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Sunday, December 7, 2025
Down More Than 60% From Its High, Is MSTR Dip a cheap buy?
Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) is the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin and one of the biggest bulls of the top cryptocurrency. But amid weakness in the crypto market of late, its shares have been in a free fall. And that's putting it lightly. In just the past six months, the stock has lost more than half of its value.
Heading into trading on Wednesday, the stock was down 60% from its 52-week high of $457.22, which it reached back in July. Is the sell-off in Strategy's stock overdone, and could this be a good time to invest in the tech company, multiple exchanges like bitget have rolled out events to facilitate buying top stocks like MSTR and other recenty during the Stock futures rush and have seen significant engagement...
Is this a Dip to buy?
The Weekly Market Report
Earnings Season Insights Tech Sector Highlights: •ORCL (Thu): Consensus $1.42 EPS on $15.3B rev, cloud/AI growth key; beat reinforces enterprise shift. •ADBE (Thu): $4.64 EPS est., creative/cloud subs scrutinized post-AI integrations. •AVGO (Thu): $1.41 EPS on $9.3B, AI semis demand critical amid supply chain noise.Signal: Strong guides extend tech rally; misses trigger semis/software rotation. Consumer Discretionary Sector Challenges: •CPB (Tue): $1.05 EPS est., staples resilience vs. pricing power erosion. •GME (Wed): Volatile meme history; focus on cash burn, holiday sales. •CHWY (Wed): $0.22 EPS, pet spending amid consumer caution.Signal: Weak holiday cues pressure retail; outperformance needs cost control proof.
Key Takeaways: FOMC Dec 9-10 targets 25bps cut (markets 85% prob per CME FedWatch), reflecting labor softening and PCE cooling, though hawk-dove split widens (Morgan Stanley/JPM now dovish). Signal: Cut lifts REITs/small caps (KRE rebound potential); pause re-prices growth lower. Implications for Traders: Dot plot may signal 2-3 more 2026 cuts to 3%; Powell presser key for terminal rate clues. Strategy: Position rate-sensitives pre-meeting, hedge via options on surprises. Inflation Data Release Latest Month-over-Month Metrics: Dallas Fed PCE proxy 2.8% (cooling), factory orders mixed; no major prints next week but FOMC integrates recent CPI/PCE (2.4% YoY core). Signal: Sustained disinflation backs cuts without wage reacceleration fears.
Geopolitical Events Geopolitical tensions continue to impact markets: META’s Limitless AI wearable buy advances hardware AI; Embraer/Eve-Beta $1B eVTOL motor pact validates urban air mobility. Offsets: House probes AAPL/GOOGL on ICE-tracking apps; film lobby vs. Netflix-WBD monopoly risks. Signal: Innovation tailwinds vs. Big Tech/media regulation drag. Sector Rotation
Sectors gaining traction: •Tech/AI: META/ORCL/AVGO momentum. •Industrials: eVTOL (Beta/Eve). •Staples/Consumer: COST resilience proxy.Underperformers: Bonds (ZB), crypto (BTC/GBTC/MIAN), regionals (KRE), gaming (BJK), shipping (SHLD), global (MSCI), vol (VIX/VVIX/SKEW).Trading Strategies: Buy leader dips above ~688 doji support; short laggard breaks. Premarket: Tactical KRE/crypto fades.
Cryptocurrency Movements Bitcoin: Probes 91,000 resistance (prior rejection); GBTC outflows/MIAN weakness cap upside, 85k support key. Signal: FOMC cut catalyst or equity risk-off breakdown.Ethereum: 3,100 pivot; hold enables altcoin rotation, loss adds macro correlation downside. Economic Indicators Unemployment Claims: Recent 220k supports soft landing pre-FOMC.Retail Sales: Monitored for holiday; COST earnings gauges consumer durability amid CHWY/GME tests.
Technical Analysis
Key Chart Patterns: S&P/SPX doji at 688 resistance (attachment: prior fail here, overnight hold eyes breakout). Failure risks 670s fade. •MFI >50: Buying inflows bullish bias. •DMI: +DI > -DI, ADX>25 confirms uptrend. •DMA: Price above signals momentum continuity.
The weekly market indicator
Earnings Season Insights Tech Sector Highlights: •ORCL (Thu): Consensus $1.42 EPS on $15.3B rev, cloud/AI growth key; beat reinforces enterprise shift. •ADBE (Thu): $4.64 EPS est., creative/cloud subs scrutinized post-AI integrations. •AVGO (Thu): $1.41 EPS on $9.3B, AI semis demand critical amid supply chain noise.Signal: Strong guides extend tech rally; misses trigger semis/software rotation. Consumer Discretionary Sector Challenges: •CPB (Tue): $1.05 EPS est., staples resilience vs. pricing power erosion. •GME (Wed): Volatile meme history; focus on cash burn, holiday sales. •CHWY (Wed): $0.22 EPS, pet spending amid consumer caution.Signal: Weak holiday cues pressure retail; outperformance needs cost control proof.
