NFLX Miss

For Trading JULY 17th

NFLX Misses, Poor Guidance

NASDAQ Still Weaker

ECONOMIC #S STRONG

Today’s market got off to soft a start with the NASDAQ futures down as much (points, 2.4X percent) and all of the averages fell to the lows of the early trade in the first 15 minutes and the only one NOT to rally was the NASDAQ. It continued lower for another 2 hours and finally made it back to the high of the day around 1:30, although still down and fell to a new low by 3:00 but rallied into the close to finish -136.39 (.50%), NASDAQ -76.66 (.73%), S&P 500 -10.99 (.34%), the Russell -10.71 (.72%), and the DJ Transports +53.95 (.55%). The DJIA was 17:13 Down with the big losers being BA -63DP’s, AAPL -33, MSFT -29 and V -21 DP’S. The overall internals 7:6 down on the NYSE and 3:2 on the NASDAQ while volume was slightly lower.

The early morning employment numbers were better with initial claims 1.3million and continuing claims 17.338. Retail sales gained 7.5% vs 5.2 expected, ex-autos and gas they were 6.7%. Business inventories were in-line at 2.3 and NAHB housing index was 72 +14 vs 62 expected. All in all, a good showing, even if the market didn’t react to the upside.

Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also did this video titled “How to survive being an options trader and not blow up your account,” over the long weekend. I think it’s highly informative as a guide to stock selection and option choices. The link is https://youtu.be/Y7H9RpWfLlo Enjoy!!

Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/kCN9QYyQnWc

SECTORS: NFLX was the feature this afternoon with a disappointing report after the close. While they had a beat on earnings, it wasn’t as good as the “whisper number” and the forward guidance for Q3 was a major miss. The stock had closed $527.39 +4.13 (.79%) but immediately fell to $449.65 before bouncing back a bit to its current level of $473.00 -54.49 (10.33%). PPG reported with a beat on lowered expectations, always an issue for me, while the year over year sales were lower by 24%. Nonetheless, the stock, well off the March low of $70, closed 115.26 -.36 but rallied up to the current level of $120.02 +4.80 (4.17%). The airlines and cruise lines gave up all of yesterday’s pointless gains when the CDC said that there would be no cruise ships in U.S. waters until at least October. This sent the big 3 down with NCLH the big loser -16%, CCL -9.8% and RCL -7.6%. Airlines fared no better with AAL, who sent out 25,000 layoff warnings -7.4%, LUV -4.3%, DAL -4.7% and JBLU -4.6%. After the close AAL and JBLU announced a customer-share agreement to help in the Northeast. I can’t emphasize this enough, at least one or two of these companies will chapter. All of the equity and debt being raised will saddle these companies and mortgage all of their assets. It does not add anything to their ability to create earnings, but just to survive until things get back to “normal,” whatever that actually means.

FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN -.15, BGS +.35, FLO unch., CPB +.34, CAG -.15, MDLZ +.94, KHC +1.25, CALM -.39, JJSF +1.85, SAFM +1.38, HRL +.71, SJM +.20, PPC +.09, KR -.10, and PBJ $32.39 +.09 (.28%).

BIOPHARMA was LOWER with BIIB -4.07, ABBV -.58, REGN -.53, ISRG -3.80, GILD -.24, MYL -.14, TEVA -.44, VRTX -4.55, BHC -.34, INCY -2.67, ICPT +1.43, LABU -2.10, and IBB $140.70 -1.92 (1.35%).

CANNABIS: was LOWER with TLRY -.15, CGC -.06, CRON -.17, GWPH -.17, ACB -.73, CURLF -.18, KERN -.27, and MJ $13.35 -.29 (2.13%).

DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +1.24, GD +2.25, TXT -.15, NOC +2.89, BWXT +.77, TDY +1/05, RTX -.84, and ITA $163.47 -1.72 (1.04%).

RETAIL: was HIGHER with M -.32, JWN -.17, KSS +.23, DDS +.42, WMT +.85, TGT +.27, TJX +.62, RL +.41, UAA +.05, LULU +.57, TPR -.22, CPRI +.10, and XRT $45.68 +.29 (.64%).

FAANG and Big Cap: were LOWER with GOOGL -11.88, AMZN -42.84, AAPL -5.75, FB -.39, NFLX -43.68, NVDA -5.24, TSLA -57.97, BABA -6.21, BIDU -1.77, CMG -3.65, CAT +.19, BA -9.44, DIS -1.92, and XLK $106.31 -1.33 (1.24%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES.

FINANCIALS were MIXED with GS -2.40, JPM +.28, BAC -.75, MS +1.48, C -.36, PNC +2.07, AIG +.78, TRV +1.36, AXP -1.28, V -3.11, and XLF $24.15 UNCH.

OIL, $40.93 -.47. Oil was lower in last night’s trading before we rallied in the morning. I mentioned in last night’s charts with comments section in the Weekly Strategies letter, prices are trying to work higher towards $45.00. We needed a close over the previous high close of $40.83 and we finally did that today. The stocks were LOWER with XLE $37.21 -.17 (.45%).

GOLD $1,800.30 -13.50. It was a continuation rally and a new recovery high of $1,829.80. I have only the NEM August 65 / 70 spread on in the Gold market while we have been back in the Silver (SLV) calls @ $ .92 from Friday. Silver rallied from a down overnight session and the calls closed $1.10 -.30. We also added a GLD 7/24 170 call position @ $1.22 that finished $ .79 -.76.

BITCOIN: closed $9,145 -45. After trading back to 8985 we rallied back to close – only $5. Since last week we have closed between 9200 – 92.85 every day with narrow ranges and today was a good start to move higher. A break over 10,000 still sends us higher. We added 350 shares of GBTC @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $9.31 - .16 today.

Tomorrow is another day.

CAM