Sunday, August 24, 2025

Is the BTC price action an ominous sign for the equity market next week?

This is the suggested argument of known perma-bear Marko Kolanovic.

https://preview.redd.it/b2o1irv4m1lf1.png?width=1142&format=png&auto=webp&s=d04c1c8cd2f087aae9ee544cc7fe553cc50ba287

 

Do I think this is true?

Well, not really, no. 

I am not saying that it's not possible that we can get a little give back as the market digests Friday's rally before continuing higher, but I wouldn't say that bitcoin is foreshadowing anything here. 

Firstly, Bitcoin is well known as having relative weakness right now in crypto. The poster boy right now is Ethereum, not bitcoin and we have seen a rotation of many legacy whale accounts of assets into ethereum.

So to see bitcoin fade the gains from Friday is not necessarily a massive surprise. 

To make any implication from it, we should be seeing the whole of crypto down, but it';s not.ETH touched ATH today and then rejected it because it is such a significant level. 

Since Friday, it is UP not DOWN. 

Other alt coins such as Solana etc are basically flat.

it's just bitcoin mostly right now. And that's because of a combination of firstly, liquidations, and secondly a rotation from bitcoin into Ethereum.

But anyone bearish bitcoin right now btw in my opinion is silly. This is literally how bitcoin tends to trade. Flat, doing nothing then a massive move up/down, before more flat again. 

This is especially true in Summer. There is nothing unusual happening here, and certainly nothing strange when you consider that all the volume is going to Eth.

This BTW is because of the GENIUS act. Stablecoins like USDC typically run on Eth so this does massively increase the use case of the network. So it is worth having some exposure to ethereum here if you haven't already, but you shouldn't write off Bitcoin.

In the crypto space, Bitcoin is the old man, moves slower and more measured, but is still trending higher.

Ideally I would have liked to have seen a weekly close above the 9W EMA, it doesn't look like we will get that, but we are holding support for now.

https://preview.redd.it/a1esxmz6m1lf1.png?width=2316&format=png&auto=webp&s=805b2485ab4afd8152a590a78c3d2d8651638516

And we did break support at one point in June, before a 7% move higher the following week.

Long story short, I wouldn't read too much into it. Just your average liquidiation event it seems, with a bit of a rotation into ETH as well. ETH is still strong so for me, there's little to takeover into the equity space in terms of read through. 


No comments:

Post a Comment