Wednesday, July 26, 2023

Bitcoin Cash usage will probably be a step function event

Just thinking about adoption and our BCH network capacity.

One way we've been thinking about it is that adoption will organically increase over time as more use-cases, apps, and merchants grow. I agree with this, especially with cashtokens and the utility that will be built on that.

But I also think that actual use of BCH as money will occur during a crisis. This will be an event that will happen nearly overnight.

Liquidity will dry up and capital controls will be implemented. Debit cards will stop working, or will have very small daily limits. This will necessarily happen very fast because credit can disappear with a single precipitating event.

We need BCH to be able to scale from near zero use to potentially 100x or higher capacity within a few days.

These will be the most critical minutes and hours as everything will be broken. Bank withdraws will stop, bitcoin will stop working probably or have three to four figure fees (fees greater than your daily bank withdraw limit), exchanges will probably disable withdraws, and most AWS based cryptos will probably all start failing.

These critical moments are when we need Bitcoin Cash to work. These moments could define what everyone switches over to and defines what the new money is.

So I think we should be planning for this type of scenario rather than necessarily a smooth adoption scenario. Smooth adoption is fine, but money velocity increases not in good times but during crises.

If Bitcoin Cash is the only thing thats working, banks/corporations/institutions might even have to use it if nothing else works.


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