end of every speculative bubble. If you wanted to create your own private country with your own currency, no matter how safe you were from outside invaders, you'd be wise to start with some pre-existing store-of-value, such as a foreign currency, gold, or land. Otherwise, why would anyone trade for your new currency? Arbitrarily assigning a store-of-value component to a cryptocurrency, no matter how secure it is, is trying to do the same thing (except much easier than starting a new country). And somehow it's been working. Moreover, as competing cryptocurrencies are created, whether for specific applications (such as automating contracts, for instance), these ICOs seem to have the effect of driving up all cryptocurrencies. Clearly, there is the potential for additional cryptocurrencies to bolster the transactional value of each other—perhaps even adding to the fungibility of all cryptocurrencies. But as various cryptocurrencies start competing with each other, they will not be additive in value. The technology, like new innovations, can, in fact, create some value from thin air. But not so any underlying store-of-value component in the cryptocurrencies. As a new cryptocurrency is assigned units of a store-of-value, those units must, by necessity, leave other stores-of-value, whether gold or another cryptocurrency. New depositories of value must siphon off the existing depositories of value. On a global scale, it is very much a zero-sum game. Or, as we might say, we can improve the layers of amber, but we can't create more flies. This competition, both in the technology and the underlying store-of-value, must, by definition, constrain each specific cryptocurrency's price appreciation. Put simply, cryptocurrencies have an enormous scarcity problem. The constraints on any one cryptocurrency's supply are an enormous improvement over the lack of any constraint whatsoever on governments when it comes to printing currencies. However, unlike physical assets such as gold and silver that have unique physical attributes endowing them with monetary importance for millennia, the problem is that there is no barrier to entry for cryptocurrencies; as each new competing cryptocurrency finds success, it dilutes or inflates the universe of the others. The store-of-value component of cryptocurrencies — which is, at a bare-minimum, a fundamental requirement for safe haven status — is a minuscule part of its value and appreciation. After all, stores of value are just that: stable and reliable holding places of value. They do not create new value, but are finite in supply and are merely intended to hold value that has already been created through savings and productive investment. To miss this point is to perpetuate the very same fallacy that global central banks blindly follow today. You simply cannot create money, or capital, from thin air (whether it be credit or a new cool cryptocurrency). Rather, it represents resources that have been created and saved for future consumption. There is simply no way around this fundamental truth. Viewing cryptocurrencies as having safe haven status opens investors to layering more risk on their portfolios. Holding Bitcoins and other cryptocurrencies likely constitutes a bigger bet on the same central bank-driven bubble that some hope to protect themselves against. The great irony is that both the libertarian supporters of cryptocurrencies and the interventionist supporters of central bank-manipulated fiat money both fall for this very same fallacy. Cryptocurrencies are a very important development, and an enormous step in the direction toward the decentralization of monetary power. This has enormously positive potential, and I am a big cheerleader for their success. But _caveat emptor_—thinking that we are magically creating new stores-of-value and thus a new safe haven is a profound mistake.

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Rising Institutional Adoption, Bullish Momentum Send Bitcoin (BTC) Closer to $50,000 Resistance

Bitcoin continues to surge as the bulls eye $50,000 figure as the next major resistance. 

Bitcoin Close to Smashing Through $50,000

Premier cryptocurrency bitcoin has been on a steady rise for the past few weeks and if the momentum is anything to go by, it won’t be long before the $50k resistance is smashed for good.

The surge in price has also been supported by several bullish technical indicators such as the recent “golden cross” pattern where a short-term moving average goes above the long-term moving average.

In addition to the aforementioned, the orange coin has displayed a strong recovery including its movement past its 200-day moving average earlier this month hinting that the psychological resistance of $50,000 might be in cards for the bulls to conquer soon.

Further, the total market cap of bitcoin has also risen above $900 billion and looks to capture the $1 trillion market cap once again.

Institutional Adoption on the Rise

The rise in bitcoin’s price can be attributed to the rapid pace of institutional adoption of the largest cryptocurrency by market cap.

Of late, a number of institutional investors have been warming up to bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and a reliable store of value to tackle any ‘black swan’ events.

A trend started by business intelligence firm MicroStrategy, a greater number of corporations are following suit to add crypto assets to their balance sheet to diversify their asset holdings.

As the close followers of the industry might remember, Elon Musk’s Tesla announced earlier this year that the company had bought BTC worth a whopping $1.5 billion and that the company would also allow customers to pay for Tesla models with bitcoin.

However, soon enough the company discontinued the service citing bitcoin’s energy-intensive mining. Fortunately enough, however, at the recently concluded ‘The B-Word’ conference, Musk said that Tesla would ‘most likely’ resume the bitcoin payments service soon.

Similarly, Wall Street giants have also been vying to add bitcoin to their list of offerings on the back of the rising demand from accredited investors and private clients.

As recently reported by BTCManager, Wells Fargo had filed for a passive bitcoin fund with the U.S. SEC.

​

https://btcmanager.com/institutional-bullish-bitcoin-btc-50000-resistance/

At what point in the transaction using SPEDN is the cryptocurrency converted in fiat?

With regards to a taxable event, does the actual conversion of crypto to fiat occur on the side of the consumer, or the merchant?

When I pay with (for example) Bitcoin using SPEDN, there is no indication on the app that I am actually converting the crypto into fiat - from what I can tell, the actual conversion takes place on the side of the merchant accepting the collateralized coins. (They scan the QR code and it takes my Bitcoin from my wallet)