A decade to hyperbitcoinization is "most likely," says Kraken executive Dan Held, a forecast echoed by Unchained Capital's Parker Lewis.
Bitcoin (BTC) may be just 10 years away from seeing mass adoption in an event known as "hyperbitcoinization."
That's according to participants of the Bitcoin 2021 conference in Miami, who on June 4 delivered surprisingly optimistic verdicts on when hyperbitcoinization will come.
Bitcoin could be unit of account by 2031
Speaking on a panel, The Bitcoin Standard author Saifedean Ammous, Unchained Capital head of business development Parker Lewis and Kraken growth lead Dan Held all gave their deadlines for when Bitcoin will effectively take over global finance.
"I'd say a decade," Lewis began.
"I think that based on how Bitcoin has been adopted historically and based on the trillions of dollars that the Fed is going to have to print in the coming months to years, that it would potentially be conservative to say that Bitcoin's a unit of account in 10 years."
That would involve the Bitcoin network onboarding billions of new users by 2031, but as the panel noted, the rate of adoption since 2011 has already produced hundreds of millions of Bitcoiners.
"I'm going to be a little more conservative than Parker and say maybe 15 years to 16 years — you know, four more halving cycles," Ammous continued.
His perspective is similar to that of PlanB, creator of the stock-to-flow Bitcoin price models, who previously estimated that after several halving cycles, it will become impossible to measure Bitcoin's price in dollars. This is because as a currency with no bottom, the potential for Bitcoin to grow in U.S. dollar terms is infinite.
Hyperbitcoinization by 2026 is "unlikely" but possible
"I would say at least a decade for hyperbitcoinization would be the most likely and actually conservative estimate," Held concluded.
"If we do have an event where there's rapid devaluation of fiat currency, Bitcoin starts to surge or gets close to $1 million per Bitcoin — a supercycle-esque moment — then we could see it much sooner, maybe five to six years or so. But that would be a very unlikely outcome. I think it could happen, but it's not likely to happen."
As Cointelegraph reported, the stock-to-flow model predicts an average BTC/USD price of either $100,000 or $288,000 this halving cycle, depending on which type of model is used.
So far, PlanB has remained unfazed by the recent rout that took over 50% of Bitcoin's value off its latest all-time highs of $64,500.
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