Sunday, January 17, 2021

CMV: Bitcoin is a Ponzi Scheme

Bitcoin has no intrinsic value beyond it's mining cost and it's cash market value is far in excess of it's cost to mine.

It follows a familiar cyclical hype pattern of every few years of being pumped and dumped.

Hype is created by a market event (the latest being an number of trading platforms like PayPal jumping on board), a bunch of people buy in, pushing the traded cash value up, then those who bought in the last cycle sell down and take their cash gainz, at the expense of those who just bought in, until the next cycle - where those who HODL may have the opportunity to recoup their losses.

People make money from trading BTC - and that money is made from those who have bought in late to the scheme on that particular cycle.

"Money is never created, it only changes hands"

The only difference between BTC pump-and-dump an a traditional Ponzi or Pyramid scheme is that Bitcoin is cyclical - whereas a normal Ponzi or Pyramid scheme is "one shot" (i.e. it collapses after the first dump cycle - as confidence in the scheme collapses).

The fact that BTC is a market instrument differentiates it from a one-shot "scheme" and allows it to be an ongoing, repeated cycle.

Unlike a company (like Theranos, WeWork), where the lack of value becomes clear after the dump, BTC never had any real value to begin with - only a digital signature which authenticates the asset.

As long as the hype cycle remains, and people (i.e. HODLers) believe in the cycle, there is no reason this couldn't continue indefinitely ... but it's still a Ponzi scheme.

... then again .... I'm no economist.


Barbell Investing

This is a thread to discuss Taleb's barbell investing idea, introduced in Chapter 13 of "The Black Swan."

I'm going to quote Taleb's description of the strategy here, which I believe is ok because he blatantly and purposefully makes all his books freely available via online pdf.

"If you know that you are vulnerable to prediction errors, and if you accept that most "risk measures" are flawed, because of the Black Swan, then your strategy is to be as hyperconservative
and hyperaggressive as you can be instead of being mildly aggressive or conservative. Instead of putting your money in "medium risk" investments (how do you know it is medium risk? by listening to tenure-seeking "experts"?), you need to put a portion, say 85 to 90 percent, in extremely safe instruments, like Treasury bills—as safe a class of instruments as you can manage to find on this planet. The remaining 10 to 15 percent you put in extremely speculative bets, as leveraged as possible (like options), preferably venture capital-style portfolios. That way you do not depend on errors of risk management; no Black Swan can hurt you at all, beyond your "floor," the nest egg that you have in maximally safe investments."

This is in no way a suggestion that any of us should invest in a strategy like this. This is a thread to discuss specific, practical, hypothetical components that an investor in this type of strategy could use to construct their barbell.

Personally, I'm more interested in publicly traded investments than private equity.

I don't have many ideas to share, but here are a few.

Positive Black Swans

Bitcoin - TBH I just sold all of my bitcoin. But I still think of this as an area with possibly unlimited upside. I also *like* the idea of others piling into the trade using stocks like RIOT and bidding up the price of blockchain-related ETPs way above NAV. The next time we see a slew of "I-told-you-so" Bitcoin articles about all those silly tulip chasers, I'll be levering up through instruments like these rather than buying BTC itself, since I'm not a believer anyway. Are there any ways to get direct leveraged exposure to BTC?

Call Options - I am an options noob recently trying to educate myself. My problem with call options is that when they are most useful (after big market declines), they are also most expensive. If this is a misconception, I would like to clear it up. Can anyone recommend good resources to learn options trading? I'm not sure if I should take a class at my local business school, read some books (which ones?), learn through websites (which ones?), or all of the above.

Hedge Fund Copycat - Just last year I put a small amount into gold mining penny stocks highlighted on a series of YT videos by Crescat Capital. I don't really believe any of their story, but I think the fact that they are telling it increases the probability of these penny stocks doing well. One of them is up over 600% since I bought so that's cool. I haven't used this strategy with anything else. Anyone else have ideas for this strategy?

How else can we get exposure to positive black swans in our barbell strategy?

Negative Black Swans

USD - USD losing its status as world reserve currency would be a tremendous black swan. At first thought, it seems like there are lots of direct leveraged trades to short USD via the FOREX exchange (e.g. just go long EURUSD). But on second thought, if all currencies lose against whatever the new reserve currency will be, then it may not be quite so easy to pick relative winners among the losers. What else can we do to get exposure to this event in a barbell?

