Monday, May 10, 2021

PSFE (Paysafe): A better way to bet on multiple high growth companies like DRAFTKINGS, BARSTOOL, FORTNITE, TWITCH, YOUTUBE, SPOTIFY, ETC.

Paysafe is one hell of a company. They are a fin-tech like PayPal and Squares, thus should be given a higher multiple for valuation. They got a lot of exciting and growth customers like Barstool (PENN), YouTube (Google), Twitch (AMZN), FanDuel (PDYPY), Roblox (RBLX), CoinBase (COIN), Visa (V), ApplePay (APPL), BetMGM (MGM), Spotify (SPOT), Microsoft/Xbox etc., and on top of that they got a huge digital wallet (#2 in market share) where you can trade/buy the fast-growing cryptocurrencies like Bitcoins. I truly believed this Paysafe is undervalued compared to its peers. You can read a very good Paysafe DD below on reddit and it gives a lot of insight of Paysafe valuation and bear cases:

https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/mysz54/reviewing_the_bear_case_on_paysafe_psfe/

(the link above is a really really good read with lots of info about Paysafe, so I’m not going to repeat most of the good points the author mentioned in that sub.)

Most of the time analysis use assumptions to make predictions on future growth. As an example, EV-related stocks (PLUG, BLNK, QS, LAZR, NKLA, BLDP, etc) get higher or ridiculous valuation based on assumption that gasoline cars will eventually be phased out. As you can see most if not all of these companies are unprofitable and some don’t even have revenue, yet worth billions. While this assumption may be accurate, it is extremely hard to know when will growth begin to accelerate. Because of this predictive nature, it’s really hard to know how long you will have to hold onto the stocks before they pop. When or if it will pop is anyone's guess. So while holding onto these stocks will likely result in wild price swings thus high risk / high rewards.

But what if you have the data before you showing the financial growth of your customers or partners? If your customers/partners' revenue grows, it’s more likely than not they are using more of your products or services. Paysafe is one such company where you can actually look at their customers/partners' financial reports to predict where the company will go in the future and when growth will start. For this reason, Paysafe is more of a lower risk but still has high reward potential.

Paysafe will be reporting earning for the very first time as a public company again on May 11. The good news is we already have their customers results in and here are some breakdown of their 1st QTR results showing huge growth:

  1. PENN (Reported May 7, 2021) - “Penn National’s income from operations rose to $216.5 million in the first quarter against ($560.6) million in the prior-year quarter. Adjusted EBITDAR jumped 77.2% from the year-ago quarter to $447 million. Moreover, adjusted EBITDAR margin expanded to 35.1% from 22.6% a year ago.” ( source: https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/1515673/penn-national-penn-q1-earnings-revenues-beat-estimates )
  2. DraftKing ( Reported May 7, 2021) - “DraftKings is raising its fiscal year 2021 revenue guidance from a range of $900 million to $1 billion to a range of $1.05 billion to $1.15 billion, which equates to year-over-year growth of 63% to 79% and a 16% increase compared to the midpoint of our previous guidance”

(Source: https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/05/07/2225374/0/en/DraftKings-Reports-First-Quarter-2021-Results-and-Raises-2021-Revenue-Guidance.html )

  1. Spotify (April 28th, 2021)- “Revenue increased 16% to €2.15 billion ($2.6 billion) from €1.85 billion ($2.22 billion) in the same period last year….” (source: https://www.billboard.com/articles/business/streaming/9564180/spotify-q1-2021-earnings-report/)

  2. Youtube/Google ( April 27th, 2021 ) - “ In its first-quarter earnings report Tuesday, Google parent company Alphabet said YouTube brought in revenue of $6.01 billion in advertising revenue during the quarter — up from $4 billion from a year ago, for a growth rate of 49%. That’s an acceleration over its 46% growth in Q4. It’s also nearly twice the growth rate of Netflix, which reported 24% revenue growth in Q1, and expects growth to slow to 19% next quarter.” (source: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/27/youtube-could-soon-equal-netflix-in-revenue.html )

  3. Skillz ( May 4, 2021 ) - “Revenue grew to $83.7 million during the first quarter of 2021, up 92% over the prior year. Gross profit grew to $79.4 million during the first quarter of 2021, up 95% over the prior year.” (source: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210504006307/en/CORRECTING-and-REPLACING-Skillz-Reports-Record-Q1-Revenue-and-Raises-2021-Guidance )

As you can see these Paysafe’s customers/partners are reporting explosive growth. While some of these companies may report an earning loss it may be due to higher expenses such as customers acquisition cost (i.e. Draftking). However, here we are more focused on their revenue as the more transactions they do the more likely all or part of that transaction is done by Paysafe. These companies reported earnings before Paysafe, so it can be highly expected Paysafe will report a very good earning and future growth projection tomorrow ( May 11).

