What's helping this morning:
Oil is easing. Brent fell about 2% to around $107 after the US waived some sanctions on Russian oil. That's still high, though: another tanker reportedly hit a mine in the Strait of Hormuz, so shipping risk hasn't gone away.
Yields dipped slightly. The 10-year Treasury is around 5.08%. High safe yields have been one of the biggest weights on crypto this month.
AI stocks are rebounding after last week's sharp sell-off. Crypto has been trading closely with tech.
What's still weighing on it:
Last week's hot inflation numbers are why BTC slid from $84K to under $80K. The Fed raised rates in September and meets again October 27–28.
Bitcoin ETFs are still seeing outflows, but much smaller ones. The 5-day average is about -$46M a day, versus -$136M the week before.
Lookonchain flagged wallets linked to miner MARA moving about 1,000 BTC to exchanges over five days. Moving coins to an exchange isn't the same as selling, but it's worth watching.
5 events this week:
Wednesday (Oct 21): Meta and Tesla earnings, a big test for tech sentiment
Wednesday: the weekly EIA oil inventory report
Thursday: weekly jobless claims
Friday: early October PMI readings (business activity plus price pressure)
Friday 10 AM ET: final University of Michigan consumer sentiment. The early read was very weak (46.3), with inflation expectations at 4.7%.
The levels I'm watching: BTC needs a daily close above about $87,400 to make a new 30-day high, which is where trend-following systems start buying again. On the downside, the 200-day average sits around $72,400. BTC is still about 14% above it, so the longer-term uptrend is intact even after last week's shakeout.
What's your read: was $80K the bottom for October, or does the Fed meeting bring one more flush?
Why I track all this: I run an automated grid bot on my own Coinbase account, and choppy weeks like this one, with price swinging up and down, are when it does its work. The bot I use is GoBabyTrade. I share it here, and yes, I earn from referrals. Details: https://automatedcryptotrader.com
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