Put Options - Again, total noob options trader here. I love the irony of puts in that they are cheapest when they are most useful and valuable. How beautiful is that. I get the math behind simple hedging strategies using SPX puts, but what if you want to seek greater profits in your barbell? How do you identify a real turd to maximize the potential payout of your puts? I know, that's a big question. Any books (or anything else?) that you would recommend on the subject? I know that's like asking the industry of short sellers to reveal their secrets, but hey it doesn't hurt to ask.

What other strategies should we stick on the negative side of our barbell?


Barbell Investing

This is a thread to discuss Taleb’s barbell investing idea, introduced in Chapter 13 of “The Black Swan.”

I’m going to quote Taleb’s description of the strategy here, which I believe is ok because he blatantly and purposefully makes all his books freely available via online pdf.

“If you know that you are vulnerable to prediction errors, and if you accept that most “risk measures” are flawed, because of the Black Swan, then your strategy is to be as hyperconservative
and hyperaggressive as you can be instead of being mildly aggressive or conservative. Instead of putting your money in “medium risk” investments (how do you know it is medium risk? by listening to tenure-seeking “experts”?), you need to put a portion, say 85 to 90 percent, in extremely safe instruments, like Treasury bills—as safe a class of instruments as you can manage to find on this planet. The remaining 10 to 15 percent you put in extremely speculative bets, as leveraged as possible (like options), preferably venture capital-style portfolios. That way you do not depend on errors of risk management; no Black Swan can hurt you at all, beyond your “floor,” the nest egg that you have in maximally safe investments.”

This is in no way a suggestion that any of us should invest in a strategy like this. This is a thread to discuss specific, practical, hypothetical components that an investor in this type of strategy could use to construct their barbell.

Personally, I’m more interested in publicly traded investments than private equity.

I don’t have many ideas to share, but here are a few.

Positive Black Swans

Bitcoin – TBH I just sold all of my bitcoin. But I still think of this as an area with possibly unlimited upside. I also *like* the idea of others piling into the trade using stocks like RIOT and bidding up the price of blockchain-related ETPs way above NAV. The next time we see a slew of “I-told-you-so” Bitcoin articles about all those silly tulip chasers, I’ll be levering up through instruments like these rather than buying BTC itself, since I’m not a believer anyway. Are there any ways to get direct leveraged exposure to BTC?

Call Options – I am an options noob recently trying to educate myself. My problem with call options is that when they are most useful (after big market declines), they are also most expensive. If this is a misconception, I would like to clear it up. Can anyone recommend good resources to learn options trading? I’m not sure if I should take a class at my local business school, read some books (which ones?), learn through websites (which ones?), or all of the above.

Hedge Fund Copycat – Just last year I put a small amount into gold mining penny stocks highlighted on a series of YT videos by Crescat Capital. I don’t really believe any of their story, but I think the fact that they are telling it increases the probability of these penny stocks doing well. One of them is up over 600% since I bought so that’s cool. I haven’t used this strategy with anything else. Anyone else have ideas for this strategy?

How else can we get exposure to positive black swans in our barbell strategy?

Negative Black Swans

USD – USD losing its status as world reserve currency would be a tremendous black swan. At first thought, it seems like there are lots of direct leveraged trades to short USD via the FOREX exchange (e.g. just go long EURUSD). But on second thought, if all currencies lose against whatever the new reserve currency will be, then it may not be quite so easy to pick relative winners among the losers. What else can we do to get exposure to this event in a barbell?

Put Options – Again, total noob options trader here. I love the irony of puts in that they are cheapest when they are most useful and valuable. How beautiful is that. I get the math behind simple hedging strategies using SPX puts, but what if you want to seek greater profits in your barbell? How do you identify a real turd to maximize the potential payout of your puts? I know, that’s a big question. Any books (or anything else?) that you would recommend on the subject? I know that’s like asking the industry of short sellers to reveal their secrets, but hey it doesn’t hurt to ask.

What other strategies should we stick on the negative side of our barbell? And how?


Annual January third Proof of Keys event (x-post from /r/Bitcoin)

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/kzfcdn/annual_january_third_proof_of_keys_event/

Mining and Staking: How to Earn Cryptocurrency in 2021

Original: https://safex.org/mining-and-staking-how-to-earn-cryptocurrency-in-2021/

Introduction

In the fast-expanding global crypto economy, cryptocurrency mining and staking are likely on their way to become even more profitable within the years to come. This article will give a short overview and comparison about mining and staking as two methods to earn cryptocurrencies.  