Several things to note about Paysafe besides their customer’s earning growth. These factors will also influence Paysafe’s future growth:

  1. They are a monopoly when it comes to iGaming/Sport Betting as you can see the explosive growth by DKNG, MGM, PENN, SKLZ, etc.
  2. Paysafe took a hit during the pandemic because they also do offline transaction processing, but now things are opening up we can expect going forward these offline transactions will grow again. Also, when re-opening occur, more sport events will occur thus more betting means more transactions for Paysafe.
  3. They are #2 in digital wallets and you can buy digital currency with the wallet. These currency has been generating huge revenue for PayPal and SQ (more on this below)

Finally, both PayPal and SQ reported earning before Paysafe and their results beat estimation:

Paypal earning ( May 5, 2021) “ Revenue: $6.03 billion vs. $5.90 billion expected by Refinitiv” (source: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/05/paypal-pypl-earnings-q1-2021.html )

Square earning ( May 6, 2021 ) “Square reported a profit of 41 cents per share vs. 16 cents per share expected in a Refinitiv survey of analysts. It also brought in $5.06 billion of revenue vs. $3.36 billion expected by Refinitiv.” ( source: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/06/square-sq-earnings-q1-2021.html)

So I can say with confidence Paysafe will likely beat their own guidance for Q1 on May 11th. For those of you who don’t know Paysafe, they are not a small player. Their transaction volume is about that of SQ ~$100 Billion. If Paysafe is able to show growth on par with PayPal and SQ they should be trading at a much higher multiple. See the reddit link above for DD on valuation.

In summary, I think Paysafe is a low risk / high reward stock compare to other fintech. Their growth is easier to predict as we can rely on their publicly traded customers data which is showing high growth going forward. They got the 2nd largest digital wallet. They are involved in the highly popular and fast growth digital currency market. I believe as a monopoly in iGaming/Sport Betting their growth will be massive when the 4 largest states: CA, TX, NY, FL begin to allow online sport betting. This is something about Paysafe that I like so much because no other fintech has this space. This is a massive high growth area and they own the space. For these reason, I am extremely bullish and I like Paysafe for both short and longer term play.

Disclaimer: I own Paysafe commons, warrants, and option calls. I am not a financial adviser. No part of what I wrote above shall be constructed as financial or investment advice. Speak with a professional before making important decisions about your money, your professional life, or your personal life.


South African Tax Collector Targeting Crypto Investors in Its Bid to Raise Extra Revenues

"Latest reports from South Africa suggest that the country’s tax agency will now be targeting cryptocurrency investors as it attempts to increase the total value of revenues collected. Alongside high net worth individuals and offshore investors, digital currency holders now constitute an area that is “likely to yield much of the extra tax” for the revenue collector.

Crypto Investors Unaware of Tax Liabilities

However, according to a report, many South African cryptocurrency holders are “oblivious of the fact that trading in cryptocurrency renders them liable for tax.” The report, which relies on the expert opinion of Thomas Lobban, says the “South African Revenue Service (SARS) (currently) has cryptocurrency trading very much in its sights.”

Further, Lobban who is the legal manager at Tax Consulting South Africa said:

As with any other asset class, investors must understand their tax obligations in relation to their crypto investments, and plan accordingly. If they do not, then chances are they could find themselves facing an unwelcome tax bill down the line.

Different Crypto Trades

Meanwhile, the report also quotes Lobban explaining how the different types of crypto trades can have a bearing on the kind of tax that will be paid. For instance, Lobban asserts that “crypto transactions could be deemed to be capital in nature and thus liable only for capital gains tax.”

On the other hand, some transactions “could be deemed to be revenue-earning in nature, and would thus be taxed according to the taxpayer’s normal tax rate as per the tax tables.” The tax consultant also points out that when “a trade is made between, say, bitcoin and ethereum, the notional profits of that transaction would also be taxable.” This position is in contrast to the prevailing belief that a “tax event” only occurs when the cryptocurrency is withdrawn and converted into legal tender.

