1.0 THE DCI30 INDEX:
1:34pm pst: a week ago we were -62.4%, so since then we have risen >4% again.
Reference for more info about the DCI30:
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At present I am 100% short, 0% long. We have moved concertedly up across the (new in 2023) -65% SharkLine, and so find ourselves squarely in Short Country.
Longs, when taken, are kept on a very short leash (no pun intended).
Short end of the scales are less compressed (=more run room).
Long side of the scales have had their ranges expanded (=more run room).
I typically use ETH as my short in a 50/50 book, (currently from the >1600 zone). When BTC gets exuberant (acts ETH like), I add it to the short quiver as well. (I am short both as I type this.)
Dry powder here is >50% as I continue to build a core short position....balance is saved for outlier events on the DDT Ladders, (like the epic pump today).
Sizing on a scale of 1 (low) to 10 (max): longs 1, shorts 1-3.
All tides have turned positive as ATOM the canary signaled weeks ago.
Chart 1.2 is used to assess future probability, as foretold by AltCoin Canary Atom, which is a quality Alt. By comparing the energetic ALT to the stodgier ETH and BTC macrocaps, we can often pick up on trend changes earlier.
I am definitely surprised by the ummpah being placed behind the latest SKYNET broad pump/bear rally in play here-but mine is not to wonder why, mine is just to chart the data and try baby try. :)
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I am of the camp that believes the SBF Follies have not yet gotten "properly" underway. Perhaps they won't, though I doubt that. Exchanges are experiencing massive month over month withdrawals, and the party looks pretty over. The US FEDS are on a witch hunt rampage now, and the press is selling this hard (negative) at every op. Not good gang. This time IS different, in so many meaningful ways. SKYNET seems bent on creating a FOMO Campaign to capture the January Flag, and I am definitely not buying it. I will trade long if there is some runway there, but nowhere else-and certainly not up here in the BTC >22k nosebleed seats.
Lacking a crystal ball, I have no idea on event or timing. All I can do is watch the data, and see if the narrative unfolds. We can limp along like this for a while, but a trap door can open any minute. My 2 cents is: yeah, there is a LOT of blue sky overhead-but it takes a LOT of cash in net, to get us there. Is that cash confident in this market? No. Panic selling on the other hand (of this latest "rally"), is a far simpler and crowd friendly proposition headed into February. The only market movement comes from the exchange whales (Binance) playing the pathetic 'come hither' pump/dump wash sale games, to a bunch of would be participants who have developed wash/sale shell shock syndrome.
This is a a real pit of vipers to trade. I am remiss to weight longs without a capitulation event to enter with, and careful about shorting in size-as SKYNET loves to clean the position clocks if you lay them out too vulnerably. Liquidity is going towards zero. This makes wild price swings du jour-and not indicative of much anything besides whale play. It has become down right inexpensive to manipulate the world market. We watch the cheaper ALTs (ATOM, etc) for the barometer on when manips will be coming to larger cap issues like BTC & ETH.
===> Light positioning at outlier extremes via ladder trade is an excellent way to trade this market.
I am concentrating on BTC & ETH, as they have some organic volume. SKYNET can very inexpensively push prices about 10-20% without breaking a sweat these days. This movement has zero to do with anything you can TA or DYOR-for it is nothing more than a clash of the exchange wash sale titans, ie: SKYNET Gangster$-seeking to rob the little guys protective settings. Hence my trading of outlier extremes in both directions.
The manip can be charted and worked, but there is no telling when SKYNET will pump an alternate reality for a time. You can pay SKYNET for the favor (use stop losses), or you can hunker down and hodl on through the move until it passes, (which is what I do 24/7).
My crypto outlook?
Market Down, no question. When? Any time! How far? -50% avg would not surprise me.
Pay attention to longer term averaged price data to see future potential. If the Tides keep flipping, I may have to move the Tide time base from 14 to 28 days, etc......to better represent actual trend, as opposed to the SKYNET flippancy of the day, (which is ruining the directional value use of the Tide Arrow Indicator).