In order to earn a net profit via cryptocurrency mining, the mining profitability has to be positive. The mining profitability is dependent by the market price and the mining cost of the cryptocurrency. Staking has generally a lower cost per earned unit than mining. Mining as well as staking can be either pursued with self-owned hardware or via a third party service provider. Different factors have to be considered in order to decide whether mining or staking will be a profitable investment short-term and also long-term.

For staking, the initial costs are generally minor compared to mining. Staking can be either done with a self-hosted node at home, with a node set up on a virtual instance by a third party infrastructure provider or by using a smart contract. In contrast to mining, the initial staking balance majorly determines the reward.

​

https://preview.redd.it/0w0tw2vjvyb61.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=71c8f02a12b4d797fee1e78b7d3d3310d532a482

The price of electricity

The main factor that is defining the mining profitability - especially in the short-term -  is the price of electricity used by a self-owned mining rig. Many countries charge electricity at lower prices to encourage economic growth. Also, the rates for businesses and private persons can significantly differ. Today, most industrial miners do their business in countries that offer electricity at a low price on power purchasing agreements. On the other hand, most retail miners have to calculate retail price fluctuations when planning their investments. Since cryptocurrency mining has developed into a highly competitive business all around the world, the most profitable miners determine the average profitability and can force other less-profitable players out of the business when they can't compete anymore.

The cost of the mining hardware setup

A significant cost factor that has to be included into the mining profitability calculation is the price of the complete mining hardware setup. These prices tend to fluctuate in cycles with periods when buying equipment is relatively affordable and those toward each hype-cycle's peak when equipment may not only be unaffordable but also unavailable. The price of hardware also varies from manufacturer to manufacturer and depends mostly on the amount of computing power it produces on lower energy consumption. The more computing power a machine produces, the more cryptocurrency you will mine. Also, the lower the setup's energy consumption, the lower your monthly costs will be.

To sum it up, you should decide your setup based on the following factors:

  • The efficiency of the machine - The ratio of hash output to electricity input.
  • The longevity of the machine - It is dependent on the production quality.
  • The price of the machine - It will influence the lifetime mining profitability.
  • Additional costs - Costs of further infrastructure like servers and rental space.

When all parameters are known and the desired cryptocurrency to mine has been decided on, it is possible to set up a complete mining profitability calculation.

Cloud mining via a third party

Cloud mining involves purchasing time on someone else’s machine. Companies charge cloud mining based on the hash rate (processing power) of provided hardware. The higher the hash rate of the machine you rent is, the more coins you can expect to mine but you will also pay more. Some companies require you to pay a monthly fee while others require a year-long contract.

Cloud mining comes with its own set of benefits. For example, mining on someone else’s machine means you don’t have to worry about the reliability of your electricity infrastructure and rate or the initial cost of the hardware setup. On the other hand, in case you sign a year-long contract and the price of the cryptocurrency you are mining decreases, you will be stuck in an unprofitable contract for a long time.

Cryptocurrency emission cycles

Some digital currencies go through emission cycles with events such as block reward halvings. Such a halving occurs when the amount of cryptocurrency entering circulation as a block reward within time - also known as emission rate - is reduced by half. When the amount of new supply entering the system suddenly drops, the cryptocurrency’s price will be driven up as long as the demand remains constant. The time after the halving is crucial for miners, since the profitability drops rapidly until a market price increase of the currency makes up for the reduced block reward again. During this time, miners are mining with reduced profitability or even at a loss and may capitulate as a result. In the case of Bitcoin, halvings occur every 210,000 blocks, which is around every four years, until the maximum supply of 21 million Bitcoin has been mined - probably in the year 2140.

Therefore, when deciding on which cryptocurrency will also be profitable to mine in the long-term, it is important to examine and analyze the historical emission rate as well as the future emission rate. Generally, the demand has to outpace the emission rate at any given point in order to drive up the cryptocurrency's price in the long run. Otherwise, the resulting price decrease will make the mining unprofitable if the coins are held too long.  

An example for a cryptocurrency with an equitable mining algorithm - enabling profitable mining with a home CPU - in it's early phase of emission is the privacy-focused PoW currency Safex Cash (SFX). The coin emission follows an S-shaped curve which makes it attractive for new miners to join the ecosystem especially in the first few years. Towards the end of the regular coin emission, the emission rate decelerates again. This pattern is designed to follow the adoption of the currency.

