The Bitcoin had rally last week that went from $8,600 to $9,722 before settling at around $9,500. It formed a lower high compared to the previous peak at $10,045 the week before, signaling a potential reversal of the bullish trend related to the Bitcoin halving event.
If there is not enough buying power to push the BTC price above $10,000 next week, it could potentially test the support at $9,100 before bouncing back to the $9,200 to $9,600 range. Watch for an entry signal if the price breaks below the support level (lower Keltner band) as indicated in the hourly chart.
Review of the week:
Although Bitcoin‘s price has bounced back in this week after halving on Monday, Bitcoin network hashrate (the total computing power dedicated to mining blocks on the blockchain) has declined to 98 EH/s, compared 135 EH/s before Monday. The decline in the hashrate suggests some miners have scaled back or shut down operations following the halving of block rewards from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC, which makes returning a profit harder or impossible with older mining machines (depending on the price). The mean block interval time rose to 727 seconds or 12 minutes from 8.5 minutes in pre-halving period. Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA in New York said there’s going to be pressure for Bitcoin in the short term because the incentive is less for miners now to mine bitcoin and they will probably switch to more profitable cryptocurrencies. However, in a longer-term, with all the fiscal and monetary stimulus that’s being pumped into the global economy, there’s renewed interest from institutional traders looking for alternatives to modern government-backed currencies. A recent research paper examined the relationship between Bitcoin, global economic activity, equity markets, and foreign exchange markets, while also concluded that Bitcoin does not exhibit any significant relationship with economic activity (BDI), equity markets (DJIA) or the foreign exchange (USD-Euro, USD-Yen) markets in either bullish or bearish regimes. It suggested that Bitcoin may offer some hedging to diversification potential in the global portfolio investments.
Disclaimer: The above market commentary is based on technical analysis using historical pricing data, and is for reference only. It does not serve as investment or trading advice.
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