I’ve been doing some reading and checking out the data and it doesn’t look like the number of daily active addresses will be increasing. The adjusted daily transaction volume is plateauing. The lightning network appears to be a failure as evidenced by a number of its statistics. Bakkt will go live soon but that’s already priced in probably, and it may not even have a positive effect on bitcoin. There aren’t any hopeful candidates for a bitcoins etf. Legitimate bitcoin custodians already exist and that hasn’t had an noticeable positive impact on the price. It’s true that the price could shoot up with some strong momentum if there is a FOMO event again, but with the possibility for shorting with futures contracts even that is limited. And I don’t even know what could cause that kind of event now. Bitcoins price isn’t even exponential. It appears to follow a pattern of being log-linear for short periods before it adjusts and it’s long term upwards trend decreases, culminating in a plateau (now).
Where’s the reason to hope? I’m not trying to bash bitcoin because I want it to succeed and I want a reason to put more money into it.
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