Staking

Ethereum mining has been and probably will be near the top in the digital currency space when it comes to cryptocurrency mining. This is not only because of the block rewards but also the transaction fee revenue for the miners as the use of the protocol is steadily increasing. However, Ethereum’s blockchain has a somewhat different purpose than Bitcoin’s. Ethereum is a smart contract protocol, which means that although mining has supported the network during the phase when it wasn’t widely used for transactions, the network’s future lies in taking on staking nodes as validators to provide sufficient transaction capacity. Since the regular mining will probably be phased out gradually and a substantial amount of coins will be locked in staking, this may drive up the price in the long-term.  

Staking is a mechanism where users deposit some of their coins into a staking address that is owned by a validator node and lock them for a certain period. The node then secures the network by producing blocks relative to the number of coins deposited and the machine calculates the staking reward from the total amount of coins staked in the network for each node. An example for a service provider that lets you stake any amount of Ethereum and temporarily gives out a placeholder token for the staked ETH which can be used for various purposes in return is Lido.

For the majority of PoS blockchains, the annual percentage rate (APR) can be predicted quite well based on parameters set in the code and the number of staking participants. Generally, the staking rewards are paid out in the same currency as the staking deposits which results in an inflation of a staker's cryptocurrency.

The Safex ecosystem does not only give an opportunity to CPU miners, it also introduces a completely new way of staking and earning cryptocurrency. Although being a 100% PoW network, the Safex Token (SFT) allows users to stake and earn cryptocurrency on the Safex blockchain via a staking mechanism which does not contribute to the consensus mechanism of the chain.

Safex - being considered the best Shopify alternative - has embedded the Safex Token (SFT) into its blockchain which serves to allow users to create accounts based on blockchain eCommerce technology and do online shopping with cryptocurrency. However, Safex Token also allows its holders who lock (stake) their tokens to participate in revenue sharing of the Safex platform. It is a utility token released to provide incentives to the community to support the creation of the Safex marketplace. The proportional reward is determined depending on the amount of Safex Token one locks. In this unique way of staking, the staking reward is not paid out in the staked currency which is therefore not affected by inflation. Also, the annual percentage yield (APY) is not set by the protocol independently from transaction traffic but defined by the use of the protocol.

Anonymity

Cryptocurrency mining is not only a way to set up a profitable business or make a profit in smaller scale. People who care about their privacy can also use it as a way to receive cryptocurrency with no prior history and without the need to register on a cryptocurrency exchange at all. This means economic freedom since the currency is not tied to a specific entity. This feature is only present in equitable proof-of-work cryptocurrencies such as Safex Cash (SFX). This goes also for staking cryptocurrencies with the difference being that already wealthy stakers will also receive significantly higher rewards.

Final thoughts

On January 3rd, 2009 Satoshi Nakamoto, the inventor of Bitcoin, became the first cryptocurrency miner in history. Due to very low competition in the early years of cryptocurrencies and the specific emission schedules, miners were able to accumulate large amounts of Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies. Today, mining has become a highly competitive industry. Mining as well as staking of cryptocurrencies with significant utility value and a projected increase of adoption can be expected to remain a profitable business for years to come.


Weekly Bitcoin / Ethereum Options Trading Series #1

Greetings,

I will be starting a series that I've created in separate options trading subs however I think this subreddit is the most appropriate and relevant for what I've been doing for the last couple of years.
For some context, I've been bullish on Bitcoin since the March equities crash in March of 2020. I expect to remain bullish throughout 2021 as 2020 is the halving year for Bitcoin and in historical cycles the supply shock from the reduced amount of Bitcoin causes rapid and parabolic price appreciation in the year after the halving. Combine this with the fact that central banks around the world are printing trillions of dollars we have ourselves a great recipe for success for some juicy Bitcoin profits. To add, one more bullish indicator has been the level of institutional investment that has been a landmark achievement in the waiting for many years.

Summary:
The week of 1/11/21-1/15/21 was choppy to say the least. The US equities markets completely tanked after Biden's talk of the $1.9T stimulus package which includes $1.4k checks for American citizens. The equities markets reacted poorly to the potentially higher taxes triggering a sell off which cascaded into the crypto markets on the 14th.