In the meantime, Lobban reveals that SARS is already requesting information on crypto transactions on audit letters issued to taxpayers. In addition, the revenue collector is reportedly “investing heavily in its IT capabilities.” The report adds that such capabilities will enable SARS “to analyse financial and transaction data more effectively, and identify transactions in and out of crypto platforms.”"

https://news.bitcoin.com/south-african-tax-collector-targeting-crypto-investors-in-its-bid-to-raise-extra-revenues/

by Terence Zimwara


What's his deal with doge?

Doge is similar to Bitcoin and Litecoin in tech and mining method. It's poorly maintained. It's unlimited unlike BTC. The managers have no future vision for it unlike Ethereum which is planning to transit to Proof of Staking making it more sustainable and energy efficient in future.

It was started as a sarcasm, a parody of so many Altcoins, to make fun of them that People would by anything. And people literally did.

The whale event happened yesterday, makes me skeptical of Doge. Most people are here to make money, become millionaires overnight, so they will dump it.

(Don't get me wrong, I'm too part of the Hodlers Wagon because I don't want to be left behind. And in general people who want to make money should be accepted, because liquidity is healthy for any currency.)

So why is Elon musk interested in it so much? I hope this post didn't get removed.


Event despite the recent correction from $64,789 to $47,060 the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. Any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders.

https://forexcentral.info/btcusd-10-05-2021

Sunday, May 9, 2021

Spent the day promoting BCH

Even though it got cool today today was a pretty good day.

It started out with a txt from an acquaintance out of the blue asking me how to buy crypto and asked if they could give my number to anther looking too.

With so much being canceled last year and even this year already one event finally took place this weekend so I spent part of the day being out.

While out found several things I was interested in purchasing. So what did I do?

I asked do you take crypto unfortunately all said no they weren't capable of doing so.

However both agreed it was something they should start to do. I informed them of the simple way to accept BCH and provided each $1 in BCH which I sent through sharable links through emails. Now not only will they download the bitcoin.com wallet I now have emails where they can choose to reach back out for more help or I can contact them to see if they are interested and need help doing so.

After the event the other person called and we spent almost a good 2 hours on the phone discussing things crypto and wants help early this week we plan to meet somewhere and help get setup.

It's not much. But it's honest work.


Biden's capital gain hike and your assets.

I will have to start by saying that I am not a financial advisor nor a tax expert so as such take my article with a grain of salt, and what I am writing doesn't not represent any advice whatsoever and it is just my opinion. With that out of the way let's start.

The new capital gains seems that will only apply to the wealthy and it will only kick in after $1,000,000.00. So you owning one Bitcoin Cash won't be affected by yet, not at least while BCH is under $1000 each. Those that will be affected immediately will be those living in the US, or that are citizens of the US, or that are living within the nation territories, everyone else may be affected but indirectly.

As it is right now many people are already paying around or close to 50% and if this tax is approve many will be push to a higher tax bracket where some citizens may start to pay over 50% of their wealth to the government. Let's us talk some numbers next.

Taxes on long-term capital gains – generally classified as an asset that's held for more than one year – currently range from 0% to 20%, depending on a person's income. Wealthier investors are also subject to an additional 3.8% tax on long- and short-term capital gains that's used to fund ObamaCare. The average top tax rate on capital gains at the state level is about 5.2%.

So if you start to combine all of the taxes together that's when you get to the magic number of 50% and in some cases even more, mind you that those combine taxes are paid they are not imaginary they are actual taxes that Americans must pay. So let's put some states as example: California's combined state and federal capital gains tax would be the highest at 56.7%, followed by New York at 54.3% and New Jersey at 54.2%.

Now you must know that capital gains are taxes to the gains not your principal but you also have to pay or had paid already taxes in your principal, what I am trying to say is that if you have managed to get to one million dollars they government wants to take half of your income or close to it once you combine all of the taxes together when you combine your state taxes and federal taxes that's when the see the tax bite.

Well if you make less than one million dollars a year you shouldn't worry, right? Well not so fast many people own houses in the or have a mortgage that in 30 years it will be paid in full, probably you will die before that happens but your children will inherit your assets, well they will have to pay taxes on that, in some states, and the price of houses has gone up recently which means that maybe your children will own some taxes on top of all the taxes that you paid when you were alive. And selling a house also is classified as capital gains, once you discount the loan that the bank gave you. So if you sell your house after the tax proposal is pass chances are you will pay more in taxes.

