I view Bitcoin as the most secure, transparent, immutable, censorship resistant and global currency that has ever existed.
I will propose a scenario to discuss the limitations and usecases of Bitcoin in such a scenario. Its an extremely detailed outlook on my view of how the most likely and realistic scenario of a nuclear showdown would happen, that could happen at any point from today.
The main assumptions is that it's 2018-9; so any suggested technology must be available to use now. You can include things like LN, you may be asked if they have been successfully tested on the main net, but you will need to describe how the current limitations are overcome in your use case.
My scenario will provide the potential global events and the examination of their impacts. Please feel free to critique the liklihood or present your ideas.
It's November 2018\19 and the war in Syria is almost neutralised, the country is in tremendous dispair and disrepair. Syrians blame Israel for the whole ordeal, and civilians are vengeful. The Israeli President gets assassinated by a Syrian dual national on a state visit to Russia, sparking an international escalation involving Russia and the US. The Israeli government and Mossad confirm the identity of the assassin and place blame the Syrian regime for stoking the attack, but remain composed. Israel, launches a 'pre-emptive' strike on Syria, with some success, but allot is repealed, one f35 is shot down with Russian Air defense.
Escalation continues with the US pledging a nuclear powered, aircraft carrier and accompaning fleet off Israels Coast in aid. Russia also a-symmetrically increases presence in Syria, with submarines and anti air support.
Skirmishes between the two intensify, for a number of weeks, with no side willing to make a ground offensive. One month passes and foreign navies have arrived to provide support.
This causes the stalemate to escalate with the launch of prototype KH-47, from a Russian sub 260 miles away, sinking US neuclear aircraft carrier; causing the reactor to become unstable, contaminating the surrounding coastlines; Russian sub is also caught by Destroyer and severely damaged, political tensions increase to near full scale confrontations. Neighbouring countries try to protect their own interests, and protests happen globally.
Due to contamination in the Mediterranean Sea, international trade routes are sevearly effected, especially around the Suez.
In retaliation a saturated tactical semi neuclear tomahawk battery is launched into Syria, from US warships, aircraft, as well as Israel and Saudi Arabia. With 250 tomahawks deployed, as well 150 decoys (400 total), 10 are nuclear tipped. Of these Russian/Syrian air defences detonate 7 of the 10 Nuclear tomahawks in mid flight. War between major powers is officially declared. Emergency dialogue between world leaders ensues.
The three that hit their targets cause a sizeable amount of destruction similar to Hiroshima. But added with the fallout of the 7 detonated mid flight, radiation levels in the area become dangerous. Fatalities from radiation poisoning across the entire Middle East start happening. And people seeking refuge head to the Turkish border or Greece by boat.
Fallout severely disrupts power and communications networks in the Middle East.
The global economy tanks. The only companies that do well are those producing munitions. A run on the Bank ensues.
More contamination causes severe disruption and stops all shipping trade in the area. A global recession ensues. Trade embargoes are placed on Russia, Syria, Iran and China.
China responds by having a naval blockade around Taiwan. Iran responds by launching a servo of nuclear ICBMs but none hit their targets. Although repealed by Isreals iron dome, the amount of nuclear fallout caused by detonations leads to a large number of casualties, as well as over 10,000,000 tonnes of radioactive fallout, entering the jet stream. This fallout is carried East by the Jet Stream crossing over India, China, Russia and even over the Pacific ocean where low levels of contamination can even be measured over mainland US.
Global agricultural output of some countries is slashed by up to 75%, depending on the amount of contact with fallout. Some parts of the middle East are almost completely barren.
US retaliation over Taiwan blockade escalates to US and Japanese aerial and naval incursions to try and establish a supply line. China shoots down a jet, tensions increase.
EU and Nato launch a trade embargo on China, Russia and radioactive foods. China tipples defence spending, and increases military presence near Taiwan and at African naval bases. Internet passthrough to services in Nato are also cut off from the rest of the world. Majority of traffic too and from VPNs are identified and taken down, due to security concerns. Global Internet infrastructure becomes more and more localised. International communications becomes near impossible.
Israel tries to goad Syria into a ground offensive. Russia sends neuclear hypersonic nuclear missile battery in aid of Syria as well as Air defence systems, transported by air. Israel attempts to engage shipments and is successful on one occasion.
UNSC unilaterally calls for a cease fire, China vetos the bill.
A US, Japanese and South Korean naval detachment attempt to send provide support to Taiwan. A naval battle ensues. Due to Chinese support from the mainland, China repels attack.
Taiwan government reluctantly succeeds to Mainland China due to famine caused by naval blockade. US responds via nuclear tomahawk strike on Spratly islands in South China Sea. The majority of this attack is repled by Chinas HQ SAM systems, but now nuclear fallout has doubled.
China responds by sending troops to South Korean border, through North Korea. As well as a Naval detachment to the Spratly Islands off the coast of the Philippines.
But now the amount of nuclear fallout in the atmosphere has doubled. By February the sky looks more grey, and as less sunlight is able to penetrate the atmosphere global average temperature is a degree lower.
Further UNSC meeting is called and countries draft a ceasefire plan. North Korea launches secret ground invasion of South Korea. Before a ceasefire could be ratified as they see this as the only opportunity they will have to unify Korea.
North Korea makes some headway, into the south. China retracts their support for North Korea, but keeps troops stationed within the country, the relationship deteriorates.
US and Japanese troops come to the aid of South Korea. And prevent further advancement of the North Korean army.
By July, its clear Global food levels are critically low. More than 40% of people globally will struggle to find more than one meal every day.
UNSC talks regarding ceasefire, resume. In return for ceasefire, China demands Taiwan, in exchange for the deposition of Kim Jong Un. UNSC agrees, and Chinese Army attacks North Korean Army from behind, and over throws the DPRK government. Russia and China place new government there. Russia demands respirations for loss in Syrian conflicts from US and Israel, and both reach settlement agreement.
China, US, Russia, Japan, South Korea, Israel and Syria, sign peace treaty, 20 months after the assassination of the Israeli President.
The global economy implodes, as people no longer have faith in the US Dollar. Food shortages, continue, and crop yield gets worse for the next 2 years. People are forced to try and grow their own food locally. With some success.
Cancer is the cause of 2/3 of all deaths globally and the average life expectancy falls by 5 years on average.
What role does Bitcoin play in this global scenario? Does it even have a role? What alternate currencies would be used?
Why would people use Bitcoin over say the Euro or Yuan for international trade?
And what about civilians, if communication\networks become localised, would people still use Bitcoin? And if so how would they connect to a global main net?
What parts of my scenario sound right? Which parts sound wrong?
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