So let's focus there below . . .
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1.1 THE ONE CHART THAT RULES THEM ALL: TIPS ETF
That dashed green line is DDT Day Trend OHR developed over a YEAR. The vertical blue is where tides are computed from.....2 weeks'ish back to date now.
CHART LINK: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/wNsPO8kT/
TIPs is now retracing from a concerted downtrend, this is building market support. January no longer looks like it will be a bust here . . . and as January goes, so goes the year as the old maxim counsels. We'll see....there is still 10 days left on this clock. ;)
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1.1.1 TIP et al Divergence Watch:
CHART LINK: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NfF1wY28/
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Coin Correlations have been weak/inconsistent generally with late 2022 broader markets:
CHART LINK: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/jYBlpfbm/
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1.2 THREE COIN MERGE/DURGE/PURGE MACRO VIEW:
HEADS Up-All Tides Now Positive!:
CHART LINK: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/kihTNtqA/
3 Coins To Represent This 'Lemmings Come Hither' Market: BTC (patriarch-white), ETH (matriarch-teal), ATOM (the energetic kids-blue).
If you heeded the long canary call from 12/27/2022, you are a happy camper. That is what this tool is for, assessing directional change probability in the future. Now watch ATOM, for as it goes, the others are likely to follow next.
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1.3 THE CRYPTO MARKET TREND SPOTTER: "BTC Watch"
LAST WEEK'S NOTE: "As called, we have a SKYNET pump-it is challenging the established declining pump high, and looks set up to take us back into OHR1 quickly."
And today-Bingo!, OHR1 has been hit and exceeded 1 week later.
What Skynet taketh away in Nov 2022 for "FTX/SBF", it hath now given back Jan 2023. (Quel supris? Mais non!)
Being Friday, the setup here vis a vis broader markets is clear: pump position is prime (again) into Saturday, possibly setting up an excellent Sellathon Sunday, (didn't happen last time, but that was a 3 day MLK weekend). Longs will run for at least 24hrs, if not beyond. SKYNET is once again hunting stop losses and LIQ's here. If you are a short player, once again prepare for hard defense. Leverage must once again be minimized.
CHART LINK: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/8wgeh9Uj/
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If you are an active or learning trader, I strongly recommend you read recent posts and their updates, as day to day I may not repeat important post items, only slather on new data as I find it. :)
There is a free treasure trove of information here, stuff you will find nowhere else, (original content):
https://www.reddit.com/r/DorothysDirtyDitch/comments/qrr32h/welcome_all_yee_broad_sword_scalpers/
Good Luck & Viva La Share-IF YOU SEE IT IN THE DATA, PLEASE CALL IT OUT, (no narratives por favor)!
\*\**
1.9 UPDATES FOLLOW, (trades I make are in comments section-posted when time permits):
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12.0 MISCELLANEOUS EVENT & DATA POST SECTION (ie: everything else goes here Virginia):
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SO not \"rally\" material . . . check out where 2021 sits!
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And The Skynet Paid Press is Singing For Its Supper!
OK Skynet Press, let's take your narrative BS apart with data:
This is BTC Price (upper section), vs BTC RSI. . .
Now ask yourself if YOU see this magical RSI "Recovery" Pattern in 2018. I will wait right here, wake me when you locate it. :)
The most telling horseplopper? Where is volume in this picture to confirm (or not) the allegation? Well gee, thought you'd never ask:
As you can see, nothing pencils-at all. It is as if one person drew charts, and asked another to make up a cute bedtime story (trade narrative), to go along with it. That is not analysis, that is marketing-and it is highly irresponsible marketing. You know, the type Cramer gets paid to do on the tele. :)
Thesis of article destroyed, when volume is added.
This is the recent period zoomed in upon, it's all there in the notes gang.
SUMMARY: reading the SKYNET Press is what got so many screwed post 11/2021. Just say no to people's printed price propaganda poo-poo. Better yet: do not even read it, and you won't have to. ;)
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Gee, I better not cross post this to r/Bitcoin, I will probably get permabanned for it. :) -d
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