When it comes to stocks and paper wealth you are out of luck because there is a paper trail and as such you will have to pay what the government says, many wealthy individuals hired tax experts to try to find ways to minimize the tax burden, but going from 20% to almost 40% that will be a hard pill to take in my opinion.

And lastly cryptos I guess that's what you were waiting for when I was going to talk about cryptos, well if you leave in the US and hold crypto assets you have to pay capital gains, if you mined within its borders, if you bought within its borders, if you traded within it borders, you must pay. But the tax increase will only affect you if you have more than 20 BTC, or more than 1100 BCH.

If you bought your coins through a fiat exchange like Gemini, Coinbase or Robinhood or any service located in the US, or that ask for documents when you sign up chances the government knows exactly how much Bitcoin you have, and if you move your funds that will count as a capital event which you are suppose to report in your taxes, and if you sell you must also report your loses or gains like a little good slave that you are.

Now if you own those amounts the better advice will be if you must sell for fiat report your taxes, but if you don't want to pay taxes just don't sell and borrow against it if you have a business opportunity that may pay you more or put passive income in your wallet, otherwise leave your coins where they are. The capital gains will be a hard bite no way around it, but there are those who can be saved. And you can save on taxes in the future as well. Not financial advice or tax advice.

If you have let say $1000 and want to invest into Bitcoin Cash, you should buy your BCH or any other crypto for that matter with cash, and keep your mouth close about it, don't tell anyone that you hold 1 BCH. Those that bought their Bitcoin BTC let say at $1000 by using p2p exchanges they don't have to report anything to anybody, and they can just cross the US border and go to another country which doesn't have capital gains taxes or any other heavy taxes on the rich.

And this is one thing that everyone regardless if you are poor or rich right now should consider, which is future taxes, make no mistake the future of Bitcoin is Bitcoin Cash in my opinion and as such I do think BCH will reach a total price of $100 million dollars or more, now if you don't want to have other people putting their hands in your pocket be smart about it and start buying your Bitcoin Cash with cash. Not financial advice once again.

You see the only way to not pay taxes if to say to the government that you own nothing, even if you do and to do that you need to use private services to buy your initial amount, and that's another advantage added to Bitcoin Cash over Bitcoin Core. BTC is already expensive so as such the government will try to tax those who own that asset first, and if you hold one BCH which is not even close to the limit you will be okay, but you must buy your BCH in a way that there is no trail of you owning it, a good way will be to buy it with cash or with other crypto but has gone from fiat to crypto, crypto to crypto without kyc and crypto to BCH at the end.

Now why would you do that? because in the future you don't know how crazy politicians will be get today that 100% hike tax is only for people earning $1m or more, but tomorrow that could be $1000. The money machine is inflating your money supply, and they are printing bills which will bring inflation which means that assets will go higher in price and as such the government want to take your property.

And the taxes is not the only thing that you should expect from your government you will see soon capital control in the land of the slave, yes many stock holders will sell if that proposal is pass and they will try to get that money into other assets where that tax is hard to track, metals is one of them, so I suspect that immigration will be waiting for you at the border to see if you are not trying to get your gold to the other side without paying 100% in taxes to the government.

Smart money is already planing how they are going to avoid or find loopholes to this tax or pass it to consumers, but you can bet that the rich are already thinking how they will not pay this tax, and the government in response will impose capital control laws. Which will effectively be a trap for money inside the nation.

This has happen in the pass and will happen again, those that live from the government want to tax those that produce until a point where the one that produce is left with nothing and he loses his incentive to keep on working, why would you work if all your effort will be given to someone else that hasn't worked and that is just someone living for free?

Unfortunately our system is full of those that won't want to work, starting for the ultra rich who just want to live off the backs of the working poor, and those who live from the government that don't want to work because the government pays their bills too. Eventually if you taxes someone too much they will just pack and leave, and you as a Bitcoin Cash should think the same, if the government wants more than 10% of your cryptos is time to move somewhere else.

I have to write this when it comes to these sort of topics, I am mentally ill and I am just writing nonsense because I forgot to take my pill today, once I do I will realize that I am only writing nonsense, so I apologize in advance.

https://read.cash/@francis105d1

https://read.cash/@francis105d1/bidens-capital-gain-hike-and-your-assets-c44c1e4e


United States Dollar is next.