Bitcoin breakdown:
After the -30% correction down to $30.5k I took that opportunity to load up on Bitcoin long calls with a calendar spread - this play actually worked out perfectly as intended as Bitcoin bounced back to $40k. My positions and PnL are below. As of 1/17 I'm not in any large positions since price action seems range bound from 33k to 37k (give or take, Bitcoin could easily wick to lower 30's or jump to higher 30's). Unless major news comes out about an institutional buyer, or some other larger macroeconomic catalyst, I expect volatility to subside for this upcoming week. (Please keep in mind that this can literally change at any moment, depending on the news cycle). A major news event to look out for is the ongoing Tether "investigation" from the NYAG. The legal documentation had been submitted as of 1/15/21, but I believe it will take some time for them to review the documents before making any decisions.

https://preview.redd.it/utt2lyf4vyb61.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=6ead0aebceb466e70a39d883482438ec83681422

Ethereum breakdown:
Since the OCC announcement, Ethereum looks like it has just been itching to break new ATHs. ETH price action reminds me of December 2020 when BTC was knocking on the door for new ATHs. It seems like a gravitation pull upwards for Ethereum as DeFi continues to grow at an immense rate and combined with ETH holders staking in ETH 2.0 - to me, it smells like a recipe cooking for new ATHs. I've been building long call positions for the next leg up which have been already juiced up due to volatility increasing since I entered these positions (these are all still open). I took a decent amount of profits from the previous leg up when we shot up about 40% which is why you see some positions with smaller sizes below 5. I'm letting these positions ride into expiration. If all else remains equal, I believe there are strong tailwinds from this OCC news on a very long-term macro view for Ethereum. In the short term I think we'll be chopping along with the equities markets. Similar to Bitcoin, this view can completely change depending on the news cycle or if some institutional investor announces a large investment.

https://preview.redd.it/73i3vjsjxyb61.png?width=802&format=png&auto=webp&s=762a63cfb04447f74e6a17b1c0486a2579da3819

Happy heisting!


[Winner's Thread #62] New start to a new year.

This is not how I was expecting to welcome 2021, but I can't say I'm too upset. My name is Bryant, and I am 27 years old. I'll do my best to make this short and sweet! I'm still shaking from the excitement as I write this.

Reading the post about my picking, I see that I was described as "taking on the role as a lurker" and "specialized discussion". I have to say both of these are spot on. I tend to enjoy being in the background until I find something that I am passionate about. I love to hear other people's opinions before I give my own because each of us has our own story that has helped us to shape said opinions.

While 2020 wasn't a particularly fantastic year by any standard, I had a new passion enter my life in the form of my daughter. She took a few extra days in the hospital but is happy (hopefully) and healthy. While I will continue to live and find happiness for myself, I am beyond excited to share the wonders of our world with her. I know the world isn't full of rainbows and butterflies, but I DO know that there are people in this world who can make it worth living.

What would I do with the money? The Million (haha) dollar question. I do have bills and a lot of this will definitely be going towards those. That being said, I can't in good mind not do something enjoyable with such a generous gift. Since I haven't been able, I will most definitely be treating my wife in some way, shape, or form. It will definitely be a safe method because we are still conscious of world events. Also, I noticed one of the top comments on the entry page, and due to that comment, I will be making a donation to the American Cancer Society with a potion of the funds that I receive. I don't want to go into the negative portions of my life because that shouldn't be what this is about. My life isn't perfect but I know we all have our struggles that no one can compare. I want to do my part in making someone else's life better.

One last note because you don't know me and I don't know you. If you don't want to donate to me or if you are unable, that's fine, no hard feelings. If you'd rather tell me that you contributed to a charity, please do! I want you to feel that your contribution is going to something you support.


Everything listed should result in direct lines of payment to /u/MontyTitan. We ask all users to donate at least $1 USD. The Drawing is also listed for users who want to see the results and confirm the validity of the winner.

Drawing: https://old.reddit.com/r/millionairemakers/comments/kz1zho/draw_62/

PayPal: https://paypal.me/montytitan

Venmo: @Bryant-Montgomery

Square Cash: $BryantMontgomery

Bitcoin: 32mtkqGhojkPguHuKjtHeN1DF57vCtWkr2

Bitcoin Cash: qzxk36stu8mw08pdngwcyy8qu2t3mls3qu7z5q7tq9

Ethereum: 0x9c9F7b2D52C1387977c2cc0d080754002597Cc22

Litecoin: MKQbBaPMm7qevGveknzvuiYx4Amzje5gsg

Dogecoin: DJ7BXbV5EAhSFwFLbb5kXCsL15LPLQ48SM

Nano: nano_3bytg43wxdx5i9mzwajuncc6s4dibxndkc4b7fycygmutihw9hgzdgokma5b

Edit: Formatting