Key Takeaways: FOMC Dec 9-10 targets 25bps cut (markets 85% prob per CME FedWatch), reflecting labor softening and PCE cooling, though hawk-dove split widens (Morgan Stanley/JPM now dovish). Signal: Cut lifts REITs/small caps (KRE rebound potential); pause re-prices growth lower. Implications for Traders: Dot plot may signal 2-3 more 2026 cuts to 3%; Powell presser key for terminal rate clues. Strategy: Position rate-sensitives pre-meeting, hedge via options on surprises. Inflation Data Release Latest Month-over-Month Metrics: Dallas Fed PCE proxy 2.8% (cooling), factory orders mixed; no major prints next week but FOMC integrates recent CPI/PCE (2.4% YoY core). Signal: Sustained disinflation backs cuts without wage reacceleration fears.
Geopolitical Events Geopolitical tensions continue to impact markets: META’s Limitless AI wearable buy advances hardware AI; Embraer/Eve-Beta $1B eVTOL motor pact validates urban air mobility. Offsets: House probes AAPL/GOOGL on ICE-tracking apps; film lobby vs. Netflix-WBD monopoly risks. Signal: Innovation tailwinds vs. Big Tech/media regulation drag. Sector Rotation
Sectors gaining traction: •Tech/AI: META/ORCL/AVGO momentum. •Industrials: eVTOL (Beta/Eve). •Staples/Consumer: COST resilience proxy.Underperformers: Bonds (ZB), crypto (BTC/GBTC/MIAN), regionals (KRE), gaming (BJK), shipping (SHLD), global (MSCI), vol (VIX/VVIX/SKEW).Trading Strategies: Buy leader dips above ~688 doji support; short laggard breaks. Premarket: Tactical KRE/crypto fades.
Cryptocurrency Movements Bitcoin: Probes 91,000 resistance (prior rejection); GBTC outflows/MIAN weakness cap upside, 85k support key. Signal: FOMC cut catalyst or equity risk-off breakdown.Ethereum: 3,100 pivot; hold enables altcoin rotation, loss adds macro correlation downside.
Economic Indicators Unemployment Claims: Recent 220k supports soft landing pre-FOMC.Retail Sales: Monitored for holiday; COST earnings gauges consumer durability amid CHWY/GME tests.
Technical Analysis
Key Chart Patterns: S&P/SPX doji at 688 resistance (attachment: prior fail here, overnight hold eyes breakout). Failure risks 670s fade. •MFI >50: Buying inflows bullish bias. •DMI: +DI > -DI, ADX>25 confirms uptrend. •DMA: Price above signals momentum continuity.
Saturday, December 6, 2025
[HashRace] 🎄 Christmas HashRace Referral Raffle is LIVE! (Dec 6–25) 🎁🔥
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Thoughts on Current State of Market Affairs.
With about 100,000 unique visitors per day, having made some deeper connections in the hobby like to think have a good read on what's happening. At least, the financial side of the things. There's a lot up in the air right now creating a lot of turmoil, never seen a faster 180 from demand rejecting the current market prices for example. So am going to give thoughts on current state of market affairs and what think could happen next.
Crypto & AI Stocks Sell-Off - There's been a correlation between the hobby and crypto market for at least five years now, speculative funds moves together these days. In the last two months, Bitcoin has dropped nearly 30% from its peak of $125k. Most speculative data center and AI related stocks including NVDA down 15-25% as well. Before the gains made, used to go to big Pokemon purchases, sealed, but when these markets crash demand freezes over.
When markets sell off, there's always mental battle of holding strong to your convictions vs. the taxing mental decay of seeing losses compound. Many investors begin to feel "learned helplessness", which is a psychological state where an ones believes they have no control over their situation due to repeated uncontrollable negative events. If these speculative markets sell-off more, we will see demand continue to freeze over and prices come down.
30th Could Be a Doozy - Am very big bull for what 30th could bring, but my grandest expectations have since tamed. The fed is beginning to lower rates. However, if the Fed is too slow to lower rates while liquidity conditions remain tight, growth and corporate earnings could suffer. This will trigger a sell-off before any rate cut relief comes. Historically, the market has always sold off when the fed begins rate cuts who're usually too slow to react.
What this means in layman's terms, things could get really bad next year then afterwards another big V shaped bull run. The cycle continues, the rich will buy during economic downturns, the less fortune will be forced to sell precious belongings just to stay afloat. We could see next year be an incredible 30th anniversary product wise, but many tapped out economically due to poorly ran and slow to react economic policy. The layoffs already beginning.
Holding Through Cycles is Key! - If 30th is a doozy, amazing, you'll be able to find product and deals "if" you have the funds to spend on what are unnecessary goods/luxury items. More cycles will continue, we will see another great depression eventually being realistic. The general rule still applies, hold long 10+ years for optimal results. Pokemon is the biggest collectable hobby in the world, the largest media franchise, beloved national treasure of an entire country. So, reframing your perspective is key. Anytime the market is roaring and pumping you are not getting a good deal. $300 booster boxes was terrible!
When market is boring, when prices are crashing, when product is readily available these are the best moments to be happy for. This post may sound like doom & gloom, the reality is a doozy of a 30th could be the best version of any 30th we could get. The goal always is to buy things which we can hold through cycles. This is why I'm wanting to buy shares over LEAPS more now for example. What is something we can hold onto for the next 20-30 years which will appreciate, gaining strength during each economic cycle? This is how the rich stay rich, growing their wealth. This is the key, holding through cycles.
Friday, December 5, 2025
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