As we all know many countries are trying to regulate crypto currencies because they are a threat their money printing monopoly, and because central banks together with central governments want to keep on printing money without having the limit of inflation, and they are disguising their crimes as regulations.

When a government starts to issue orders that don't benefit the majority of its citizen and only the ultra rich and they wish to trap your hard earn assets on a cycle of hyperinflation that's when it is your right to change your money for something that will help you fight the devaluation of your money.

Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely, governments issue fiat currency which is back by nothing and only by the authority of itself, and the population is willing to accept that because most of the time governments are kept under control and they don't print too much many, but eventually they will print your money away where the benefits of inflation starts to hurt the regular citizen more and more. By first expanding and second reducing the money supply banks pretty much reduce or increase inflation, and by the same method they produce booms and bust in the economy.

But at the end of the day, the money printing will make all the regular citizen just serfs and peasants, but with today's technology humanity can space that by putting their money into the future next money Bitcoin BCH. Of course, central banks and the government will try to fight this to the last moment and we are seeing this already happening, in places where inflation and hyperinflation is already happening, the question is when it will be the turn for your country to try to ban crypto currencies as a whole and specially Bitcoin.

In Turkey the government is banning the use of Bitcoin as a peer to peer currency because that's the real threat to governments the peer to peer aspect not anything else, and Bitcoin supporters are right on this one, if they keep the blocks at 1 Mb for block Bitcoin will be an speculation asset at best and nothing more on which you will only bet on price going up or down in respect to your local fiat, which means that your local government and bank can make that fiat you got worthless, and so what could had stopped will just be value in the same fiat that is being devalued, in other words you don't get to space inflation or hyperinflation. But Bitcoin Cash in the other hand is a peer to peer currency.

In the case of Bitcoin BCH the government of Turkey is under direct threat and that government will have to stop printing or risk hyperinflation and so the rise of Bitcoin BCH by the people who wishes to conserve their purchasing value, in the case of BCH in Turkey they can still trade at exchanges where governments can track it and tax it because of capital gains but once people start to use as currency and salaries are paid in BCH the usage of central exchanges will be less and so the government will lose the ability to track who owns what.

When deep stick hits the fan, the government goes to the point, it is peer to peer which governments around the world fear, nothing more nothing less, everything else is just noise. If you want to lose purchasing power use fiat currencies or Bitcoin BTC because even if you gain ten thousand times or 10,000x your money with Bitcoin BTC the very next day your government print 10000% yesterday's supply you have gain nothing at that point, and as an speculation asset it will mean you will only exchange it for fiat because no one will be able to pay the transaction fees anyway if you try to use it as currency.

And that's why Turkey's government want to ban peer to peer because they know that they can make your store of value or speculation asset worthless by tomorrow, but if you use Bitcoin as peer to peer (which you can't you can only use Bitcoin BCH as peer to peer) they can print all the money in the world and you won't lose your purchasing power.

Bitcoin BCH is peer to peer because it has low transaction fees, and that's exactly what that government is banning, now all of that will come to the United States also it is just that the Federal Reserve is not desperate enough to try to implement this kind of draconian laws just yet, but make no mistake United States dollar is going the same way of the Zimbabwe dollar thanks to the Federal Reserve printing money which now they call QE, stimulus checks, and outright corporations bailouts.

I am not telling you not to accept your stimulus checks if you get them, I am telling you that if you have some extra money put it into something that saves your purchasing power against inflation and hyperinflation, and if cryptos are in your menu to choose Bitcoin Cash BCH because it is Bitcoin and because in the future you will be able to use as a currency that could increase in purchasing power thanks in part because it actually work as peer to peer but because it has limited supply and no government can print it or ban it either.

Yes, at first you will see that other countries that you know have bad currency policies will start trying to ban the peer to peer aspects of Bitcoin BCH, but your own country also is doing, and it is not only the US, it is every country in the world that is doing the same thing, printing currency and trying to ban the use of Bitcoin BCH as a currency, but US Dollar is a world's reserve so when that currency goes it will be a world wide event. Try to see beyond the store of value narrative because that's not what the governments are fighting which means they are confident they can make that redundant, they are only fighting that which will benefit you the regular citizen in the future. If government is not banning store of value or speculation asset it's because they know that is not a threat. What is good for you is not so good for your government printing currency monopoly.

https://read.cash/@francis105d1

https://read.cash/@francis105d1/united-states-dollar-is-next-1d322c0c